Original title: Beijing's second-hand housing 'cold winter' property owners fall to millions, still difficult to sell
Four seas net news' the owner just called, 5.9 million can sell. 'as long as you buy it sincerely, you can talk about the price. Twenty minutes ago, the offer was still 5.98 million. However, an instant drop of 80000 is not the bottom line. This two bedroom apartment in Chaoyang District, Beijing, has already reduced its price by 1.7 million yuan in the past two months.
In Xiao Wu's impression, when the market was low in the past, the prices of small houses were still relatively strong. But now, from Wangjing hot district to Dawanglu, which just needs to gather, the second-hand house has dropped by one million yuan. According to the shell Research Institute, in October this year, Beijing's second-hand housing owners cut prices by 91.6%, the highest since the '3 & middot; 17 New Deal'.
The psychological expectations of both sides of the buyer and the seller change together, the buyer hesitates, and the owner feels anxious. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the selling price of second-hand residential buildings in first tier cities rose 0.2% month on month in November, but Beijing fell 0.4% month on month, falling for five consecutive months.
"At present, various regulatory policies remain stable, and the demand for first-time home ownership and improved housing exchange has no heating power; in addition, there is a lot of phased supply of new housing, especially the competitive relationship between the restricted housing and the second-hand housing market, so it is difficult for the market to recover without increasing demand. According to Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute.
Two years after the implementation of the regulation, the Beijing property market is still in a long period of self-healing.
Keep cooling down
In December, as Beijing entered the severe winter, Xiao Wu stood at the door of the shop and waited for customers to see the house. At the age of 19, she has been a real estate agent in Beijing for 16 years. He has witnessed Beijing's property market step by step towards fanaticism, and has personally experienced the sudden end of the market after regulation. The last month is the busiest time of the year.
'on December 8, he signed a 4.48 million house for the customer, and on December 15, he signed a 3.03 million house supply & hellip; & hellip;' looking at his work record, he showed a momentary relief. Xiaowu is located in Chaoyang District, the largest area in Beijing, with a permanent population of 3.605 million last year. It is also the place with the highest concentration of potential buyers.
But anxiety is still hard to hide. Accompany customers to see the interval, small Wu smoke one after another. 'it's too cold and stressful. You see, I've got gray hair. 'in fact, for him, recent results have been the best of the year. If you don't have these orders, you may not be able to pass the year. The other clerks can only open one order in three or four months.
"Before the regulation and control of the house, there was no need to sell the house at all. When the house supply was hung up, everyone scrambled for it. We couldn't even find the key when we took it. "Xiao Wu sighs that in the past, I didn't have time to show customers four sets of houses in the afternoon like this.
According to the data of the Research Institute of I love my family (4.260, 0.00, 0.00%), the average transaction price of second-hand residential buildings in Beijing in November was 54338 yuan / m2, down 0.83% month on month compared with October, and 1.69% lower than that in November last year, which is the lowest since March this year, and the overall price level in recent March has returned to the beginning of the year.
Among the administrative regions with more trading volume in the month, the average transaction price of Xicheng District increased by 2.81% month on month, and Shunyi district increased by 1.83% month on month. In addition, the other nine districts all fell month on month, with Shijingshan, Tongzhou, Daxing and Changping all falling by more than 5%. The downward trend of second-hand house prices is more obvious.
In this game between the buyer and the seller, the owner's psychological defense line is also declining. According to the monitoring data of Beijing wheat field transaction, the overall bargaining range of buyers in November was - 6.9%, 1% lower than that of last month, and the bargaining space of customers reached the highest level since 2017.
In addition to the substantial increase in bargaining space, his own experience in selling houses has made him feel a lot. "Once, the number of houses sold was 2.7 million yuan. I wanted to wait, but later it was reduced to 1.7 million yuan. That kind of psychological gap is very hard to bear. Li Hua, a senior buyer of real estate, said that once he saw the transaction difficult, he felt more anxious because he could not bear the risk of asset loss.
Just need to load the entrance
Five years ago, China's property market was warming up, and Beijing's real estate prices almost doubled. However, the turning point is coming soon. On March 17, 2017, the regulation was implemented, and the "house recognition and loan recognition" pushed the threshold of house purchase straight up, and countless speculators were rejected. Since then, Beijing's second-hand housing has fallen for nine consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 13.5%; the average price of the whole year in 2018 is still down 3.3% year-on-year.
