Original title: GDP trillion City three quarterly report: Beijing and Shanghai GDP has exceeded 2 trillion!
4hw.org.cn as of October 29, 2019, among the 16 cities with GDP exceeding trillion at the end of 2018, 11 cities have published the third quarter economic data. The 21st century economic research institute makes a comparative analysis of the development quality of China's' top cities' from six dimensions of GDP and growth, fixed investment growth, consumption growth, industrial growth and foreign trade growth.
In terms of economic aggregate, Shanghai ranks first. Shanghai and Beijing are the only two cities with GDP exceeding 2 trillion yuan in China.
It is predicted that by the end of the year, the GDP trillion club will expand to 17 cities, and Foshan is expected to be among them.
In terms of the growth rate of fixed asset investment, Guangzhou ranked first with a growth rate of 21.1%.
In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Chengdu increased by 8.0%, which has been maintained at 8% for 12 consecutive months.
As of October 29, 2019, among the 16 cities with GDP exceeding trillion at the end of 2018, 11 cities have published economic data in the third quarter.
What is the economic performance of club cities with GDP over trillion in the first three quarters?
The 21st century economic research institute makes a comparative analysis of the development quality of China's' top cities' from six dimensions of GDP and growth, fixed investment growth, consumption growth, industrial growth and foreign trade growth.
In terms of economic aggregate:
Shanghai ranks first, and without the total GDP of Shenzhen in the first three quarters, Shanghai and Beijing are the only two cities with a GDP of more than 2 trillion yuan in China, followed by Guangzhou, Chongqing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Wuxi and Ningbo.
According to the forecast, by the end of the year, the GDP trillion club may expand to 17 cities, and Foshan is expected to be among them.
Foshan is expected to advance to trillion Club
According to the total GDP data of the third quarter published so far:
Shanghai and Beijing are in the first tier with 2536.12 billion yuan and 2313 billion yuan respectively.
Guangzhou, Chongqing and Tianjin ranked third to fifth with 1786.899 billion yuan, 1607.356 billion yuan and 1525.635 billion yuan respectively, ranking in the second tier.
In the first three quarters, the GDP of Suzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan and Hangzhou has exceeded trillion yuan, and they are in the third tier.
At present, the GDP of Wuxi and Ningbo is more than 800 billion yuan.
As of October 30, of the 16 cities with a GDP of more than one trillion last year, five cities, including Shenzhen, have yet to release the third quarter data.
However, according to the GDP data of 1753.069 billion yuan in the third quarter of last year and 1213.392 billion yuan in the first half of this year, Shenzhen will still be in the top position in the first three quarters.
In the new first tier cities, Chengdu and Wuhan have been chasing each other in GDP ranking in recent years. In the first three quarters of 2019, there is still no significant gap between the two cities. Chengdu is only higher than Wuhan by 51.887 billion yuan.
In terms of the total GDP in the first three quarters of 2019, what cities will the trillion Club add at the end of the year?
At the end of 2018, Foshan's GDP growth rate was only 6.3%, 2.0 percentage points lower than that in 2017, with a total GDP of 993.588 billion yuan, which resulted in the city's missing from the GDP trillion club.
In the work report of Foshan Municipal Government in 2019, the GDP growth target proposed for this year is 6% - 6.5%. If the growth rate is 6.5%, Foshan's GDP can break the trillion mark by the end of 2019. In the first three quarters of this year, Foshan's GDP growth rate was 7%.
This means that by the end of 2019, the GDP of trillion club members may increase by one city to 17 cities.
In terms of GDP growth, Chengdu is the fastest growing city among the 11 cities that published data, and the only city with a growth rate of more than 8%.
Since the first quarter of 2017, the GDP growth rate of Chengdu has been kept in the range of 8% - 8.2% for 11 consecutive quarters, which shows that the city has maintained a relatively stable economic growth momentum in recent years. There is no significant fluctuation in the data of industry, service industry, investment or foreign trade in the subdivided economic field.
Wuhan ranked second in GDP growth rate by 0.3 percentage points, and continued to pursue Chengdu. The GDP growth rate of 8 of the remaining 9 cities is equal to or higher than 6%, and that of Tianjin is the lowest, with only 4.6% in the first three quarters.
It should be noted that this growth rate is higher than the annual growth target of 4.5% set in the work report of Tianjin municipal government in 2019, and 1.3 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter of 2018.
However, Tianjin's ranking in the national cities is challenged. If the gap in economic growth continues to be large in the next few quarters, Suzhou's GDP may surpass Tianjin by the end of 2020.
Guangzhou's investment growth is far ahead
In the first three quarters, the performance of the members of the GDP trillion club in the growth rate of fixed asset investment was quite different.
Guangzhou ranked first with a growth rate of 21.1%. According to the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, the driving force of high growth rate is mainly from Guangzhou's efforts in major projects since this year.
Specifically, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Guangzhou was 19.1%, 24.8% and 21.1% respectively, far exceeding the data of the same period last year.
The reason is that the leading role of Guangzhou's major projects is significant. In the first half of the year alone, 62 projects with an investment of more than one billion yuan were completed, an increase of 23 on a year-on-year basis.
In the first three quarters, Guangzhou's major projects in infrastructure and industrial investment continued to advance. Investment in railway transportation and road transportation increased by 53.5% and 38.7% respectively. Driven by major projects such as Foxconn, LG OLED, Guangzhou Yuexin 12 inch and Evergrande intelligent auto parts, industrial investment increased by 25.9%.
