When will pork prices drop when pork prices peak
At present, pork prices have reached their peak since 2013. Analysts said: 'the main reason for the rise in pork prices is the reduction in pig supply. It has been nearly a year since the occurrence of African swine fever. The production capacity of pigs and fertile sows in some areas has decreased significantly. The supply of pigs has decreased, and the price of pork has naturally increased. " Tang Ke, director of the market and Information Technology Department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, expects that the relationship between pork supply and demand will further tighten in the second half of the year, and there will be great pressure on pig prices to continue to rise.
Wang Yanan also said: "it is expected that the prices of pigs and pork will continue to rise in shock until the end of this year."
With the continuous rise of pork prices, pork prices have reached their peak since 2013. Many people lament that even the 'Second Senior brother' can't afford to climb up. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, as of 14:00 on July 29, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 24.35 yuan / kg. The price of streaky pork in a supermarket in Beijing has reached 27.8 yuan per kilogram.
Pork prices continued to rise and sales were affected
According to the data recently released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the national pig price continued to rise in June and July. In June, the average price of pork wholesale market was 21.59 yuan per kilogram, up 4.7% month on month and 29.8% year-on-year. According to the joint monitoring of the information center of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and Zhuo Chuang information, in the 30th week of 2019 (i.e. July 22-July 26), the weekly average value of the total ex factory price index of lean white strip pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 25.34 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 43.1% year-on-year. Zhuo Chuang information data show that at present, pork prices have stood at the peak since 2013.
The price of pork sold by supermarkets is higher. Zhongxin Jingwei client saw in a supermarket in Ganjiakou, Haidian District, Beijing that the price of streaky pork has reached 27.8 yuan per kilogram, and Tongji and segmented small tenderloin are 23.8 yuan and 25.8 yuan per kilogram respectively. According to the pork salesperson of the supermarket, pork prices have been rising since June. In July, the increase is about 3 yuan.
With the continuous rise of pork prices, terminal consumption has also been affected to a certain extent. The pork salesman at Beijing baidui sub market said: "pork is rising every day. We also go with the wholesale price. Pork prices are rising continuously. The sales volume is really not as good as before."
However, Ms. Li, who is buying streaky pork in the supermarket, said: "I don't think it has much impact because I buy less at home, but the price of pork is indeed the highest in history. I hope it won't continue to rise."
Reasons for the rise: the supply of pigs decreased due to classical swine fever
Summer is generally the off-season for pork sales, but this year it has risen frequently. Why? Zhuo Chuang information pork analyst Wang Yanan told Zhongxin Jingwei: "the main reason for the rise in pork prices is the reduction in pig supply. It has been nearly a year since the occurrence of African swine fever. The production capacity of pigs and fertile sows in some areas has decreased significantly. The supply of pigs has decreased, and the price of pork has naturally increased. "
Tang Ke, director of the market and Information Technology Department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, also responded recently that the rapid rise in pig prices was mainly affected by the African swine plague. In October last year, the number of fertile sows in 400 counties monitored by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, which has exceeded the 5% early warning line. After that, the decline expanded month by month, and the year-on-year decline reached 26.7% in June this year. According to the production law of pigs, it takes about 10 months from the pregnancy of sows and the birth of piglets to the slaughter of fattening pigs. The basic production capacity of pigs decreased in October last year, resulting in the reduction of pig supply and the continuous rise of prices since June and July this year.
Future trend of pork price: shock rise
Recently, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces have taken steps to stabilize pork prices and ensure pork supply. Zhejiang provincial finance will give 500 yuan per head introduction subsidy to qualified large-scale farms. Guangdong Province has promulgated the "ten pig rules" to include the minimum number of pigs in the mayor responsibility system of the "vegetable basket". Shandong provincial finance has also issued a package of supporting policies to ensure the stable production and market supply of pigs.
So, can the policy increase stabilize the pork price? In this regard, Wang Yanan said: 'pig production capacity is now becoming tense, and various places really need some policy incentives and constraints. However, farmers' willingness to resume breeding is still relatively low, so the effect of the policy remains to be seen. "
If the production capacity does not go up, how will the pork price go in the year? Tang Ke expects that the relationship between pork supply and demand will further tighten in the second half of the year, and there will be great pressure on pig prices to continue to rise. Wang Yanan also said: "it is expected that the prices of pigs and pork will continue to rise in shock until the end of this year."
From our current survey, the production capacity of live pigs is still shrinking. Although many places have policies to encourage rehabilitation, at present, the effect of rehabilitation is not very ideal. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the production capacity of pigs should be reduced by another part. Then, pig prices and pork prices may continue to rise. " Wang Yanan added.