The National Bureau of statistics released the semi annual report of China's economy
What does GDP growth of 6.3% mean in the first half of the year
Yesterday, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference. Mao Shengyong, director and spokesman of the Department of comprehensive national economic statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2019 and answered reporters' questions. According to preliminary accounting, China's GDP in the first half of this year was 450933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% at comparable prices. Quarter by quarter, the first quarter increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the second quarter increased by 6.2%. At the same time, the growth of residents' income was faster than the economic growth, with an actual growth of 6.5% after deducting price factors.
Question 1: how to understand the 6.3% growth rate?
A: among the world's major economies
"On the whole, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in the first half of the year, continuing the development trend of overall stability and progress in stability." Mao Shengyong said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the same day that at the same time, we should also see that the current domestic and foreign economic situation is still complex and severe, global economic growth has slowed down, external instability and uncertainties have increased, the problem of unbalanced and insufficient domestic development is still prominent, and the economy is facing new downward pressure.
How to understand the GDP growth rate of 6.3% in the first half of the year? Mao Shengyong said that 6.3% is a relatively stable speed. In the first quarter of this year, China's economy grew by 6.4% and slowed slightly by 0.1 percentage points in the first half of this year. If combined with employment, prices, income, ecological environment and other indicators, the economy still operates smoothly within a reasonable range. 6.3% is not a low speed. In the first quarter of this year, the economic growth rate was 6.4%, which was the fastest among the world's major economies. China's growth rate of 6.3% in the first half of this year should still be among the best among the world's major economies.
Question 2: can the annual economic goals be achieved?
A: the fundamentals of stable economic operation will not change
Mao Shengyong said that 6.3% is a relatively high gold content. The employment situation is relatively stable, prices have maintained a moderate or basically stable trend, and residents' income has increased rapidly. At the same time, we should see that the energy consumption of 10000 yuan GDP has decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating that the ecological environment is also improving. Therefore, the growth of 6.3% is a qualitative and sustainable growth.
6.3% is a hard won speed. Mao Shengyong said that in the first half of this year, the world economic growth, including the expansion of world trade, slowed down, some structural contradictions accumulated in China for a long time became prominent, and there was downward pressure on the economy. Under such circumstances, China did not engage in the strong stimulation of flood irrigation, but more promoted reform and innovation in China. It was hard won to stimulate the vitality of market players and promote steady economic progress by better promoting innovative macro-control, optimizing the business environment, reducing taxes and fees on a large scale.
6.3% is a speed with afterforce support. Mao Shengyong said that the target task for the whole year of 2019 is between 6.0% - 6.5%, and 6.3% in the first half of the year has laid a good foundation for achieving the target task for the whole year. From the perspective of the second half of the year, it should be said that the external environment may still be relatively complex, there is still downward pressure in China, but the fundamentals of stable economic operation will not change, there is still a lot of room for policy reserves, and the domestic market is also growing. Taken together, these factors are conducive to achieving the main objectives of economic and social development throughout the year.
Question 3: how about residents' income?
A: China is at the level of upper middle income countries
According to the data released yesterday, the per capita disposable income of national residents in the first half of this year was 15294 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.8% over the same period last year. After deducting price factors, the actual increase was 6.5%, continuing to lead the growth of GDP.
Mao Shengyong said that according to the current classification criteria of the United Nations, China is at the level of upper middle-income countries.
As for when China will become a high-income country, Mao Shengyong responded that it depends on China's economic growth rate and price level in the future, the growth of other countries, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar or other currencies; Another point is that international institutions may also make some changes to the standards of income division.
Instead of discussing whether we can become a high-income country and when we will enter the threshold of a high-income country, it is more important for us to focus on economic development, improve people's living standards and income levels, promote more economic quality and efficiency, and move towards high-quality development.
Question 4: how about consumption?
A: the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth exceeds 60%
In the first half of the year, consumer prices rose moderately, while industrial producer prices were basically stable. National consumer prices rose 2.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the first quarter. Among them, both urban and rural areas increased by 2.2%.
By category, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 3.9%, clothing by 1.8%, housing by 2.0%, daily necessities and services by 1.1%, transportation and communication by 1.0%, education, culture and entertainment by 2.5%, medical care by 2.6% and other supplies and services by 2.2%. Among the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol, grain prices rose by 0.5%, pork prices rose by 7.7% and fresh vegetables prices rose by 9.2%. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 1.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter. In June, the national consumer price rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the previous month; Decreased by 0.1% month on month.
Mao Shengyong said that from the perspective of contribution rate, the basic role of consumption continues to be consolidated. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of consumption growth to economic growth exceeded 60%, reaching 60.1%, and the internal upgrading of consumption continued. The contribution rate of capital formation is 19.2%, and the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services is 20.7%.
Question 5: is the real estate market stable?
A: there will be no ups and downs
In terms of investment, in the first half of the year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 29910 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, 0.2 percentage points faster than that from January to May and 0.5 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Among them, private investment was 18028.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%. By industry, infrastructure investment increased by 4.1%. The investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.4% year-on-year, 4.6 percentage points faster than the total investment; Investment in high-tech services increased by 13.5%, 7.7 percentage points faster than total investment.
In the first half of the year, the national investment in real estate development was 6160.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, 0.9 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. The sales area of commercial housing in China was 757.86 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; National commercial housing sales reached 7069.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%, which was the same as that in the first quarter. Mao Shengyong said that the current real estate market is generally stable. In the next stage, we can still stabilize the land price, house price and expectation, and there will be no ups and downs in real estate investment.