The original title: large flat type drops by 1 million yuan! Beijing's housing price has experienced the longest decline cycle
4hw.com.cn looks at the current housing prices in Beijing. Xiao a is very happy to sell the house in time in March.
In March this year, with the help of a wave of small spring, Xiao a sold the house that had been hanging for five months for 3.3 million yuan. This suite is located in the Fourth Ring Road of Fengtai District, which belongs to the subway just needed to get on the train. Recently, the transaction price of similar units is only about 2.9 million yuan. This means that after nine months, the price of this apartment has dropped by nearly 400000 yuan and the unit price has dropped by nearly 6000 yuan / square meter. At present, the unit price is less than 50000 yuan / m2.
Before the "3.17" regulation and control, during the most crazy period of Beijing property market, the transaction price of this type of house was close to 4.2 million yuan, and the unit price reached 70000 yuan / m2.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, from July to October this year, the average transaction price of second-hand residential buildings in Beijing fell for four consecutive months. This is the longest downward cycle of Beijing's second-hand house prices since 2018.
Recently, zhongzhengjun visited the sales situation of second-hand houses in many areas of Beijing. Although the transaction volume has increased recently, the market sentiment has not obviously warmed up. In addition to the small family hot school district housing, Beijing's second-hand housing overall price reduction is still continuing.
'now only when the price is in place can the house be sold. "A number of brokers told Zhongzheng Jun.
Frequent million level discount
'Louwang 3-bedroom, southwest facing, without shelter, 160 square meters, fast cycle, can be sold for 11.5 million yuan. 'a real estate agent promotes a home in his circle of friends.
The reporter learned that the listing price of this house is 14.5 million yuan, of which the bargaining space reaches 3 million yuan. This means that the price per square meter is close to 20000 yuan. It is understood that the main reason for the big price reduction is the urgent need to realize the transaction.
This district belongs to the second new house of the Third Ring Road in North China. It has advantages in age and type of house, but also has obvious short board. There are many large-scale houses in the community and the traffic is convenient nearby. Many houses in the community are rented for the office space of the company, so the overall environment is not suitable for living. In addition, the high price is not easy to sell, so the landlord has to reduce the price greatly.
The house has been on the market for months, but there is still no deal.
In addition to large units, top school district housing has also been reduced in price. Recently, Fengqiao Apartment has a 75 square meter second-hand house with a price of 14.45 million yuan. According to the intermediary, the owner lowered the psychological price of the source of the suite, about 13.3 million can be traded. The counterpart primary school in this district is Hongmiao primary school, which is directly upgraded to No.8 Middle School and Experimental Middle School of Beijing Normal University. Both of them are top schools in Beijing. In addition, the residential area is located in the Financial Street area, the transaction unit price is high, and the average transaction price in August is as high as 190000 / m2.
Zhongzhengjun learned from a number of real estate agencies that, in addition to a very few rare projects, there is about 10% bargaining space for second-hand houses with a total price of about 10 million yuan in Beijing. Even if some landlords are not willing to lower the listing price on the intermediary platform, the extent of concession in the actual transaction is also increasing.
'in March this year, there was a wave of market in Beijing housing market. Some just needed to enter, which activated the whole chain of house purchasing. But this round of market gradually cooled down in late April, and the market returned to the state of declining trading volume. "An intermediary told Zhongzheng Jun.
However, judging from the current trading situation, the school district housing of small-sized cattle schools / direct promotion schools in Xicheng District is still quite strong. Zhongzhengjun learned that recently, aiminli community (xixiku primary school is a direct promotion school of Beijing No.4 Middle School) has a set of one house listing, which is the only non semi underground listing house in the whole community, with an offer of more than 6.5 million yuan for about 40 square meters. Sanlihe No.3 primary school, a famous traditional school, recently built a 40 square meter school district house in 83 years. The unit price is close to 160000 / m2, which still keeps a certain increase. It can be said that Xicheng small family school district is the only highland of Beijing property market.
Strictly control leverage to cool down the property market
Xiao a clearly remembers that before '3.17', when the craziest time was, there were five waves of customers coming to see the house one day. 'basically, we have to make a decision on the spot, or the house will be robbed. "Xiao a said to Zhongzheng Jun.
Why has the market changed so much in just two years?
In this round of adjustment of the real estate market, Beijing is one of the earliest regional markets to issue policies and take effect. In the view of many real estate personages, strict control of leverage and increase of supply are the main reasons for the rapid cooling of Beijing's real estate market.
