Original title: ranking list of real estate development and investment in 31 provinces in the first November: the growth rate of 17 provinces exceeded that of the whole country
Zhongxin Jingwei client, December 19 (Xu Shiming) recently, the website of the National Bureau of statistics released the real estate development and investment data of provinces from January to November 31, 2019. The growth rate of 17 provinces such as Tianjin, Guangdong and Liaoning was higher than the national average, and the growth rate of Hainan, Ningxia and Hebei was negative.
The growth rate of 17 places exceeded that of the whole country
From January to November 2019, the national real estate development investment was 12126.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to October. Among them, the residential investment was 8923.2 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points.
From the cumulative value of real estate development investment from January to November, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang ranked among the top three with 1.4 trillion yuan, 1.1 trillion yuan and 995.8 billion yuan respectively.
From the growth rate of real estate development investment from January to November, 17 provinces such as Tianjin, Guangdong and Liaoning maintained double-digit growth, and the growth rate was higher than the national average; Negative growth in Hainan, Ningxia and Hebei was - 25.1%, - 11.6% and - 1.7% respectively.
It is worth noting that Hainan's investment in real estate development totaled 171.504 billion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%. From January to November 2019, Hainan's investment in real estate development totaled 114.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%.
On October 23, Wang Yuan, deputy director of Hainan Provincial Bureau of statistics, explained the economic operation of Hainan Province in the first three quarters. He pointed out that the proportion of real estate development investment in fixed asset investment was decreasing, and the economy's dependence on the real estate industry was further weakened. The investment structure is more optimized, and the investment is further inclined to short board fields such as power, commerce, education, scientific research and key industries.
Land acquisition area fell for 10 consecutive months
From January to November, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 217 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, 2.1 percentage points lower than that from January to October; The land transaction price was nearly 1.2 trillion yuan, down 13.0%, and the decline narrowed by 2.2 percentage points.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the land purchase area has been declining for 10 consecutive months, but the decline is narrowing.
"Judging from the recent market data, there are still changes in the land market, especially local governments will actively supply land in the fourth quarter, which will have an impact on the transactions in the land market. In terms of the driving force of the decline, it is mainly the relatively large driving force of the decline in the third and fourth tier cities, and the land transaction in the first and second tier cities is still growing. " Yan Yuejin said.
The list of land acquisition amount of national real estate enterprises from January to November released by China Index Research Institute shows that Vanke ranks first with 157 billion yuan, followed by country garden with 123.8 billion yuan. Overall, the land acquisition amount of the top 20 real estate enterprises is nearly 1.3 trillion yuan.
Xia Dan, a senior researcher at the financial research center of the Bank of communications, said that as the cash flow pressure has not been relieved, the land acquisition of development enterprises is generally cautious, and the land acquisition area and transaction price have both decreased. In addition, the investment in construction and installation, which accounts for about 60% of the real estate investment, is still strong. It is expected that the growth center of real estate investment may slow down from a high level to about 7% in 2020.
At the end of the year, the sales growth of real estate enterprises may pick up slightly
From January to November 2019, the sales area of commercial housing was 1489.05 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, 0.1 percentage points faster than that from January to October. The sales volume of commercial housing was 1390.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was flat.
"In the case of negative year-on-year growth for 8 months, the sales area of commercial housing has increased positively twice in a row, which continues to confirm the characteristics of toughness and tenacity at the sales end. Although the current market believes that the housing sales market is cooling oriented, cooling does not mean a decline. " Yan Yuejin said.
According to the data released by China Index Research Institute on December 16, from January to November 2019, the sales of Evergrande, Vanke, country garden and rongchuang exceeded 500 billion yuan, followed by poly development, with 419.72 billion yuan. In terms of sales area, except Vanke, which still has single digit growth, the other four real estate enterprises have maintained double-digit growth.
Xia Dan pointed out that since the second half of the year, the all-round tightening of financing channels has forced real estate enterprises to step up price for volume promotion and speed up capital turnover, and the transaction trend has picked up. At the end of the year, real estate enterprises will step up sales promotion and the sales growth will pick up slightly in the short term.
In addition, the central economic work conference held in Beijing from December 10 to 12 stressed the need to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, fully implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism of implementing policies for the city, stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Xia Dan believes that real estate regulation will continue for a long time. From the perspective of industry operation, on the supply side, the real estate development investment data are more tenacious, reducing the need for significant relaxation of regulation; On the demand side, if the market turnover shrinks to too cold, the regulatory policy is to stabilize the market or carry out local reverse correction. From the perspective of "talent introduction", it is more likely to make marginal adjustment due to urban policy implementation, or revise the policies that hurt the just needed and improved demand groups, while financial regulation may remain relatively calm.