Institute of urban development and environment, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Social Sciences Literature Publishing House released "real estate Blue Book: China real estate development report No.16 (2019)" this morning. Blue Book forecasts that overall, house prices are expected to rise by 7.6% in 2019! Several key cities may have exceeded the budget.
Wang yeqiang, executive editor in chief of the blue book on real estate, said that in 2019, the first and second tier cities will focus on ensuring rigid demand and improving demand, and appropriately loosen tight administrative control measures. In the case of marginal improvement of policy, the market transaction activity will be improved, and the sales area is likely to achieve a small growth; due to the loss of strong policy backing and the obvious overdraft of market demand in the third and fourth tier cities, the market sales may return to the downward channel. Through a model, we make a simple budget for several indicators of China's real estate market in 2019. The growth rate of real estate investment is expected to be 6.98%, the growth rate of commercial housing sales area is - 0.35%, and the average price of commercial housing is expected to be 5.16%.
Specifically, urbanization is still a fundamental driving force to promote the development of China's real estate market. It can be predicted that the urbanization rate in 2019 will still be more than one percentage point higher than that in 2018, which means that there is still a large space for the development of the real estate market. At the same time, the growth rate of real estate sales will gradually slow down, and it is expected that the sales in the first tier cities will bottom and pick up in 2019. The growth rate of sales in second tier cities will also pick up slightly. For the third and fourth tier cities, the growth rate of sales is likely to slow down further, and we can not rule out falling into the range of negative growth.
The development investment is facing greater pressure, and it is expected that the first tier cities will continue the trend of steady recovery in 2019. In 2018, the market heat of second tier cities increased significantly. For the third and fourth tier cities, we expect to face a larger pressure of correction. Overall, the growth rate of real estate investment in the whole year of 2019 is still facing greater pressure of correction. In general, the real estate price index of newly-built commercial housing will keep a moderate rising trend in 2019, and the second-hand housing is difficult to have an eye-catching performance. For the rental market, the housing rental price index will show a slow growth trend in 2019.