A lot of people's lifelong efforts are focused on the city's house prices. Will the house prices rise this year, and how big is the range of rise? As for the problem of house price, both working people and walking aunts are very concerned, but the prediction of house price is difficult. However, according to the recent statistics of the Academy of Social Sciences, house price is expected to increase by 7.6% in 2019! So what are the reasons for the rise in house prices?
The current housing price is still too high for most of the working class. With their own wage savings and their parents' subsidies, they may be able to make a down payment in the first tier big cities, and then they will work for the house for decades to come. This is also the situation that many working class cry that they can't afford to buy a house. Now the bank's loan interest rate is rising, which increases a lot of burden for people who buy a house to repay the mortgage, and the cost of buying a house goes up, which also reflects the rise of house prices.
For the current situation of the real estate market, the state's regulatory policies are constantly strengthened. For some first tier cities, they have implemented very strict purchase and loan restriction policies. These policies have made the housing prices of these cities fall to a certain extent. But for some people who want to buy a house, it may add a new difficulty. The house prices in some cities have fallen in a short time, but they have picked up after a period of time. Even some cities have ushered in a new round of rise in house prices. People who buy a house are really not sure when to make a move.
For many people who want to buy a house, today's house prices are still very high. After various policies, the house prices in some first tier cities have come down. However, the house prices in first tier cities are much higher than those in third tier and fourth tier cities, let alone rising again. Now the house prices of many third - and fourth tier cities are also rising by a small margin. What are the reasons for the rising house prices? Xiaobian thinks that there are the following points.
First, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market
As we all know, China has a large population. With the development of economic construction, the current "rural encircling the city" is in full swing. It is not so much through the development of rural construction as with the pace of real estate developers, batch after batch of rural population "passively" into the city.
Accordingly, the urban population will increase passively, and the demand for houses will certainly rise. This is the rigid market demand. When the demand exceeds the supply, the price of the house will rise naturally. This is the role of market regulation. For the rise of house prices caused by this, the role of government policy regulation is very small.
With the increase of population, the prices of new and second-hand houses are rising in cities. And in the rental market, the price of rent has also increased. This is also the reason why some working-class people complain that the rent has gone up again. Because there is demand, it is inevitable that the price is high.
Second, there are few land resources and it is difficult to get land
At present, urban land is less and less. According to the different uses and the nature of development, besides residential land, there are also commercial land, industrial land, public management and public service facilities. There is more market demand and less land. Today's developers want to get more and more difficult land, the government for land approval procedures are more and more strict, the cost of getting land is high.
For some cities, land is their financial revenue. Many developers have paid a very high cost to get the land. If they want to get back the cost and make profits from the buyers, they will definitely choose to raise the house price. The cost determines that the house price will rise after the decline.
Third, inflation and high prices are also the reasons for rising house prices
In the process of developing a house, the rising prices of building materials, workers' wages and other labor costs all lead to the increase of house costs. With the development of time, the increase of various costs will inevitably lead to the rise of house prices. In addition, some taxes and fees will also have some impact on house prices. Here is a book to recommend, mainly about the impact of real estate transaction tax and personal retention tax on house prices.
Fourth, the value of the house appreciation and the existence of speculators
Although it is always said not to speculate in real estate now, it will not make money and the house will be folded in the hand, there are still many speculators. What is the reason? Of course, the house itself is a commodity with value preservation and appreciation, which is true in the current real estate market. At present, the occupancy rate of new buildings in many cities is very low and the vacancy rate is very high, but those houses have been sold out, including the unfinished new buildings.
And those who have extra housing in their hands seldom worry about the devaluation of their houses. Because now there is no substantive policy to regulate, such as imposing vacancy tax and real estate tax on these houses, or there are enough low rent houses or public rental houses in the market, otherwise their actual interests will not be threatened. The previous purchase restriction policy does not limit the purchase of second-hand houses. Many buyers will choose to buy second-hand houses at high prices, which is also the reason why the house prices are getting higher and higher.