Although Tianjin's GDP growth rate is relatively low, its fixed asset investment growth rate ranks second in 11 cities, reaching 15.4%.
Hangzhou ranked third with a growth rate of 11.9% in fixed asset investment.
Similar to Guangzhou, large projects have a significant driving effect on Hangzhou's fixed asset investment, such as traffic investment driven by subway, airport construction and other projects, up 27.0%, driving fixed asset investment up 3.3%.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment in Shanghai is only 0.1 percentage points higher than that in Beijing, ranking 10th in 11 cities with a growth rate of 4.8%.
However, there are still bright spots to be found in Shanghai, that is, the industrial investment sector still maintains a high growth rate. In the first three quarters, the industrial investment in Shanghai increased by 16.3%, which has been the 18th month with double-digit growth.
In terms of consumption, Chengdu, which is in the process of building a "consumption city with Chinese characteristics", achieved a growth rate of 9.7% in total retail sales of consumer goods in the third quarter, ranking first in 11 cities.
In the field of consumption, Chengdu has many bright spots to look for.
The first is the steady promotion of consumption upgrading. The retail sales of sports and entertainment products, Chinese and Western medicine products and cultural office supplies increased by 12.8%, 18.7% and 10.0% respectively;
The second is that the 'first store' has a good economic development trend, with 371 new first stores of international brands, exceeding the number of first stores in 2018, second only to Shanghai and Beijing;
Third, the construction of the international food capital was accelerated, with catering revenue above designated size increasing by 29.7%, 25.1 percentage points higher than that of retail sales above designated size.
In addition to Chengdu, the consumption data of the first three quarters in many cities are also remarkable.
For example, in the first three quarters of Hangzhou, there was a strong demand for innovative commodities, with the retail sales of wearable smart devices, smart home appliances and audio-visual devices in the above designated units increasing by 48.9% and 34.8% respectively, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 28.8%.
In the consumer market of Guangzhou, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer upgrading goods has accelerated. The retail sales of cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry above designated size increased by 13.3% and 36.8% respectively, 4.8 and 4.6 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year.
In the first three quarters, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in Tianjin fell by 1.4%, becoming the only negative growth city among 11 cities. As an important indicator of urban consumption vitality, Tianjin's low growth performance in this respect should be paid enough attention.
Rapid growth of emerging industries in Hangzhou
In terms of the growth rate of industrial added value above Designated Size, we can see that the growth rate of 11 trillion Club cities is not high.
Based on the growth rate of 5.6% of the added value of industries above Designated Size in the third quarter, only Chengdu, Wuhan and Wuxi are higher than this value.
In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Chengdu increased by 8.0%, which has been maintained at 8% for 12 consecutive months.
In addition, in terms of industrial volume, in 2018, the total industrial added value of Chengdu reached 566.38 billion yuan, second only to Shenzhen in the total industrial added value of 15 sub provincial cities, which means that Chengdu has surpassed most coastal cities in industrial volume.
In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above Designated Size reached 7.1%, ranking the second in 11 cities;
Wuhan ranked third with a growth rate of 5.6%.
The growth rate of industries above Designated Size in Beijing, Tianjin and Suzhou is relatively backward, with an increase of 2.9%, 2.2% and 0.9% respectively.
Although the added value of Hangzhou's industry above the designated size increased by only 4.4% in the third quarter, the city intends to increase its investment in industry in the future.
Hangzhou launched the "new manufacturing plan" in September, focusing on the development of strategic emerging industries.
It is planned that by 2025, the total industrial output value of the city will reach 25000 billion yuan, and the added value of industries above Designated Size will reach 680 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 10%;
The city's enterprises have entered 30 of China's top 500 enterprises and 40 of China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises. More than 100 strategic emerging industries and future industrial projects are attracted every year. It is expected that in about five years, the added value of strategic emerging industries will account for more than 50%.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the development of strategic emerging industries in Hangzhou is also remarkable. The added value of high-tech industries is 147 billion yuan, up 7.3%, accounting for 57.8% of the industries above Designated Size, up 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year.
In terms of the growth rate of foreign trade, Chengdu and Chongqing, two cities in the west, have obvious advantages over coastal areas, with growth rates of 18.6% and 12.3% respectively.
In contrast, coastal cities, such as Guangzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou, which are more seriously affected by the global economy, are only growing by 0.5%, - 0.5% and - 4.4%.
Chengdu's high growth in foreign trade is attributed to the rapid growth in exports of high-value-added and high-tech goods. The exports of turbo engines, integrated circuits and LCD panels increased by 31.3%, 37.1% and 2 times.
At the same time, Chengdu high tech comprehensive bonded zone has a good growth momentum, with the total import and export volume increasing by 26% in the first three quarters, and its scale has ranked first in the national comprehensive bonded zone for 18 consecutive months.
According to the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, under the background of 17 member cities of "GDP trillion club" at the end of the year, the local economic development shows the following characteristics:
First of all, the economies of these cities are undergoing transformation and upgrading in different ways. For example, Hangzhou, Chongqing and other places attach great importance to the emerging manufacturing industry, and Chengdu vigorously supports the consumer industry;
Secondly, facing the problems of some cities' exports and the declining of fixed assets investment, we should build a new industrial division system by strengthening cooperation with the "one belt" along the line.
Finally, the exploration of cities with a GDP of trillion in tax reduction and fee reduction, reduction of factor cost price, improvement of business environment and improvement of international competitiveness may bring more local practical experience to the transformation and upgrading of China's economy.