Original title: 'Garlic you ruthlessly' make a comeback: new garlic price takes' roller coaster ', a three-year high
4hw.org in June this year, the price of new garlic went through a series of roller coaster market, rising first and then falling. And from the end of September, garlic prices have been rising all the way. So, why does the condiment that can't be lacked at the dinner table go through such ups and downs?
In June this year, the price of new garlic went through a series of roller coaster market, which rose first and then fell. And from the end of September, garlic prices have risen all the way.
So, why does the condiment that can't be lacked at the dinner table experience such ups and downs? CCTV financial reporters conducted an investigation in Beijing, Shandong and other places.
Garlic prices rise, wholesalers' shipments slow down
In Beijing's Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market, the garlic trading area on the weekend morning was a bit deserted, with only a few scattered people buying garlic.
Garlic buyer: now the best is 5 yuan 15 yuan per Jin. The cheaper is 4 yuan 20 yuan. I feel it's a little higher than the previous month.
Zhang Peng, who has been in garlic business for nine years, said that the price of garlic is now seven or eight cents higher than that at the end of September. Recently, Zhang Peng's garlic trading volume is much less than before.
Zhang Peng, a garlic dealer in Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market: a car sells for seven or eight days, eight or nine days. Now the sales are more than half slower than before.
According to the data, the average price per kilogram of common garlic in Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market on November 4 was 4.2 yuan, up 13.51% from 3.7 yuan on September 28. The main reason for the price increase in the terminal market is the rise in the price of origin.
In Jinxiang garlic market of Shandong, the main garlic producing area, many traders gather every morning to inquire about the latest garlic market. Xiao Guojing, who has been trading garlic for many years, is one of them. After simple communication with the seller here, he will go to the cold store where traders store new garlic.
Xiao Guojing introduced that since the end of September, the price of garlic in Jinxiang has continued to rise. Now, the price of new garlic in cold storage has increased by nearly one yuan per Jin compared with that in September. But now the cold storage garlic of one price a day also makes the buyer and the seller wait and see.
According to the data, the price of new garlic in Jinxiang cold storage was 3.75 yuan / jin at the end of October, which was about 35% higher than that of 2.8 yuan / jin at the end of September, nearly 200% higher than that of the same period last year, reaching a new high in recent three years.
Loss of depositors, reluctant to sell, decrease of supply and increase of garlic price
CCTV financial reporters learned in the interview that the main reason for this round of garlic price rise is that garlic traders from the origin are reluctant to sell and the supply is reduced. So why don't garlic traders give up selling garlic?
In the cold storage of Han dexuan company, there are 750 tons of new garlic newly purchased in July this year. At that time, the purchase price of these new garlic was about 3 yuan and 70 cents per Jin. Now, with the storage and other expenses, they can't be sold at the cost price.
Han dexuan, general manager of Shandong Jinxiang Tianhong Trading Co., Ltd.: now the general price of this kind of goods is about 3.7 yuan per Jin, as well as the inventory cost and loss. Now the cost price is more than 4 yuan per Jin. If it is sold now, at least one ton will be compensated for 1000 yuan. I don't want to sell it. I want to wait and see.
In Jinxiang, there are not a few garlic traders like Han dexuan, who don't sell because of high cost and loss. The main reason for the loss is the market of new garlic this year.
It is understood that due to the reduction of planting area, the market's expectation for the price of new garlic this year is on the high side. In early June, the price of new garlic reached 3.7 yuan per Jin after being weighed, and then it rose to 4.48 yuan per Jin all the way under the influence of rising sentiment.
But by the end of June, because the actual total output is higher than expected, the price of new garlic began to fall, and by September, it had dropped to 2.45 yuan per Jin. It is this roller coaster market that makes the storage companies generally in a state of loss and reluctant to sell, which also directly causes the decrease of new garlic supply in the market.
In addition to the decrease of supply, the increase of export volume is also one of the reasons for the increase of garlic price in this round. At a garlic processing enterprise in Jinxiang, a batch of new garlic to be sent to Indonesia is under intensive processing.
Wang Jinhai, general manager of Hongteng fruit and vegetable Co., Ltd., Jinxiang County, Shandong Province: Yesterday our company packed 40 containers, more than 1000 tons, and today we have more than 600 tons. Exports increased by 30% in October from September, mainly in Indonesia.
Wang Jinhai said that on October 9 and 22, the export quotas of 40000 tons and 115000 tons of garlic from Indonesia were decentralized, and the export demand of Chinese processing enterprises immediately increased. Although Indonesia's export quota will be lowered every year, and this year's total is far less than the 240000 tons from October to December last year, it directly stimulated the price rise of new garlic in October.
Increase of trade volume of aged garlic and stable price of garlic in short term
The recent rise of garlic price can be said to be a normal reflection of market supply and demand. In the investigation, CCTV financial reporters also found that, because the price of new garlic rose, Chen Suan, who stayed last year, caught up with a good opportunity, not only the trading volume rose, but also played a supporting role in stabilizing the price of garlic.
At a garlic trading company in Jinxiang, Shandong Province, two trucks are loading for Hunan and Guangdong. The batch of garlic that has completed the transaction is Chen garlic produced in 2018. At present, because the price of old garlic is about 80 cents lower than that of new garlic, the trading volume is much higher than that of previous years.
Zhang Mingshuo, manager of Wenying Agricultural Trade Co., Ltd. in Jinxiang County, Shandong Province: more than 700 tons will be sold out in three days. About 30% more volume than the same period of previous years.
In general, garlic in Jinxiang will be sold out in the same year. Last year, due to the large output and large storage, plus the optimistic price of new garlic this year, many storage companies did not sell in the same year, but began to concentrate on the goods in the near future.
Zhang Mingshuo, manager of Wenying Agricultural Trade Co., Ltd. of Jinxiang County, Shandong Province: garlic is the original product collected in 18 years. The purchase price is about 8 cents per Jin, plus the cost and storage fee. Generally, it's a little more than 1 yuan per Jin. What I'm selling now is from 2.6 to 2.8 cents per Jin, with considerable profits.
Analysts said that as of June, the stock of garlic in 2018 was still about 1 million tons, an increase of 100% over the previous year. Therefore, while bringing profits to the storage companies, Chen garlic also supported the market supply in the short term.
However, Indonesia's garlic export quota will be basically digested before December, which will not stimulate the market continuously. It is expected that the short-term garlic price will run smoothly.
Mr. Hetan, agricultural products analyst of Zhuo Chuang information: the possibility of a sharp rise or fall in short-term prices is not too great. In the long run, the stock of garlic is about 3.4 million tons, which is a relatively high volume in the past decade. Once the Spring Festival is around, if the inventory digestion speed is not very fast, it may have an impact on the market mentality, everyone's enthusiasm for selling goods may increase, and the price may still decline.
In addition, the long-term garlic price will also be affected by the planting area and output of new garlic next year. However, the general expectation of the market for the increase of planting area also makes the long-term garlic price lack of support.