Compared with new houses, second-hand houses have great advantages. The price advantage and community supporting facilities are very obvious. What about the price of second-hand houses in Beijing in 2019? Let's bring you Beijing second-hand house price forecast and house price trend analysis!
In October, the number of online signatures of second-hand houses in Beijing was less than 9000, and the number of online signatures in November was about 11000. However, the amount of online signing in October is affected by special factors. In mid September, Beijing issued a new policy on housing provident fund loans, and the amount of the first set of provident fund loans just to be applied for was greatly reduced due to the impact of the new policy. In order not to be affected by the new deal, we rush to sign online before September 17, and advance part of the online signing volume in October to September. The actual online signing in October is about 11000 sets.
Since June this year, the leading indicator of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing - the amount of belt has been declining. In November, the band viewing volume fell by more than 40% compared with the peak of this year. At present, this downward trend has not ended, but the decline is slowing down. From the indicators in November, the price of second-hand houses will be adjusted downward from now on to the Spring Festival.
2019 is coming in less than a month. Some top real estate experts predict that house prices in Beijing will soar in the second half of 2019. I have reservations about this view. As early as 2017, I predicted that the price of second-hand houses in Beijing would fall in the short term, uncertain in the medium term and optimistic in the long term. So how should house prices go in 2019?
House is also a commodity, but its liquidity is worse than other commodities. The price of house also follows the pricing principle of microeconomics, that is, the price is determined by supply and demand. At present, Beijing's second-hand housing is in a weak balance of slightly oversupply. In this state, house prices will fall slowly. Of course, the decline in house prices does not mean that there is no shortage of houses in Beijing. As the world's top world-class city, Beijing still lacks houses. Lack of houses, why do house prices fall? The main reason is that the government's demand control is too strict. It is very strict for both the first rigid demand and the improvement families. Even the way to buy a house after divorce is blocked.
To judge the second-hand housing price in Beijing in 2019, we should focus on the changes on the demand side, and the supply side is now relatively stable. Since the third quarter, the national economy has been declining, and Beijing is no exception. Affected by high house prices, the growth rate of total social retail consumption in Beijing has decreased from 12% in 2012 to 3.7% this year, of which the year-on-year growth rate in October this year has decreased to 1%, and even the growth rate will turn negative in the next few months. This is an extremely terrible signal. Thirdly, by stimulating the real estate development economy, consumption, the ballast of Beijing's economic growth, will collapse.
Now there are some voices in the economic circle: relax the real estate regulation again to provide a bottom for the downward economy. Our vice premier is a top scholar in macroeconomics. He is very aware of China's current macro leverage. If we relax real estate regulation to stimulate the economy again, we will really repeat the mistakes of Japan.
Now the fiscal revenue of some local governments is beginning to be tight, and there is an impulse to sell land sharply again. But Beijing is different. Beijing's annual fiscal surplus is very large. There is no need to over sell land to increase fiscal revenue. Therefore, according to my experience and professional judgment, the probability of relaxation of real estate regulation in Beijing in 2019 is very small. Under the condition that the real estate regulation policy remains unchanged, I predict that the second-hand house price in Beijing will fall slowly at the rate of 3% - 5% in 2019. For the first rigid family, we still need to wait and see. The best time has not yet come.
Of course, I will pay close attention to future policy changes. Once the policy changes, I will adjust my forecast in time. The real estate price model I built can detect the increase of house prices 1-2 months in advance. Please pay attention to my official account of WeChat. I will update the leading indicators and policies frequently!