Original title: November 70 city house prices released: Beijing second-hand house prices fell for 5 months
The November real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics of sihai.com yesterday showed that in terms of housing prices, the growth rate of various house price indexes was flat or slowed down compared with that in October. Among them, the month on month and year-on-year growth rates of new commercial housing price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities were 0.3% and 7.3% respectively in November, while the second-hand housing price index in November was 0.1% and 3.8% respectively. In terms of specific cities, Yinchuan led the country in terms of month on month increase in new house prices, while Urumqi led the decline. Tangshan second-hand house price month on month rise led the country, Shaoguan led the decline.
The performance of real estate investment remained strong and the market turnover rebounded in the short term. From January to November, China's real estate development investment reached 12126.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% year on year. From the perspective of sales performance, from January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1.49 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 14.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3%.
What is the future market trend? Some analysts say that it is expected that the growth rate of house prices in 2020 is expected to narrow, and it is still positive year-on-year. From the sales point of view, the end of the year, real estate enterprises will face the performance of the customs, will step up sales promotion, in the short term, the sales growth rate will rise slightly. 'it is estimated that in 2020, the sales area of commercial housing may decline steadily, with a year-on-year balance or a decrease of less than 5%. There is an analytical representation.
New house price: Yinchuan leads the rise and Urumqi leads the decline
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the month on month and year-on-year growth rates of new commercial residential housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities were 0.3% and 7.3% respectively, which were 0.2% and 0.7% lower than those in October. In terms of quantity, 44 new residential cities saw price increases in November, which is the lowest point in the market in recent two years. This has been a rise in the number of cities for six consecutive months.
From the month on month data of newly built commercial residential buildings, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in four first tier cities increased by 0.6% month on month, 0.5% higher than that in October. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose by 1.7%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while Guangzhou decreased by 0.5%. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in 31 second tier cities increased by 0.2% month on month, down 0.3 percentage points compared with October; the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 35 third tier cities increased by 0.5% and 0.3% month on month, respectively, and the growth rates were 0.1% and 0.2% lower than those in October.
Among them, Yinchuan, Tangshan, Beijing, Jinzhou, Hohhot, Xining, Lanzhou, Changchun, Qinhuangdao and Wuhan ranked the top in terms of month on month growth, with the growth rates of 1.9%, 1.9%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.3%, 1.1%, 1%, 1.8%.
Urumqi, Jinan, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Anqing, Zhanjiang, Zunyi and Luzhou were among the top cities in the decline rate of new residential buildings, with a month on month decrease of 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5 and 0.4% respectively.
From the perspective of the year-on-year growth of new commercial residential buildings, in November, newly-built commercial residential buildings in first tier cities increased by 4.9% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in October. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in second tier cities increased by 7.9% year-on-year, 0.8% lower than that in October, falling for seven consecutive months. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in the third tier cities increased by 7.0% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points lower than that in October respectively, the same or falling for 8 consecutive months.
Second hand house price: Tangshan leads the country in terms of price increase, and Beijing has fallen for 5 consecutive months
In November, the second-hand housing price index was 0.1% month on month and 3.8% year-on-year, which was flat with October and narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared with October. In terms of quantity, there were 33 cities where the prices of second-hand houses fell in November.
Sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in four first tier cities rose by 0.2% month on month, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in October. Among them, Beijing and Guangzhou fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, Shanghai was flat and Shenzhen rose 1.4%. Sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in 31 second tier cities rose 0.1% month on month, the same as in October. The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in 35 third tier cities rose by 0.3% month on month, down 0.2% from October.
Tangshan, Harbin, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Xining, Dandong, Yinchuan, Fuzhou, Qinhuangdao, Ganzhou, with the increase of 1.8%, 1.5%, 1.4%, 1.3%, 1%, 1%, 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.8%, 0.8%, respectively.