At present, a series of tax rules for second-hand housing in Beijing have increased the transaction and purchase costs. Among the second-hand houses, only five or more commercial houses (with production certificate for 5 years and the only one in the name of family or individual) can enjoy the income tax exemption treatment. Second hand housing transactions that do not meet the five unique conditions will be subject to a 20% differential income tax on the value-added part. The second-hand houses with the property certificate less than two years have to levy 5.3% - 5.6% value-added tax and its surcharges on this basis. At present, the tax is generally borne by the buyer, but the seller needs to reduce the transaction price as a compensation for tax. The reporter learned that, generally speaking, about 3 million second-hand housing, if not full five only, and the original value of the last transaction is low, the seller should at least reduce the price of more than 200000 before it is easier to clinch a deal.
Another powerful policy is "non universal two sets of high loans.". According to the relevant regulations of Beijing, in addition to the two rigid standards of building plot ratio above 1.0 (including) and single building area of less than 140 square meters (inclusive), the standard price red line of ordinary residential buildings in Beijing is set as: the total price within the Fifth Ring Road is less than 4.68 million yuan. In view of the current housing price level in Beijing, a large number of houses within the Fifth Ring Road will be non ordinary houses.
According to the credit policy of "3.17 regulation" in 2017, the down payment ratio of non ordinary second set of housing should not be less than 80%, and the principle of "recognizing the house and accepting the loan" should be adopted when determining the number of houses to be purchased.
"This means that the down payment threshold for most improved demand will be greatly increased. For example, for a second-hand house of 10 million yuan, if it is a second-hand house, it means that the maximum loan is 2 million yuan, so the down payment will need 8 million cash. At present, the bank has a very strong supervision on the inflow of housing mortgage and consumer loan funds into the housing market, which makes it difficult for buyers to supplement down payment from these channels. Even for the school district housing which is regarded as & lsquo; absolute demand & quot; and the total price exceeds 12 million, the transaction cycle is relatively long. In addition, more than two years of strict regulation and control have knocked out the expectation that house prices have been rising. Some buyers have given up buying houses because of insufficient capital strength, and some have turned to wait-and-see state. The balance of the game is gradually inclined to buyers, and the cases of landlords' price reduction are increasing. 'an intermediary store manager said to Zhongzheng Jun.
The store manager said that in the past, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions were "linked list.". For example, if a house with a demand of less than 3 million yuan is considered as a just needed house, the landlord who just needs the house will get the purchase money and loan another 3 million yuan to buy a house with 6 million yuan for improvement. The landlord who has sold 6 million house can buy a house with 10 million yuan if he borrows another 4 million yuan. If the expected income and house price of house buyers continue to grow, the house price will be higher and higher under the leverage amplification effect. However, under the current credit policy, the amount of loans has dropped sharply, and this chain has been interrupted. 'the person said.
'if it's entered the market before the regulation in 2017, considering the cost of credit, the house has fallen by at least 20%. 'a buyer who bought at a high point in 2017 told zhongzhengjun.
Increase supply and stabilize price
Beijing has been short of land supply for many years, but this changed in 2017.
From the end of 2017, Beijing began to sell lots of non competitive housing on a large scale. As of October this year, Beijing has supplied 78000 new residential units, of which 47600 are restricted apartments, accounting for 61%.
In the land transfer stage, the selling price of the limited competitive housing is limited, and the sales price of the restricted competitive housing is usually lower than the market level in the same region. Zhongyuan Real Estate pointed out that from the property market data, since 2018, there have been 80000 new residential units in Beijing, of which 54400 are restricted to competition. It accounts for 68% of the total market supply. According to the data of the housing and Urban Rural Development Commission, the supply of more than 30000 residential units, especially the limited competitive housing, has been booming for two consecutive years. In the first 11 months of this year, the total number of newly built commercial residential buildings (including 33074 sets of restricted competitive housing) in Beijing increased by 60.4% year-on-year.
Limited competitive housing not only has price advantage, but also diverts the demand of second-hand housing, and reduces the average price of regional second-hand housing. After the public welfare West Bridge project with an average price of 60000 yuan / m2 was put into the market, the price of second-hand housing in the region dropped by thousands of yuan / m2 overnight.
In addition, Beijing also provides a large number of housing with common property rights, which also diverts part of the demand for second-hand housing.
However, the recent Beijing second-hand housing market turnover and look at the volume have increased. At the end of the year, the general housing market will have some market, so what is the future trend?
Zhang Bo, chief analyst of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that at present, Beijing's second-hand housing market is still in the buyer's market. Under the influence of strict control policies, the driving force of short-term and medium-term house price rise is still weak. It is expected that this round of cooling will continue until after the Spring Festival in 2020, that is, in March and April next year, the market heat is expected to pick up.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, reminded that most of the current non competitive housing projects have not gone as expected, and the inventory of new houses has increased significantly. At present, the inventory of commercial housing in Beijing is as high as 75600 units, the highest in many years. 'in order to digest the inventory, there will be a price war in the future, which will affect the price of second-hand houses. "Zhang Dawei said.