Will house prices fall in 2019
4hw.com.cn: in the first half of this year, domestic house prices generally showed a trend of stop rising and slight decline. The state should vigorously promote the whole real estate market, so that the residential property of houses can return as soon as possible, and house prices are expected to decline in the second half of this year. Many friends are concerned about the housing price situation in 2019? Will house prices rise or fall in 2019? Let's get to know.
Will house prices rise or fall in 2019
On February 16, 2018, Xinhua News Agency published an article entitled "housing, housing and non speculation, let house prices return to rationality". The article said that house price control is not the goal of this regulation, and the real estate market will continue to be tightly regulated in 2018. Therefore, in 2018, the house prices in the first and second tier cities will fall steadily, but the house prices in the third and fourth tier cities will be relatively stable, and the house prices in the fifth tier cities should rise by a large margin.
The high housing prices in the first and second tier cities have exceeded most of their purchasing power. Under the national regulatory policy, we will certainly increase the regulatory efforts in 2018, improve the real estate market, establish a long-term regulatory mechanism, and propose not to have the idea of "take a breath and rest". We can see the great regulatory power this time.
Housing prices in most of the third and fourth tier cities are basically stable. In 2015, the house prices in the third and fourth tier cities were relatively low. Under the background of destocking, there had been a substantial increase in 2016 and 2017. Therefore, the house prices in the third and fourth tier cities are unlikely to rise significantly in the future, and should be relatively stable.
The fifth tier cities are mostly western cities or county towns, with relatively low house prices, which meet the requirements of rigid demand. With the increase of home buyers and the decrease of inventory, the fifth tier cities will be bullish in the future.
What about the housing prices in 2019?
There should be a rise in 2019. But growth may slow. Because of the tightening of regulation and control, the task of destocking in various regions has been gradually completed, and a large number of rental houses have been added to the market, many people have different choices. According to their own actual situation, choose the appropriate living strategy.
Similarly, the land sold in 2017 can be listed after a one-year construction cycle in 2019. According to the processing time, there should be a lot of new commercial housing in 2019. Under the competition, the rising speed of price will slow down. But it will never come down, because the land transfer fees have risen. The cost has increased, it is impossible for developers to spit out profits. Therefore, the rise of house prices is still the mainstream trend in 2019.
So, will house prices fall in 2020?
To tell the truth, it is difficult for China's house prices to fall in 2020!
Why do you say that? There are two reasons
Now the economic development has begun to speed up, unlike before, the economic development is slow, the economic development is fast, some regular things will naturally be broken! This is the inevitable result of historical development! It's equivalent to eliminating backward production capacity. Now you can pay with a mobile phone without carrying your wallet. You can also wash your face in some places! This is the innovation after economic development! And the house price is the same. Now there are many potential things and values behind the house price. For example, our quality requirements are not the same. In the past, it may not leak. Now it has become that the internal and external corners are not straight, the area is one centimeter less, the greening of the community is poor, and the surrounding noise is loud. This is the real change! Therefore, it is possible that house prices will not continue to follow the three-year cycle! And last year, house prices did not fall, has been rising!