Investment demand has declined significantly. 'once upon a time, the more housing prices rose, the more room there was for investment. As soon as a new dish opened, three or five friends went to see it together. But now, it's hard to stir up a frenzied desire to buy a house. 'Li Hua said.
It's more of a demand for admission to the city.
For seven years, Wang Lan finally took root in Beijing this year. After giving birth to the baby at the end of February, she began to discuss the house with her husband. 'it costs a lot to raise a child. If you don't start it, you can't save the down payment in the future. "But when she really looked at the house, she found that the city house was too expensive to afford. Parking in old communities is a problem, and the quality of life is difficult to guarantee. Finally, they chose to settle down in Tongzhou outside the Fifth Ring Road.
Investors to get rid of the problem, Wang Lan such as this kind of rigid demand is becoming the main driving force to prop up the market. According to the statistics of my family, 74.97% of the customers chose to buy their first house in November, an increase of 1.52 percentage points over October. After a short period of narrowing in October, this proportion reached a new high since the statistics in November, and just demand is still the main force in the market.
When the second-hand housing is also "for quantity", just need admission also has a short-term pull on the transaction. According to the statistics of Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, there were 11203 sets of online signatures for second-hand houses in Beijing in November, an increase of 2324 sets compared with 8879 sets of online signatures for second-hand housing in Beijing in October, with a month on month increase of 26.2% and a year-on-year increase of 32.1%.
I love my home research institute analysis that the long-term downturn in transaction and price decline has accumulated a lot of potential demand in Beijing's second-hand housing market. After a period of wait-and-see, and the recent loosening of the regulatory policies in Nanjing, Shenzhen and other places, the willingness of these demands to enter the market has increased, and the market activity has risen slightly.
However, the regulation of Beijing's property market is still under high pressure, and the possibility of loosening is very small. The effective demand for house purchase in the market is still mainly rigid demand, and it is difficult for housing prices to rise. "According to the above-mentioned institutions.
New house second hand house keeps sticking
In addition to the game between buyers and sellers and the market, Beijing's second-hand housing continues to suffer from low temperature, which is closely related to the large number of competing houses in recent years.
At the end of 2017, Beijing began to sell large-scale non competitive housing plots, and relevant projects began to be concentrated in the market from 2018. Zhongyuan Real estate data show that in the past two years, the limited competitive housing accounted for 70% of the Beijing market supply. Daxing, Fengtai, Fangshan and Changping are the main supply areas.
Due to the restrictions on the selling price of houses in the stage of land transfer, the sales price of the restricted competitive houses is usually lower than the market level in the same region, so there is a great diversion of the second-hand housing market.
However, this does not mean that restricted competitive housing is popular in the market. Due to the large supply and relatively concentrated regions, the overall digestion of Beijing's competitive housing is not good.
Zhongyuan Real Estate pointed out that by the end of November this year, Beijing had a cumulative supply limit of 54000 units of competitive housing, and the online signing scale was about 23000 sets, and the overall de stocking rate was only about 43%. The inventory scale exceeded 30000 sets for the first time. Among them, Fangshan District, where the supply is relatively concentrated, has a rate of 22.7%, which is only about half of that of the whole city.
So far, the inventory of commercial housing in Beijing has reached 75600 units, a record high in nearly eight years. In addition, a total of 23400 units were contracted and 31000 units were in stock, which also set a new record.
According to the Central Research Institute, since the second half of 2018, the joint ownership housing and restricted competitive housing have ushered in the market peak, gradually occupying an important position in the market supply and demand, and rapidly improving the effective supply of the market. However, some regional projects have been pushed into the market, product homogeneity is serious, the market is obviously in a state of oversupply, and there are huge challenges between real estate enterprises.
More than that, the above-mentioned institutions said that 80% of the projects entering the market have lost or will face losses.
In the short term, there will be no end to the gluing state of restricted competitive housing and second-hand housing. "Restricted competitive housing diverts second-hand housing demand, which will continue next year. Especially in the areas where the supply of restricted competitive housing is concentrated, the transaction volume and transaction price of second-hand housing will continue to be affected. 'Guo Yi thinks.
I love my home research institute said that at present, Beijing's property market regulation has been the largest in history. In addition, since the fourth quarter of this year, there has been more fine-tuning in various regions, so there is little room for further policy increases in the future. However, Beijing is still the benchmark of China's property market. Under the strategy of "no speculation on housing and housing", it is difficult to loosen the policy. It is expected that the policy of Beijing's property market will remain stable in 2020.
Under the tight policy and the market, Beijing is still a heavy ticket to the city.