The RMB exchange rate returns to the 7 yuan level against the US dollar
After a lapse of three months, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar returned to the integer level of '7' yuan again on the 5th. More reflecting the expectations of international investors, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once broke the 7.00 mark, rose more than 360 points within the day, and then fell somewhat; On the onshore market, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose from the afternoon after opening at 7.0298 and finally closed at 6.9975, the highest since August 5. On the same day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0385, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day.
Cao Yuanyuan, technical director of Dongfang Jincheng research and development department, analyzed that there were three main reasons for the sharp rise of the RMB exchange rate: first, the central bank cut the MLF operating interest rate by 5 basis points on the same day, released the counter cyclical policy adjustment to the market, increased the signal, and enhanced the market expectation of the stable operation of China's macro economy in the fourth quarter; Second, China will further promote the five major measures of opening to the outside world, enhance the market's expectation of China's further opening to the outside world, and further enhance the attraction of RMB assets; Third, since October, China US trade negotiations have made positive progress. At the same time, China's economy has shown strong resilience, which supports the continuous rise of RMB in recent days.
In the past month, the offshore RMB has appreciated by nearly 1700 points. Institutions generally believe that the rebound of RMB exchange rate means that it is getting stronger, the expectation of decline is significantly convergent, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term. Zhao Qingming, an expert on international financial issues, pointed out that technically, the US dollar index is still likely to weaken in the coming week, the euro is likely to strengthen, and the pound is uncertain. The RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the progress of the trade negotiations between the two countries. If it goes smoothly, the possibility of return within 7 days cannot be ruled out.
Cao Yuanyuan also believes that the short-term internal and external environment is still the key disturbance factor for the trend of the RMB exchange rate. However, the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will not change, which is mainly based on the basic prediction of the expansion of RMB exchange rate flexibility and the increasing maturity of market players. At the same time, under the influence of multiple factors such as increased domestic countercyclical regulation, increased expectation of economic fundamentals stabilizing in the fourth quarter, and the weakening of the US dollar index under the monetary easing path of the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will narrow up and down around the '7' point in the short term.
With the increasing trend of RMB exchange rate, RMB assets have also formed a general positive. Historical data show that most countries' local currency exchange rates change in the same direction as the stock market, and the exchange rate stabilizes and rebounds, which is good for a shares, which is expected to stimulate foreign capital to increase investment in Chinese bonds. Recently, the trend of net capital inflow to the North has continued to pick up. On October 5, the net inflow of funds from the North was 5.2 billion yuan. Since October 24, the funds from the north have been flowing into a shares for 9 days. Affected by this, the Shanghai index once stood at 3000 points.