The baby boom is gone and the bachelor boom is coming. In the next five years, China's working age population will decrease by more than 3 million per year on average. In addition to easing between 2024 and 2026, the problem of children's birth has been emphasized in recent years. What's the matter with the bachelor boom? It is estimated that a large number of single dogs will appear in the future.
The baby boom is gone and the bachelor boom is coming. In the next five years, China's working age population will be reduced by more than 3 million per year on average, which will further worsen, except for the Moderation between 2024 and 2026 (caused by the sharp decrease in the number of people born during the natural disasters in 1959-1961). Especially in the ten years from 2028 to 2039, China will reduce the working age population by more than 10 million every year.
In the long run, population is a key factor affecting economic growth and structural change. In recent years, under the background of the continuous decline of economic growth, there are more and more discussions on the population issue. Everyone is saying that China's population situation is very severe, but there are few detailed calculations and forecasts on how severe it is. In this topic, we use the classic Leslie age sex prediction model to predict the population situation in the next 30 years.
Leslie model mainly makes two predictions: one is to use the mortality rate of all age groups to calculate the population structure of the next year; the other is to use the female fertility rate to calculate the number of male and female babies born each year. In the calculation, we take into account the differences in fertility willingness of women of different ages and education levels, as well as the changes in mortality over time. The structural data used in the calculation is mainly from the 1% sample survey data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2015.
Trend 1: after the fastest 10 years, China's total population will be negative growth
According to the optimistic prediction of decreasing mortality rate (wide caliber), the total population of mainland China will reach a historical high of 1.451 billion in 2035, and there will be a trend of negative growth. However, according to the narrow caliber prediction that the mortality rate remains unchanged, the time to reach the historical peak will be 2027, and the population may reach 1.431 billion. Therefore, in the next ten years, China's total population will show a trend of negative growth.
With the slowdown or even negative growth of China's total population, India will gradually surpass China and become the world's largest population country. According to the prediction of the United Nations, India is expected to surpass China in 2024 in five years. The proportion of China's population in the world will gradually decline, from nearly 20% to less than 10% at the end of this century. Of course, this forecast is still far away, and there will be many policy adjustments in the next few decades. The real results may deviate from the forecast, but the trend of the decline of China's population proportion has begun.
Trend 2: the number of young and middle-aged people is decreasing rapidly, reaching more than 10 million a year at the peak
China's working age population aged 15-64 reached the highest point of 1.006 billion in 2013, and it has been negative growth for five consecutive years, with an average annual decrease of nearly 2 million. According to our prediction, the decrease of working age population in China will be more serious.
In the next five years, China's working age population will decrease by more than 3 million per year on average, which will further worsen, except for the Moderation between 2024 and 2026 (caused by the sharp decrease in the number of people born during natural disasters in 1959-1961). Especially in the ten years from 2028 to 2039, China will reduce the working age population by more than 10 million every year. The continuous negative growth of working age population will be a great drag on China's economic growth.
Trend 3: the impact of second child has passed, and the number of new born babies will soon exceed 13 million
One of the main reasons for the decrease of the working age population is the sharp decrease of the number of new born people in China every year since the 1990s.
After the founding of new China, China has experienced two generations of baby boomers. The first generation appeared in the 1960s-1970s, especially in 1962-1975, with an average annual birth of more than 27 million. The second generation of baby boomers appeared in the 1980s-1990s, when the first generation of baby boomers began to get married and have children, such as 1982-1997, with an average annual birth of more than 22 million.
However, due to the implementation of population management policies and the rise of various support costs, the number of new births in China has declined sharply since the 1990s, and there is no new baby boom. That is to say, the new baby peak, which should be produced by the second generation of baby boomers, has not arrived as scheduled.
The direct result of this is that in recent years, the number of working age population over 15 years old is less and less, while the number of non working age population over 65 years old is more and more, and the number of working age population begins to decrease.
The prediction results of our model show that the number of new-born population in China will further decrease in the future, and it is estimated that it will drop to about 14 million this year, with a high probability of falling below 13 million within five years, and will soon return to the low of 11 million.
According to our calculation, the number of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 in China may decrease by more than 7 million in 2018 (this result is consistent with the results published by the Bureau of Statistics). It is estimated that the number of women of childbearing age will also decrease by about 6 million every year from 2019 to 2021, especially the number of women aged 20-35 in the period of vigorous childbearing. In addition, other factors, such as the improvement of women's education level and the decline of their desire to have children, are also a drag on the new-born population.
The two-child policy, which was fully liberalized in October 2015, may have passed the driving period for fertility. Because our model does not consider the impact of sudden policy relaxation on the fertility rate, the estimated number of new births in 2016-2018 is 16.17 million, 15.76 million and 15.29 million respectively, while the actual number of births in these three years is 17.86 million, 17.23 million and 15.23 million.
