At 24:00 on April 26, the price adjustment window of domestic refined oil will be opened again. The reporter learned that up to now, the international oil price remains high, and this round of oil price rise has become a foregone conclusion. For those who are going to travel on May 1st, it is estimated that the cost will increase.
Domestic oil prices will see "three consecutive rises", and this rise is likely to be the biggest one this year. During the "May 1st" period, the travel fuel cost of private car owners and logistics enterprises will increase. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 270 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.21 yuan per liter for 92 × gasoline and 0.23 yuan per liter for 0 × diesel.
Li Yan, an analyst with Longzhong petrochemical, said that during the current price adjustment cycle, the international oil price will play the role of the above actors, and the Syrian issue will aggravate tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia hinted that it might extend the production reduction agreement, and the geopolitical situation became the main positive support for the first half of the period. Subsequently, the U.S. official oil inventory exceeded expectations, and OPEC frequently released positive signals about production reduction, which pushed the wave International oil prices Brush New Year's highs.
According to statistics of Longzhong Petrochemical network, as of April 20, the comprehensive change rate of crude oil is 5.73%, and the corresponding increase is expected to be 190 yuan / ton. According to the calculation of the international oil price level in the current cycle, when the price adjustment window of refined oil is opened, the corresponding increase will exceed 200 yuan / ton. At present, it has reached the seventh working day of the price adjustment cycle, and the increase has become a foregone conclusion. The crude oil change rate estimated by Jinlian Chuangye is 5.29%, and the expected increase is 210 yuan / ton. The crude oil change rate calculated by Zhuo Chuang information is 5.1%, corresponding to an increase of 205 yuan / ton.
Since 2018, there have been seven price adjustments for domestic refined oil products. Among them, the first two oil price adjustments were upward, the third and the fourth were downward; the oil price adjustment was stranded on March 14; the two adjustments on March 28 and April 12 were upward. If this price adjustment comes true, it will be the first "three consecutive rises" since 2018. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment Bureau in 2018 will become "five rises, two falls and one grounding". Up to now, gasoline price has been increased by 110 yuan / ton and diesel price by 105 yuan / ton.
How will the long-term trend of oil prices change this year? According to Li Yan, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on May 11, 2018. At present, the favorable factors of the international crude oil market occupy the upper hand, but after Brent breaks through $70, the pressure also exists. It is expected that the next round of product oil prices will be higher or stranded.