A few days ago, the German global population foundation released statistics showing that the global population will reach 7.75 billion by the end of this year and 8 billion by 2023. At the same time, the United Nations Population Forecast report estimates that half of mankind will live in India and Africa in 2050, and India's population may surpass China in 2027. The population problem has long been a sensitive nerve in China, especially when the economy is in the new normal. Looking at the history of changes in the world's population pattern will help us rationally look at the changes of today's population pattern.
The distribution of the world's population has never been uniform from ancient times to modern times. It is related to almost all factors, such as climate, geography, race, mode of production, religion, war, diet and so on. For example, the ancient nomadic peoples had no fixed residence and scattered population. Even if the race was the same, their total population was far behind the neighboring agricultural peoples, Another example is that the number of people living in temperate zone is much higher than that in cold zone and tropical zone. Soviet demographer Б.И. Ullanis once inferred that the world population before written records was about 3.2 million; After written records, ullanis estimated that the world population increased to 30 million in 5000 BC, 230 million in the first year of A.D., 305 million in 1000, 550 million in 1650, 1656 million in 1900 and 2.501 billion in 1950. The United Nations Population organization announced that the world population reached 5.026 billion in mid-1987.
For thousands of years, the world population has shown significant characteristics of high birth, high death and low growth. The annual average birth rate and mortality rate are as high as 30 ~ 50 & permil;, The population growth rate is very low, the average life expectancy of the population is very short, and the quality of the population is poor. Until 30 years ago, Chinese people generally believed that life was complete after 60 years of age.
In the 19th century, the first major demographic change occurred in Europe and the United States, the dominant position of high mortality was gradually broken, and the new characteristics of high birth, low death and high growth began to appear. The main reason is that the capitalist mode of production has greatly promoted the progress of all aspects of society, thus creating conditions for population growth. In the same period, China was in the middle of the Qing Dynasty, with the rapid population growth brought about by the prosperous era of Kang and Qian dynasties. The base of about 300 million people laid the cornerstone of 400 million people when new China was founded. However, the population growth of the Qing Dynasty was based on the reduction of war and the increase of cultivated land, which belonged to quantitative expansion rather than the change of production mode.
At the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, the second major demographic change broke out in Europe and the United States, and the fertility rate changed from a long-term high level to a low level. This is mainly because economic development increasingly depends mainly on the scientific and cultural quality of the population and the popularization of contraceptive knowledge, technology and drugs. Therefore, the type of population reproduction in Europe and America has changed for the last time, showing the new characteristics of low birth, low death and low growth.
In the second half of the 20th century, the first population change also broke out in developing countries and regions, ending the long "high-low" population type and being replaced by "high-low" population type. In 1987, the birth rate in developing countries and regions was 32 & permil;, The mortality rate was 11 & permil;, The natural population growth rate is 21 & permil;. Because the population of developing countries and regions accounted for the majority, the world population type in 1987 also showed the characteristics of "high and low".
This year, the United Nations released the world population outlook report. The report mentioned that by the end of this century, the world population will reach 11 billion, and an additional 2 billion people will be added in the next 30 years. The global population is expected to increase by another 2 billion in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion in 2019 to 9.7 billion in 2050; By the end of this century, the global population will continue to grow to about 11 billion. In the next 30 years, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States will contribute 50% of population growth. From 2019 to 2050, the population of sub Saharan Africa is expected to double, while the population growth rates in other regions are significantly different during this period. 46 per cent in North Africa and West Asia, 25 per cent in central and South Asia, 18 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 3 per cent in East and South East Asia and only 2 per cent in Europe and North America.
Around 2027, India's population will surpass that of China and become the most populous country in the world. " The population of India and China will probably exceed 1.4 billion, but India's population continues to increase and China's population is slowly decreasing. " Since 2010, the population of 27 countries or regions in the world has decreased by at least 1%. This is mainly due to the long-term low fertility rate, and in some countries or regions, it is due to higher outward migration. One of the cornerstones of modern market economy is the continuous growth of population. Under the background of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5g, the maximum value of demographic dividend is no longer to provide sufficient labor force, but to form a huge market scale. Through the analysis of the above data, for China, there is likely to be a great change in economic development in the period after 2027. For example, real estate, education and medical treatment are closely related to the changes in population and structure. It is urgent to predict and make adjustments in advance. In addition, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States, among other countries with high population growth, are significantly more likely to become new depressions of wealth in the future. Unlike other countries, the United States, whose population growth in the next 30 years is mainly driven by World immigrants, while India The population growth of Congo and other countries mainly comes from internal natural reproduction. Careful analysis of the world population trend has a certain reference value for enterprises and individuals' long-term planning.