Ranking of China's urban development potential complete ranking of China's urban development potential
At present, China's urbanization is entering the era of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area. The real estate market has entered a new development stage of total balance and regional differentiation. The construction of long-term mechanism of real estate and the implementation of "one city, one policy" have been accelerated. There are huge differences in urban development potential, and urban research has become particularly important.
After more than a year of refining and quantifying the classic framework, we screened out 27 indicators and about 50000 data based on more than 60 indicators and more than 100000 data in the early stage, so as to establish a multi-dimensional, multi-level and verifiable urban development potential fundamentals + market evaluation model, Objectively rank the development potential of 336 prefecture level administrative units except Sansha City, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
This study has reference value for understanding the urban development potential, building a long-term mechanism by the government, promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, residents living and working in peace and contentment, enterprise investment decision-making and so on.
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abstract
Research background and analysis framework: the real estate market has entered the era of urban agglomeration with total balance and regional differentiation. 1) Background: real estate has entered a new cycle, and urban development has entered the era of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area. China's population aged 20-50 peaked in 2013, the ratio of existing housing units was nearly 1.1 and the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism was accelerated, marking that China's real estate market bid farewell to the high growth stage and entered a new era and new cycle of high-quality development. In the medium and long term, the three dividends of urbanization, residential improvement and urban renewal will support the stable development of China's real estate market in the future. From a regional perspective, China has entered the era of urban agglomeration and metropolitan circle, with prominent regional differentiation, huge differences in urban development potential, and more prominent urban research value. 2) Analysis framework: fundamental analysis trend, market analysis opportunity. Fundamental analysis is the core of the study and judgment of urban development potential. The key lies in the study and judgment of population. The logical chain is that people go with industry, industry determines the rise and fall of cities, and location factors such as economies of scale and transportation costs determine the industrial layout. In terms of fundamentals, we pay attention to the population status, population potential and population purchasing power on the demand side, as well as the housing stock and land financial dependence on the supply side, involving 23 indicators. On the market scene, four short-term indicators with large fluctuations, such as house price cycle, demand overdraft rate, inventory destocking and land price to house price ratio, are used to study and judge the heat of the urban market, so as to judge the entry time on the basis of fundamental analysis. According to the historical data, the accuracy is 75%.
Fundamentals: ranking of China's urban development potential in 2019. 1) Overview of the list: in 2019, Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou ranked among the top 4 in the list of medium and long-term development potential, and Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin and Hangzhou ranked among the top 10 in the second tier cities; 32 cities in the eastern region have entered the top 50, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta; More than 80% of the cities in Northeast China are behind 200. The top 100 cities gather 50% of the population with 13% of the national land, creating 73% of the GDP, accounting for 62% of the national commercial housing sales. 2) Population status: the population continues to gather in big cities, and the core cities in the central and western regions rise. At the regional level, the current population flows back to central and western provinces such as Anhui, Sichuan, Guangxi and Henan and eastern provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang. The population growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Heiji and Liaoning is sluggish or even negative. From the perspective of sub tier cities, the population continues to flow into the first and second tier cities, the overall inflow and outflow of the third tier cities are basically balanced, and the outflow of the fourth tier cities continues. From the perspective of key cities, the permanent population of Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou has increased significantly, the core cities in central and Western China such as Xi'an, Chengdu and Changsha are rising day by day, and the population growth of eastern cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou and Wuxi is slowing down. 3) Population potential: people follow the industry, and the foundation and potential of the first and second tier industries are outstanding. The first and second tier cities have created 46.5% of GDP with 25.5% of the population, and there is great potential for population agglomeration. In terms of industrial innovation, the first and second tier cities have a significant head effect. The proportion of listed companies and the total amount of invention patent authorization account for about 70% and 75% respectively. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen occupy the absolute highland, and Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu and other cities rank first. In terms of transportation location, the first and second tier cities occupy the position of transportation hub, and the number of high-speed rail starts and ends is as high as 740 and 149 respectively. The eastern region benefits from natural geography and takes the lead in developing strategic transportation infrastructure. In terms of public resources, the first and second tier cities have intensive high-quality education and medical resources, and urban rail transit improves urban operation efficiency. 4) Purchasing power: first and second tier cities have higher absolute purchasing power and lower relative purchasing power. From the absolute level, the per capita savings deposits and disposable income in first tier cities are as high as 115000 yuan and 66000 yuan respectively, much higher than those in other cities. From a relative level, the house price income ratio of first tier, second tier, third tier and fourth tier cities is 20.8, 10.6, 8.4 and 6.0 years respectively. However, due to insufficient supply in first tier cities, the house price is not determined by the median income group, but by the high-income group. 5) Housing supply: the housing supply in the first and second tier cities is tight, and the second and third tier cities are highly dependent on land finance. The housing supply in the first and second tier cities is tight, and the household ratio is 0.97 and 1.02 respectively. There is excess risk in the northeast, and the household ratio exceeds 1.1. The eastern and central regions are highly dependent on land finance, 57% and 52% respectively; The second and third tier cities are higher, 64% and 50% respectively.
