In the early morning of January 3 local time, many people were killed in rocket shelling near Baghdad International Airport, including Sulaimani, a senior general of the Iranian military.
Sulaimani has a very special status in Iran and enjoys a high reputation. It is the key to Iran's strategy and influence in the Middle East. Earlier, the reporter interviewed Sulaimani's comrades in arms and former senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Kosari said that "Sulaimani is the most trusted senior commander of Iran's supreme leader Khamenei. He is entrusted with important tasks whenever a crisis occurs.". Therefore, it has been commented that Sulaimani's death 'shook Iran and the Middle East'.
The military action against Sulaimani has been regarded by many critics as one of the boldest military actions against Iran by the United States since the Islamic revolution in Iran, which is tantamount to declaring war on Iran. Iranian state television described the incident as the "biggest miscalculation" by the United States since the Second World War. At present, the focus is how Iran will retaliate, and will Iran take retaliation at the same level? Will there be a large-scale conflict between the United States and Iraq?
The consequences of US military action are unpredictable, and the door of Iran US negotiations may be completely closed
On January 3, Iran's supreme leader Khamenei announced that Iran would publicly mourn for three days and warned: "severe retaliation is waiting for the criminals who assassinated general Sulaimani." Iranian state television described the incident as the "biggest miscalculation" by the United States since the Second World War. Sulaimani enjoys a high reputation in Iran. He is also the most trusted senior general of Iran's supreme leader Khamenei. He was once regarded as a candidate for political leaders.
Sulaimani's assassination also caused a shock in the United States. David Petraeus, a senior U.S. general who has served in the Middle East for many years, told the U.S. media that "the shock and extensive impact brought by this action cannot be exaggerated." Petraeus was the top commander of the multinational force in Iraq and later served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
At present, the focus is how Iran will retaliate, and will Iran take retaliation at the same level? Will there be a large-scale conflict between the United States and Iraq? It is almost certain that Iran will respond, but there may be different versions of Iran's retaliation. Iran has repeatedly warned that the military bases of the U.S. military and its allies are within the range of Iranian missiles. However, at the same time, some analysts believe that Iran's top leaders still do not want to have direct conflict with the United States strategically, and Iran may take limited retaliatory measures to avoid expanding it. US media quoted an anonymous Pentagon official as saying that trump and his military advisers have made comprehensive preparations for possible retaliation against Iran after a military attack. But many analysts believe that the situation is at risk of getting out of control.
At the same time, the previously precarious Iranian nuclear agreement is also in danger of collapse throughout the year. Iran finally reached an agreement with relevant parties in 2015 and chose to abandon most of its nuclear programs in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, after trump took office, he announced that he unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and increased sanctions against Iran. Now the Iran nuclear agreement has existed in name only. With the continuous pressure of the United States, the momentum of hardliners in Iran has increased again, and the attack on Sulaimani, which enjoys a high reputation in Iran, is likely to mean that the door to negotiations between Iran and the United States is completely closed.
Original title: reporter's observation: Trump's gamble triggered a global shock. The consequences are unpredictable. Source: upstream News - Chongqing Morning Post