In the winter of another year, many netizens begin to guess that 2018 will be a cold winter? Is it cold in winter 2018? Now let's predict whether it will be warm or cold this year. Let's have a look.
Is this winter cold or warm? What does cold winter mean?
The temperature standard for dividing warm winter and cold winter is 0.5 ℃: when the average temperature of this year's winter (December February of the next year) is 0.5 ℃ higher than that of previous years, then 2018 winter is warm winter; on the contrary, if the average temperature is 0.5 ℃ lower than that of previous years, it is cold winter.
China has not had a cold winter for a long time. According to the historical records, the last abnormal cold occurred in 2008. It has been 10 years since then, there has been no real cold winter.
Every year, some people guess that it was a cold winter, but in fact, it's just some conjectures without scientific basis. The beginning of a cold winter is not based on the data for a while, but on the prediction of some climate phenomena that happened in that year, and this is only a prediction for reference only. After all, the weather changes every moment, who knows what will happen next second 。
In these two days, it is predicted that 2018 will be a very cold winter, mainly because of the El Nino phenomenon this year, which is the phenomenon that the sea water in the east of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than that in the west, usually leading to extreme weather such as drought and waterlogging. This phenomenon may be followed by La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino. Once it appears, the world may have extremely cold weather. Therefore, it is predicted that this year will be a cold winter by El Nino phenomenon.
Although there is a certain basis for this kind of speculation, it is not entirely correct, because generally, El Nino phenomenon needs to last for a period of time, usually after the end of the phenomenon, La Nina begins. According to professionals, this year's El Nino is in October, which will last for several months. The longest time in history is more than a year, so it will take a few months to finish this time, and after it, China's winter will be over.
In addition, the appearance of La Nina should be at least the second year after the appearance of El Nino, so if we really want to say cold winter, it will have to wait at least one year, and it is not certain.
For the statement that "this year is cold winter", the professional departments gave the correct answer in these two days. According to experts, because the winter wind in East Asia was relatively weak when the El Nino event happened this year, the temperature in China was on the high side as a whole, that is, there was no cold winter!