Market: when will the layout of the top 100 cities in 2019 be the best? 1) Overview of the list: Based on the fundamental analysis and in combination with the situation of the city, the top 100 cities with development potential are classified into three grades, including 15 cities such as Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as the first grade, 25 cities such as Chengdu and Wuhan as the second grade, and 60 cities such as Lanzhou and Xuzhou as the third grade. 2) Volume price trend: the demand of some third and fourth tier cities is obviously overdrawn, the trading volume of some first and second tier cities has warmed up, and the market is expected to stabilize. House prices in some first and second tier cities and surrounding areas that have undergone significant adjustment will gradually stabilize, such as insufficient supply or certain upward pressure; In the early stage, some third and fourth tier cities, stimulated by the monetization of shed reform and lacking fundamental support, had adjustment risks. 3) Destocking: the overall inventory risk in the western region and the fourth tier cities is high. From the perspective of available for sale inventory, in January 2019, the inventory removal cycles of first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier sample cities were 11.7, 10.5 and 11.4 months respectively, and the third and fourth tier cities have increased to a certain extent since the second half of 2018. From the perspective of broad inventory, the land digestion cycles of the western region and the fourth tier cities in 2017 were 2.5 and 2.1 years respectively. 4) Land acquisition cost: in 2018, the ratio of land price to house price fell overall, and a few cities were still high. In March 2019, among the 100 cities in the sample, the transaction premium rates of residential land in first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities were 4.2%, 21.6% and 21.4% respectively, of which the second tier cities rose for four consecutive months and the third and fourth tier cities rose for five consecutive months. In 2018, the land price to house price ratios of first tier, second tier, third tier and fourth tier cities were 29%, 25%, 19% and 13% respectively. Except that the first tier cities increased slightly by 1 percentage point compared with 2017, the second tier, third tier and fourth tier cities decreased by 7, 5 and 2 percentage points respectively.
Embrace urban agglomeration and grasp the general trend. Metropolitan agglomerations led by central cities are more productive and save land and energy. They are the main platform to support China's high-quality economic development and the focus of China's current and future development. Among the top 100 cities with development potential in 2019, 96 are located in 19 urban agglomerations and 54 are located in 24 ten million megalopolis. From the perspective of per capita production efficiency, the per capita GDP created by scale shows a decreasing phenomenon from large to small; Cities with more than 10 million people create a GDP of 140000 yuan per capita, 2.1 times that of cities with 1-3 million people and about 5 times that of cities with less than 200000 people. At the level of urban agglomeration, the core of the 19 urban agglomerations lies in five urban agglomerations, including Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu Chongqing. It is estimated that by 2030, about 80% of China's 200 million new urban population will be distributed in 19 urban agglomerations, of which about 60% will be distributed in seven urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu and Chongqing, the Central Plains and Shandong Peninsula. At the metropolitan level, 24 metropolitan areas with more than 10 million people gather 33% of the population with 6.7% of the land, creating about 54% of the GDP, among which Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen Guanhui, Guangfo Zhao and other metropolitan areas have obvious development potential. Outside the metropolitan area, there are still two types of third and fourth tier cities worthy of attention: one is the third and fourth tier cities with prominent economic strength in the eastern coastal areas, and the other is the inland local central cities far away from the central cities and with large population in the jurisdiction or hinterland, which are mostly in the urban agglomeration.
The implementation of a real long-term real estate mechanism will contribute to the steady and healthy development of the market, which is also the common expectation of the people, the government, enterprises and other parties. The key to the long-term mechanism lies in the linkage between people and land, financial stability and urban policies. For cities with high house prices caused by continuous population inflow and insufficient land supply, increase land supply; For cities with high inventory caused by continuous population outflow and excessive land supply, reduce land supply; Through the linkage between people and land, we can achieve the balance of supply and demand, and solve the problems of high first and second tier house prices and high third and fourth tier inventory caused by the previous separation of people and land and the mismatch of supply and demand. From the experience of the United States, Britain, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, China and Singapore, excessive financial leverage of real estate is the source of risk, and monetary and financial stability is the fundamental policy. We should avoid excessive currency issuance, excessive leverage and excessive borrowing of residents, support rigid demand and improved demand and curb the demand for investment models through various means such as currency, finance, taxation and land.
Risk warning: there is a certain deviation in the model prediction; Some indicators have not published 2018 data, which affects the model estimation; The logic of tourist city is different from other cities, and the model is not considered separately.
catalogue
Research background and analysis framework: the real estate market has entered the era of urban agglomeration with total balance and regional differentiation
1.1 research background: real estate has entered a new cycle, and urban development has entered the era of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area
1.2 analysis framework: fundamental analysis trend, market analysis opportunity
2 Fundamentals: ranking of China's urban development potential in 2019
2.1 overview of the list: Shenzhen, North China, Shanghai and Guangzhou rank first, the regional central cities and the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta perform prominently, and the Northeast lags behind as a whole
2.2 population status: the population continues to gather in big cities and the core cities in central and Western China rise
2.3 population potential: people follow the industry, and the foundation and potential of the first and second tier industries are outstanding
2.4 purchasing power: first and second tier cities have higher absolute purchasing power and lower relative purchasing power
2.5 housing supply: the housing supply in the first and second tier cities is tight, and the second and third tier cities are highly dependent on land finance
3 city scene: when will the layout of the top 100 cities in 2019 be the best?
3.1 overview of the list: the top 100 with development potential is divided into three grades
3.2 volume and price trend: the demand of some third and fourth tier cities is obviously overdrawn, the trading volume of some first and second tier cities has warmed up, and the house price has stabilized
3.3 destocking: the overall inventory risk in the western region and the fourth tier cities is high
3.4 land acquisition cost: the ratio of land price to house price has dropped overall, and a few cities are still high
4 embrace urban agglomeration and grasp the general trend
text
Research background and analysis framework: the real estate market has entered the era of urban agglomeration with total balance and regional differentiation
1.1 research background: real estate has entered a new cycle, and urban development has entered the era of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area
On the whole, the population aged 20-50 peaked in 2013, the peak demand has passed, the ratio of existing housing units is nearly 1.1, and the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism has been accelerated, marking China's real estate development