Shaoguan, Xi'an, Qingdao, Yueyang, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Jinhua, Mudanjiang, Urumqi and Guiyang saw a large decline in the price of second-hand housing, with a decline rate of 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.6%, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5 and 0.5%, respectively Points.
From a year-on-year perspective, preliminary estimates show that in November, the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first tier cities increased by 1.0% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in October.
Beijing's second-hand house prices fell 0.4% month on month, falling for five consecutive months. The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in second tier cities increased by 3.9% year-on-year, 0.5% lower than that in October, falling for seven consecutive months. The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in third tier cities increased by 4.1% year-on-year, 0.5% lower than that in October, the same or falling for 8 consecutive months.
In the first 11 months, the land acquisition area of real estate enterprises decreased by 14.2%, and real estate enterprises stepped up sales promotion
Investment in real estate is still strong. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to November, the national real estate development investment was 12126.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January October.
Jian'an's investment is expected to maintain a relatively fast growth rate of 6. From January to November, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8.75 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%. Since March 2019, it has maintained above 8%, which is the highest growth platform in recent five years. At the same time, the growth trend of construction and completion tends to converge. From January to November, the cumulative growth rates of newly started and completed housing areas were 8.6% and - 4.5% respectively, with the growth gap narrowed by 2.4 percentage points compared with October.
Shortening the project cycle and speeding up the construction rhythm are the better choices for development enterprises to cope with the pressure of capital tightening. The construction of industrial projects is still in the peak period, and it is estimated that the construction and installation investment may maintain a rapid growth in 2020. "Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said.
But on the other hand, land investment is weak. According to the data, from January to November, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 220 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, and the decrease rate was 2.1 percentage points lower than that from January to October; the land transaction price was 1.2 trillion yuan, decreased by 13.0%, and the decline rate was narrowed by 2.2%.
"Due to the strong Jian'an investment and weak land investment, it is estimated that the growth center of real estate investment may slow down to about 7% from the high level in 2020. "Lian Ping said.
From the perspective of sales and pending sales of commercial housing, from January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1.49 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, 0.1 percentage point faster than that from January to October; the sales volume of commercial housing was 14.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, with a flat growth rate.
In Lian Ping's view, since the second half of the year, the all-round tightening of financing channels has forced real estate enterprises to step up sales promotion with price for volume and speed up the speed of capital turnover, and the transaction trend has rebounded.
Housing price growth is expected to narrow in 2020
What is the future trend of real estate price, investment and sales?
Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the regulation policy is based on house prices. Under the influence of steady and steady market transactions and low land premium rate, it is expected that the growth rate of house prices in 2020 is expected to narrow, and it will still be positive year-on-year. The structural differentiation is similar to the above transaction differentiation.
From the perspective of sales, many industry insiders said that real estate enterprises will step up sales promotion in the face of performance setback at the end of the year, and the sales growth rate will rise slightly in the short term. However, Lian Ping pointed out that since 2016, the downward period of real estate has been as long as 43 months. Under the "five restrictions" policy, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the short-term recovery of transactions is difficult to be used as the basis for judging whether to usher in a turning point, and the sales volume may shrink again; If the regulation policy is aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing over cooling, and local reverse rectification is carried out due to urban implementation policies, then there is room for release of housing demand.
From the perspective of structure, Lian Ping believes that the fundamentals of the first tier cities are expected to be stable, and the volume and price may be relatively stable under the constraints of regulatory tasks; the second and third tier key cities' scramble for talents' will open a sequel, and the market transaction may be large, and the sales growth rate will lead, with a positive increase of about single digits; After the wave of de stocking and the decline of monetization of shed reform in the third and fourth tier cities, the shortage of local real demand and the impact of early overdraft will gradually be exposed, and the transaction may drop by 5% - 10% year-on-year. 'it is estimated that in 2020, the sales area of commercial housing may decline steadily, with a year-on-year balance or a decrease of less than 5%. "Lian Ping said.