Original title: fruit prices' map ': Anhui rose more than 30% year on year, Ningxia rose more than 20%
Analysts believe that the decrease in supply due to weather is the main reason for the recent rise in fruit prices. With a large number of fresh fruits coming on the market after June, the short-term price rise due to the imbalance between supply and demand will fall.
Fruits and vegetables on the shelves of a supermarket in Beijing on May 12, 2019.
Recently, the market has paid more and more attention to the rise of fruit prices, and "fruit freedom" has even become a hot search. According to the interface news reporter, from the perspective of the price of fresh fruit in the consumer price index (CPI) in April, the price of fresh fruit in 19 of the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) increased by more than 10% year-on-year. Among them, Anhui, with the highest growth rate, reached 30.9%, and Ningxia, with a growth rate of 20.4%.
Analysts believe that the decrease in supply caused by weather is the main factor leading to the recent rise in fruit prices. With a large number of fresh fruits coming on the market after June, the short-term price rise due to the imbalance between supply and demand will come down. Considering the impact of external factors on domestic demand, it is unlikely that CPI will rise by more than 3% this year.
The fruit of general inflation
The first to trigger the discussion of "fruit freedom" was the imported fruits represented by cherries and durian. But in recent years, apple, pear, banana and other common fruits have also seen a wave of significant price increases.
According to the key monitoring fruit price data released by the information center of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas in the 20th week of 2019 (may 13-17), the price of Fuji apple is 10.33 yuan per kilogram, up 60.7% over the same period last year. In addition to Fuji apple, watermelon and pineapple also rose. As of May 17, the price of watermelon was 4.86 yuan per kilogram, up 29.7% over the same period last year, and that of pineapple was 3.98 yuan per kilogram, up 12.3% in the past month.
From the national point of view, the price of different fruit varieties, the price range is also quite different.
According to the data released by Anhui investigation team of the National Bureau of statistics on Monday, in April, nine of the 11 kinds of fresh fruits surveyed rose, and the higher ones were pear (up 90% year-on-year), virgin fruit (up 61.3%), apple (up 43.6%), kiwi fruit (up 25.6%) and strawberry (up 25.4%).
The data of Fujian Province, another big fruit price rising Province, shows that apple, pear, banana, watermelon and other four kinds of fruits have increased significantly since the beginning of this year. For example, on May 5, the average price of bananas was 3.57 yuan per catty, up 5.3% over the same period of last year; the average price of watermelon was 3.28 yuan per catty, up nearly 20% over the same period of last year.
Driven by the rise in spot prices, the futures prices of jujube and apple have shown a steady upward trend since this year.
Yesterday (May 22), the domestic futures market closed, in the case of most commodity futures down, jujube futures main contract 1912 rose sharply against the trend, closed at the trading board, apple futures main contract 1910 rose nearly 2%. As of the 22nd, apple futures rose more than 27% in the year, while jujube futures have risen 14.7% since it was listed on April 30.
Weather is the culprit
In response to the rise in fresh fruit prices, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said at a press conference on May 15 that it was obviously affected by seasonal factors such as extreme weather. This kind of seasonal short-term impact is not sustainable, so fruit prices will not always be at a high level. In addition, the recent increase in rainfall in southern China has increased the transportation and storage costs of fruits to a certain extent.
But the most direct reason for the rise of fruit is from the inventory. Last spring, the temperature was low, the wind was stronger, and there was hail and frost. As a result, the output of some fruits that flowered in spring and fruited in autumn decreased, especially apples and pears. In this case, the inventory of fruit was low, the supply and demand were unbalanced, and the price would rise. 'she said analytically.
Analysts pointed out that taking apple as an example, China's main apple producing areas are in Shaanxi, Shandong and Shanxi. Last spring, however, the weather conditions in these areas were not good, the low temperature lasted for a long time, and at the same time, there was a strong wind during the apple flowering period, resulting in a large number of flowers falling without pollination. The bad weather made the apple production in Shaanxi, Shandong and Gansu decreased significantly last autumn.