US media analysis said the consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak are expected to have a significant negative impact on the US economic outlook. According to the forecast, the loss of jobs this year will be as many as 5 million, and the decline of economic output will be as much as $1.5 trillion.
According to the report on March 21 on the website of the Wall Street Journal, a survey of 34 economists by the newspaper shows that the recession is almost certain now. The survey predicts that the recession will last for at least a few months, which is in some ways equivalent to or even more severe than the recession triggered by the real estate and subprime mortgage collapse from 2007 to 2009.
Bruce & middot, head of economic research at JPMorgan Chase; Kasman said: 'the impact is very big. You will see the consequences of actions taken in economic activity in the next two months. These trade-offs are not very clear in the minds of decision makers. "
The report pointed out that the economic forecast that remained optimistic two weeks ago suddenly turned pessimistic. Because one thing becomes clear: the pandemic that spread from Asia to Europe will now have a far greater impact on American life than originally expected.
In the view of many economists, the extent of the recession is still uncertain because there are uncertainties in the following aspects: the trajectory of the pandemic is unknown, the financial markets are extremely volatile, the restrictions on daily economic activities do not know how long they will last, the government's response is adjusting every day and is likely to continue to change in the coming weeks and months.
It is reported that Kasman's current prediction is representative. He expects us GDP to fall by 1.8% this year. Before the outbreak, he predicted that output would increase by 1.5%. This means a $700 billion reduction in output. He said that in addition to these losses, 'the increase of public sector debt and the damage to human capital and possibly material capital can not be ignored'.
Kasman believes that the United States will lose 7 million to 8 million jobs this spring. However, if the US economy rebounds in the second half of the year as he expected, some jobs may recover.
Sun Shengyuan, a business economist at the University of Luo, La. And Monte Carlo, predicted that, compared to his prediction before the outbreak of the virus, COVID-19 will cut its economic output by 592 billion US dollars in 2020 and reduce its employment by nearly 5 million 200 thousand.
Goldman Sachs expects us economic output to fall by 3.1% this year and the unemployment rate to soar to 9% from the current 3.5%. The unemployment rate last peaked at 10% in October 2009, after the collapse of the real estate and financial markets.
Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that, as an indicator of layoffs, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased by about 2 million this week alone.
David middot of the Anderson School of management at the University of California, Los Angeles; Shulman said: 'a public health emergency is evolving into an economic emergency. The basic outline of the economy will depend more on biology than economics. "
The report points out that as people's shopping patterns change, some industries may have to recruit more workers. For example, Amazon, which is increasing online shopping and distribution, plans to hire 100000 more employees in the United States. Wal Mart said it would give a total of $550 million in cash incentives to its hourly workers and employ 150000 temporary employees.
Some people believe that the government's unprecedented rescue efforts can still avoid some of the worst situations. In the "optimistic" forecast with a median value, economists still believe that the economy will shrink extremely sharply in the second quarter, but it will recover in the third quarter of 2020, with an increase of 1.7% and 3.1% in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, the employment growth in the third quarter and the fourth quarter may recover to 15000 and 175000 respectively. They said the unemployment rate could still be controlled at 4.5%. For most economists, their optimistic assumption is not a 'V-shaped recovery', that is, an extremely rapid rebound after a sharp decline, but a very short economic contraction.
Joel & middot, chief American economist of IHS Markit; Praken released his latest forecast on the 20th, predicting that GDP growth will decrease by $1.5 trillion. The forecast is based on a negative growth of 13% in the second quarter and a rebound in growth until the fourth quarter. But he predicts a growth rate of 3.8% in 2021.
Bernard & middot of American economic outlook group; Baumol said: 'the situation looks very bad at the moment. If we can get out of this health crisis after a brief recession, maybe we should be thankful. "
"We cannot rule out the possibility of a longer and more destructive recession," Baumer said. It is clear that we are in a race against time. "
Source: reference message