Original title: for the first time in 70 years, the United States has become a net oil exporter! International oil prices have plummeted by nearly 5%, and everything is just beginning?
According to data released by the US energy information administration on November 29, US crude oil and oil exports exceeded imports by 89000 barrels / day in September.
This is the first time that the United States has achieved a single month oil trade surplus and become a net oil exporter since 1949.
Global energy pattern changes
Data show that in September this year, the U.S. oil exports rose 18% year-on-year, with an average daily average of 8.76 million barrels; oil imports fell by 12% year-on-year, with an average daily average of 8.67 million barrels and a surplus of nearly 90000 barrels.
It is worth mentioning that the emphasis on the whole month is due to the phenomenon of "net export" in a single week for many times in the past few years with the sharp increase of shale oil production.
This is an important milestone, which shows that the shale oil and gas revolution is gradually making the United States realize energy independence, according to the US financial media.
Bob McNally, chairman of Rapidan energy group, said the shale oil and gas revolution in the United States was subverting global oil prices, production and trade flows.
In the past decade, shale oil has risen in the United States, and oil output has more than doubled, thus changing the global energy landscape. According to the US Department of energy estimates, the United States has become the world's largest oil producer, reported by CNN in September 2018.
According to the weekly oil supply and demand report released by the U.S. energy information administration on November 27, the current average daily oil production in the United States is about 12.9 million barrels. This figure is much higher than that of Saudi Arabia and Russia at this stage.
At the same time, the energy information administration of the United States also predicts that the United States will maintain a deficit in oil trade in the whole year of 2019, with an average daily reverse balance of 520000 barrels, but it will achieve a surplus in 2020, with an average daily surplus of 750000 barrels. From this perspective, it can be said that September this year may be a milestone in the global crude oil market.
In its short-term energy outlook report in November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecast for this year and next year by 30000 B / D compared with that in October, and increased the U.S. crude oil production forecast for next year by 119000 B / D compared with that in October.
The agency also expects us crude oil output to increase year by year over the next decade, setting a new record. Until 2027, the growth of US crude oil production will be stable.
International oil prices plummeted across the board
On November 30, crude oil encountered "Black Friday", and the overnight WTI crude oil fell by more than 2% in about half an hour, and then went all the way down and continued to close.
International oil prices fell sharply across the board. As of the end of the day, the main U.S. WTI crude oil fell $2.72 to $55.42/barrel, down 4.68%, the day's decline reached a new high since September 17 this year.
Brent crude oil also fell significantly, closing at US $60.73/barrel, down US $2.54 or 4.01%; Shanghai crude oil futures, which closed earlier, closed at 450.7 yuan / barrel, or 2.47% in the night trading, and Shanghai crude oil futures fell another 2% in today's opening.
Why did crude oil suddenly plummet on "Black Friday"? In the eyes of the industry, the resignation of the Iraqi Prime Minister or the overnight oil price slump was an important fuse.
According to CCTV news on the 29th, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdel Mehdi said that the recent nationwide march in Iraq has lasted for nearly two months, and the country is in extremely difficult situation, and all parties concerned are unable to control the situation. In order to protect the rights and interests of the Iraqi people and prevent the country from sliding into the whirlpool of violence, chaos and destruction, he decided to resign as prime minister and hoped that the Iraqi government could return to the right track
Iraq is OPEC's second-largest oil producer, with a daily output of nearly 5 million barrels. Analysts say that if Iraq continues to carry out anti-government protests, they may eventually affect oil exports. Affected by the situation in Iraq, international oil prices had rebounded continuously before.
The resignation of Iraq's prime minister has convinced some market investors that the protests in Iraq may be calming down in the future. As a result, the risk premium in the crude oil market has subsided, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices.
John kildaff, partner of again capital, said the drop in oil prices was due to the satisfaction of Iraqi protestors' demands, and investors may now believe that the possibility of a disruption to Iraq's oil exports has diminished.
Iraqi parliament voted Sunday to accept Prime Minister Mahdi's resignation, Reuters reported. The Iraqi parliament's media office said in a statement that parliament would ask the president to nominate a new prime minister. Members said the Mahdi authorities, including the prime minister himself, would continue to guard the government until a new government was elected.
The market's expectation of OPEC meeting turns pessimistic
In addition to the net export of crude oil from the United States and the easing of the situation in Iraq, the market is pessimistic about the upcoming organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting.
Due to the continuous growth of shale oil production in the United States, in order to keep the oil price stable, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC + was forced to implement the production reduction agreement from the beginning of 2017, which has lasted for nearly three years. As a result, its share has been shrinking, while the market share of us shale oil has continued to expand, and OPEC +'s control over oil price has gradually weakened.
In the game with us shale oil, OPEC + seems to have fallen into a vicious circle. There are great differences among member countries on whether to continue to extend the production reduction agreement. Qatar and Ecuador withdrew from OPEC successively in the year.
On December 5, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, will hold a meeting in Vienna with the alliance of 10 led by Russia to discuss whether to extend the production reduction agreement, which expires at the end of March 2020, to at least June 2020. The agreement calls for oil production to be cut to 1.2 million barrels per day.
According to Reuters, it may be difficult to reach an agreement within OPEC +. The crude oil production of Russia, Iraq, Nigeria and other countries is above the quota stipulated in the production reduction agreement, with Russia in particular 'not keeping its promise'.
According to the data, Russia's crude oil production from November 1 to 26 was 11.244 million barrels / day, 54000 barrels / day more than the quota stipulated in the production reduction agreement. This will be the eighth consecutive month in which Russia has failed to implement the production reduction agreement 100%.
As the largest producer of crude oil in the OPEC + production reduction alliance, Russia's attitude is also crucial to whether the production reduction agreement will continue to be extended. Previously, Russia has not confirmed whether to support the extension of the production reduction agreement, making the outcome of the OPEC + meeting facing greater uncertainty.
As other member states can not abide by the agreement, Saudi Arabia can only maintain the alliance of production reduction through excessive production reduction, so as to achieve the purpose of stabilizing oil price.
Since the meeting coincides with the critical moment of Saudi Aramco IPO, Saudi Arabia hopes to extend the oil production reduction agreement to boost the share price of Saudi Aramco IPO. Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to stabilize at least $60 a barrel, according to an oil consultant.
As the valuation of Saudi Aramco mainly depends on the level of oil price, before the IPO of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia will be more willing to raise oil price. The main reason for oil price rally before November 16 is that investors are bullish on oil prices.
However, it is reported that Saudi Arabia's new energy minister, Prince Abdel Aziz, will no longer tolerate "cheating" by other OPEC + member states, and will severely punish those who fail to comply with the production reduction agreement.
This statement can be interpreted in two aspects. One is that Saudi Arabia may no longer reduce production in excess; the other is that Saudi Arabia may take some actions to force other Member States to improve their performance, but the specific measures are still unclear. Either interpretation indicates that the possibility of further OPEC + production reduction in the future is unlikely.
From the perspective of demand side, under the background of global economic slowdown, the prospect of crude oil demand is worrying, which also offsets the effect of OPEC + production reduction to a certain extent, and crude oil is still in an empty environment for a long time.