Maotai has recently made a series of moves to allow dealers to implement the quota in the fourth quarter in advance, and cooperate with e-commerce direct sales to benefit consumers. Zhongzhengjun visited sales channels in many cities over the weekend and learned that the price of Maotai has dropped significantly recently, and the quantity is preferential. Even the price of each bottle has fallen below 2300 yuan, which is equivalent to the price reduction of 3000 yuan / bottle during the peak period of more than 700 yuan.
'is it time to do it?' This is a problem for consumers and 'scalpers'.
Direct monopoly 1499 yuan / bottle 'scalpers' panic
At 2:00 p.m. on September 28, CSI Jun visited the Xi'an store of Beijing Wumart supermarket. On that day, 20000 bottles of Maotai had been sold out.
From September 26 to 29, Wumart supplied 20000 bottles of Feitian Maotai liquor to consumers every day for four consecutive days, with a price of 1499 yuan / bottle, totaling 80000 bottles.
In order to stop the cattle, the premise of the supermarket is set up: registration APP before August 31, 2019, and January 1, 2018 to date Baijiu electronic members who purchased liquor records, each received 2 bottles of 53 degrees flying Moutai's appointment. During the event, the pre order channel will be opened at 9 a.m. every day. After successful pre order, consumers can pick up goods at Wumart store with their ID card the next day.
A consumer told zhongzhengjun, 'I haven't grabbed it for two consecutive days. Just after 9 o'clock every day, 20000 bottles of wine disappear all at once, and the page can't go in at all. "
At the pick-up site, zhongzhengjun observed that people suspected of 'scalpers' followed the consumers in twos and threes, asked if they were willing to transfer and bid 1800 yuan / bottle. This means that consumers can earn 600 yuan if they go out and change hands after buying two bottles of Feitian Maotai from Wumei for 2998 yuan. But zhongzhengjun observed for 20 minutes, and no consumers were willing to transfer. They all left with the Maotai happily.
Not only Wumart, but also Suning and tmall, the direct e-commerce providers, said that they would shield "scalpers" through technical means to improve the accuracy of Maotai liquor delivery and promote product price stability. Tmall said that its interception rate of "scalpers" orders reached 99%.
Industry insiders believe that this is not only the first time Maotai liquor is put into comprehensive e-commerce channels, but also the in-depth cooperation between Maotai and e-commerce, which will help Maotai liquor expand direct sales channels, reduce the price difference earned by middlemen, and solve consumers' demand for liquor.
At present, some 'scalpers' have been unable to resist the pressure and began to sell Maotai.
Zhongzhengjun found that 'scalpers' issued' the last batch of bulk goods Maotai 'in the circle of friends and commented that' Maotai is going to fall, run quickly! '
There are also hoarders who throw out prices as low as 1800 yuan and claim that they 'don't make money'.
Price control combination fist works
Earlier, when conducting research in Liupanshui, Li Baofang, chairman of Maotai Group, communicated with citizens who came to buy wine, saying that Maotai is for drinking, not for speculation. Please don't be a 'scalper' and don't resell Maotai illegally.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of Feitian Maotai has soared all the way, once exceeding 3000 yuan / bottle. However, since September, after Guizhou Maotai company has offered a series of price control combination punches, Feitian Maotai retail prices have finally stopped rising wildly and fell significantly.
On September 11, Guizhou Maotai sales company settled in Costco's Shanghai store, with a delivery volume of 5 tons in two days and a price of 1499 yuan / bottle, which once triggered the grand occasion of "crazy robbery".
On September 17, Guizhou Maotai liquor sales company issued a notice requiring dealers to implement the fourth quarter surplus plan and placement indicators in advance in September to ensure that there is liquor available in the store every day.
On September 17, the trial production launching ceremony of the newly put into operation liquor making workshop in Maotai, Guizhou in 2020 was held to promote the continuous expansion of the production capacity of Maotai base liquor and consolidate the foundation of Maotai's development.
On September 20, tmall supermarket and Suning Tesco became Maotai e-commerce channel service providers, and Feitian Maotai was priced at 1499 yuan / bottle.
On September 28, zhongzhengjun learned from a 1919 store in Beijing that the 53 degree flying Maotai, which had no inventory in the past, has a sufficient supply of goods, and there are four bottles in stock in the store. At present, the price of a bottle of spare parts in 53 degree flying Maotai is 2499 yuan.
The shop assistant shouted, 'it's cheap enough. It was 2799 yuan a bottle last week.'
Zhong Jun Jun has many telephone outlets to sell Baijiu sellers. In a short week, Moutai has changed from 'tight' to 'big favorably'. The quotation in Shenzhen and Shanghai is 2300 yuan. A Baijiu seller in Chengdu, the price of flying Moutai 53 degrees is also creating a recent "floor price", each bottle only sells 2260 yuan, before the Mid Autumn Festival is still 2600 yuan / bottle, and the price is reduced by more than 300 yuan.
In fact, zhongzhengjun learned from dealers across the country that from the Mid Autumn Festival to the eve of the 11th golden week, each bottle of 53 degrees flying Maotai decreased by about 300 yuan. From the peak price of about 3000 yuan, the price of 53 degree flying Maotai per bottle has actually been reduced by more than 700 yuan.
Securities companies are optimistic about Maotai demand
Judging from the situation over the years, the shortage of supply in Feitian Maotai in the fourth quarter will be more obvious than that in the first three quarters. Therefore, the Baijiu industry believes that, at present, there is no fundamental change in supply and demand relationship. When the fourth quarter of the peak season is coming, and the demand exceeds supply, the market price will rebound.
"But the rebound is also limited. It is certainly impossible to have a crazy situation before. The price should not exceed 3000 yuan this year. Objectively speaking, the price of 2500+ is indeed a bubble. No matter consumers, manufacturers or dealers feel that the price is high, moderate bubble should be appropriate. Analysis of the Baijiu industry.
Some securities market researchers also hold a similar view.
The food and beverage team of China Merchants Securities believes that due to the high price difference in the market terminal price of Feitian Maotai liquor, more incremental consumers will be attracted to participate in rush buying activities. The purchase demand of traditional consumers can not be fully met. If the delivery rhythm in the fourth quarter fails to keep up, the wholesale price may still return to a high level.
Founder Securities food and beverage industry analysts believe that Guizhou Maotai requires dealers to implement the remaining plan and quota indicators for the fourth quarter in advance, and requires large dealers to make additional payments, resulting in the rapid return of funds for low-cost shipments of some dealers. In addition, the volume expectations of direct sales and e-commerce, as well as the wait-and-see psychology of terminals, the wholesale price fell slightly.
The short-term price reduction volume, the speculative demand is weakened, and the inventory of some channels is cleared. However, Maotai just needs strong demand, and the space for price decline is expected to be limited. After the recent payment is completed and the terminal wait-and-see mood eases, Founder Securities judges that Maotai prices will continue to rise.
Although the price of Maotai liquor has been falling all the way, the share price of Guizhou Maotai has reached a new high.
On September 24, Maotai's share price hit another record high -- 1184.90 yuan / share, and topped the first share in the circulating market value of a shares. On September 27, Maotai's share price closed at 1174.75 yuan / share, with a market value of 1.5 trillion yuan.