In other words, the part of the actual value higher than the predicted value in 2016 and 2017 can be seen as the result of the promotion of the relaxation of the family planning policy on the new-born population, but there is no difference between the two in 2018, indicating that the impact of the two-child policy liberalization has disappeared. In order to increase the number of new born population, we must introduce more policies to encourage fertility as soon as possible.
Trend 4: two years later, it will enter into deep aging, and it will be close to Japan in 2050
Another main reason for the decrease of the number of working age population is the aggravation of aging. In the next 30 years, the situation of population aging in China will be more severe, and will soon step into a deep aging society.
According to the international classification standard, when the proportion of the population aged 65 or above in a country or region exceeds 7%, it means that it will enter an aging society; when it reaches 14%, it means that it will enter a deep aging society; when it exceeds 21%, it means that it will enter a super aging society. According to our wide and narrow caliber models, the proportion of the elderly population in China will exceed 14% in 2021, that is, it will enter the deep aging society. In 2031, it will exceed 21%, and it will enter the super aging society.
The increase of the elderly population not only means the reduction of the number of labor force and the decline of the total economic demand, but also means the aggravation of the burden of providing for the aged. According to our calculation, the dependency ratio of the elderly population (the ratio of the elderly over 65 to the working age population aged 15-64) will continue to rise from 0.17 last year to 0.3 in 2030, 0.5 in 2004 and close to 0.6 in 2050. The total dependency ratio of China's population will rise from 0.41 at present to 0.51 in 2030, 0.68 in 2040 and close to 0.8 in 2050.
You may not feel much about these figures, but this is a very serious problem. We might as well explain it again. China's pension system is still dominated by pay as you go system, that is to say, the money for the living old people is mainly from the social security or tax paid by the living young people. Generally speaking, in addition to our own expenses, every young person now has to bear the expenses of 0.41 old people or children on average; but by 2030, every young person will bear the expenses of 0.5 old people or children on average, and by 2050, they will bear 0.8 old people or children, doubling the burden.
From the perspective of international comparison, the most representative aging country is Japan. At present, the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in Japan is 27%, which belongs to the super aging society. According to China's current speed, we may reach Japan's current level in 2037, and by 2050, China may be close to Japan's aging level at that time.
Trend 5: the marriage rate continues to decline, and the number of 'singles' increases
Another long-term challenge for China's population is gender imbalance. Under normal circumstances, the ratio of male to female of new born population is between 1.02 and 1.07. However, since the early 1980s, China's sex ratio at birth has been rising, and it has remained at a high level of around 1.2 for more than 10 years after 1996. It was not until the full liberalization of the 'two child' policy that the sex ratio of new born population rapidly fell back to a reasonable range.
The post-80s, post-90s and post-00s have entered the age of marriage and childbearing. The number of men of marriageable age is far more than that of women, which is bound to affect the marriage rate in China. According to the sample survey data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2015, there were 40 million more unmarried men over 15 years old than unmarried women in 2015, of which the rural areas accounted for more than 30 million, and the "surplus men in rural areas" is really an objective problem. If we take into account the marriage market matching, celibacy and other factors, the actual number of singles may be far more than 40 million.
As a matter of fact, the generation with the most serious imbalance of sex ratio at birth from 1996 to 2013 has not entered the marriage market in large quantities. If this generation enters the marriage market, the marriage rate will further decline and the number of 'single children' will continue to increase in the future.
According to relevant academic research, in the past ten years, the imbalance of gender ratio has played a certain role in promoting the development of China's real estate market, because owning housing in the city can improve men's competitiveness in the marriage market. But looking ahead, if the marriage rate further declines, the number of new born people further decreases, and the real estate market price remains high, the population factor will become a drag on the real estate market, especially the real estate in small and medium-sized cities.
Challenges and opportunities coexist, and the countermeasures are urgent
The change of long-term population trend will continue to exert pressure on China's economic growth, which may bring some economic and social problems, which need us to make policy preparations. For example, we should liberalize all kinds of birth control policies, introduce policies to encourage childbearing as soon as possible, extend the retirement age, and carry out relevant reforms in education, medical care, pension and other fields to increase supply.
But behind the challenges, there are also structural opportunities. For example, after the aging of the population, although the demand for traditional durable goods industry will decrease and the overall economic growth will slow down, the demand for pension, medical and other related industries will increase. Since 1990, Japan has entered the accelerated aging stage. The proportion of health care expenditure in Japanese residents' consumption has increased rapidly from 1.7% to 2.7%, and the proportion of social security expenditure of Japanese government has also increased from 20% to 33%.
In the same way, for example, the emergence of the "Bachelor wave" will also stimulate the demand for the "single economy". Pet, Internet red and other industries may benefit from it. In addition, some industries are also designing and developing products for single groups.
Finally, it should be noted that this model does not consider the impact of policy changes on fertility rate. If the policy is adjusted, the results of measurement and prediction may be unstable