According to Xinhua news agency, on January 23, the economic reference published a report entitled "oil price or 'two consecutive rises' before the Spring Festival". According to the article, "economic reference" reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that a new round of domestic oil price adjustment window will be opened on January 28. Judging from the current trend of crude oil shocks, this Spring Festival oil price has risen two times in a row! Is the fuel tank full before Spring Festival?
Since the pricing cycle, the trend of crude oil has been relatively volatile, among which the positive progress of OPEC's production reduction and the sharp decline in the number of American oil wells have greatly boosted the confidence of crude oil bulls. At the same time, the release of positive signals from China US trade negotiations has also effectively improved the risk sentiment of the market. However, prior to this, OPEC lowered its global crude oil demand expectations, and the U.S. crude oil production continued to refresh High average pressure on oil prices.
On Monday, January 21, which coincided with Martin Luther King's day, there was no closing price of USO on the New York Stock Exchange. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $0.04, or 0.06%, at $62.74 a barrel in March. Crude oil futures contract of Shanghai Energy Trading Center in March rose 1.8 yuan to 437.7 yuan / barrel, or 0.41%.
As the average price of crude oil as a whole has increased compared with the previous period, the change rate of this round continues to deepen the operation trend. According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the fifth working day on January 21, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 58.33 USD / barrel, with a change rate of 6.89%, corresponding to an increase of 220 yuan / ton of gasoline and diesel prices. Wang Shan, an analyst with the agency, said that the price adjustment cycle has been more than half, and the retail price may be realized at a rate of 'two consecutive rises'.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Zheng Mingya also said that a new round of oil product price adjustment window will open on January 28, when the probability of "two consecutive rises" is large, with a range of 265 yuan / ton.
Compared with the retail market, the recent domestic wholesale market is not optimistic. Although the news is frequently positive, but the main gasoline and diesel prices do not rise but fall. According to the national gasoline and diesel index, as of January 21, the national 92 × gasoline index was 7105, down 92% from January 14; 0 × diesel index was 6119, down 70% from January 14.
Wang Shan believes that in the later stage, due to the low temperature and the approaching of Spring Festival, the downstream industrial and mining infrastructure, logistics and transportation and other diesel terminal oil users have been shut down, and the diesel demand has dropped to the freezing point. In terms of gasoline, the Spring Festival will come. At that time, the travel radius of private cars will be widened, and gasoline demand will be relatively stable. The last replenishment cycle before the festival has been started, and some operators still have some replenishment operations. Due to the demand differentiation of gasoline and diesel, the situation of strong steam and weak diesel may become more and more obvious.