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Housing loan interest rate may be reduced, and housing loans in third and fourth tier cities will en

Original title: for the first time in this year, the RRR will be lowered today: 800 billion yuan is on the way, will the mortgage interest rate be lowered?

On the 6th, the people's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement for the first time in 2020, releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds.

On the first day of the new year, the central bank announced that it had decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on January 6 (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto finance companies). The relevant person in charge of the central bank pointed out that this is a comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements, reflecting counter cyclical adjustment, effectively increasing the stable source of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, reducing the cost of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, and directly supporting the real economy.

In the four RRR reductions since 2019, the central bank has reduced the financing cost of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises through three comprehensive RRR reductions and one targeted RRR reduction to support the development of the real economy.

In addition, the RRR reduction also provides support for the stability of market funds before the Spring Festival.

Zeng Gang, deputy director of the national finance and development laboratory, said that in the short term, the reduction is to release liquidity to meet the capital demand peak before the Spring Festival and ensure the stability of the market. Generally speaking, there is more demand for investment and return of funds around the Spring Festival. Zeng Gang further said that this year's Spring Festival was earlier than in previous years, liquidity faced a slight pressure of capital maturity, and the demand for cash increased. At the beginning of this month, the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve requirement to create a more stable capital interest rate, reflecting the flexibility and moderation of the prudent monetary policy.

Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, predicted that in the next stage, there is still room and necessity for comprehensive RRR reduction. Combined with targeted RRR reduction, it is estimated that there is still room for 2-3 RRR reduction.

CITIC macro said that the timing and intensity of the reduction were in line with expectations, and the liquidity gap before the Spring Festival provided a window opportunity for the moderate widening of the aggregate policy. Under the policy keynote of "reducing the cost of social financing", it is reiterated that the orientation of monetary policy for the whole year will be "both price and quantity". The quantity will take the lead in January, and the interest rate is expected to be cut in the second quarter.

Mortgage interest rate to fall?

On January 20, the central bank will announce the market quoted rate (LPR) for new loans. It is generally expected in the industry that the current round of RRR reduction will affect the new LPR quotation.

According to the report issued by E-House Research Institute, changes in monetary policy and financial environment have a more obvious impact on LPR quotation mechanism and housing loan interest rate, especially the use of tools including standard reduction, which has a more direct impact on monetary liquidity and interest rate.

Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of E-House Research Institute, told the client of Zhongxin Jingwei that the liquidity has increased after the reduction of RRR, and LPR is expected to decrease. At the same time, the loan work of real estate banks will also be adjusted, which will further reduce the interest rate and cost of real estate loans, and ultimately benefit home buyers. It will also make the work of converting the pricing method of stock floating loans better in March this year.

Huatai Securities Research Report believes that the LPR did not continue to adjust in December last year, but under the requirement of the central economic work conference to 'reduce social financing costs', the central bank's driving force to guide the LPR to decline remains unchanged. It may also be a more appropriate way to reduce the bank's debt side cost by reducing the reserve requirement, so as to guide the LPR to continue to reduce in January this year.

Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that the LPR quotation over the next five years may show a slight downward trend, which means that the real estate market will maintain a stable operation next year, and the real estate investment growth rate is significant, with less downward risk.

Wen bin predicted that the one-year quotation for the new phase of LPR will be 4.1%, and the quotation for more than five years will be 4.75%.

What's behind Yang Ma?

It is worth noting that after the announcement of the lowering of the standard on January 1, some people thought it was a signal of 'releasing water'.

The central bank has made it clear that the reserve requirement reduction is a hedge against the cash supply before the Spring Festival, and the total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable, flexible and moderate, rather than flooding, which reflects the scientific and steady grasp of the counter cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, and the orientation of prudent monetary policy has not changed.

In order to cope with the funding gap caused by the open market operation, the maturity of Omo, the withdrawal of cash during the Spring Festival, tax payment and the issuance of local bonds, in addition to reducing the reserve requirement, what will the central bank do?

Dong ximiao, a special researcher, stressed that the "three step" policy of optimizing the reserve ratio of small and medium-sized banks and micro banks should be conducive to the development of small and medium-sized banks' targeted deposit Support and reduce the capital cost of small and medium-sized banks.

On January 5, the central bank held a meeting to clarify the seven major work priorities in 2020, in which it mentioned: to ease the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises and increase financial support for supply side structural reform. We will promote the joint efforts of multiple departments, make good use of policy tools such as targeted reserve requirement reduction, refinancing and rediscount, macro Prudential evaluation and credit management, and effectively promote the improvement of small and micro enterprises' financing.

According to the analysis of Guohai Securities Research Report, before the Spring Festival, we can focus on other monetary policy operations to make up the liquidity gap, including reverse repurchase, medium-term loan facility (MLF), supplementary mortgage loan (PSL) and so on.