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House price forecast in 2019: rising or falling in 2019

The house issue has always been a major event related to the people's livelihood, so what about the house price in 2019? For those who want to buy or sell a house, the most concerned must be the trend of house prices. In 2019, will house prices rise or fall? Will property market regulation policies be relaxed? How much room for the development of the real estate market? A blue book published in Beijing on the 23rd gave a forecast.

House prices are forecast to rise by 7.6% in 2019

On the 23rd, the Institute of urban development and environment, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and social sciences literature press jointly released the real estate Blue Book: China's real estate development report No. 16 (2019).

The blue book points out that in 2019, the expected goal of destocking in the housing market will be basically achieved; the implementation effect of urban policy and classified regulation will begin to show; the rising trend of housing prices will remain unchanged.

In 2018, the average sales price of commercial housing increased by 12.2%, significantly higher than expected. It is predicted that the average sales price of residential buildings in 2019 will be about 9206 yuan per square meter, and the expected price increase will be 7.6%, which is the national average.

It can be inferred that the price of some key cities will greatly exceed this expected level. The blue book shows that in 2019, the rising trend of housing prices will remain unchanged. We should strengthen multi-level forecasting, monitoring and early warning in some key cities, and take preventing prices from stimulating market fluctuations as the key target of regulation.

In recent months, the property market continued to spread. According to the house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of statistics in April, the number of cities whose new house prices rose month on month increased to 67. Some people in the industry pointed out that this is the largest number of cities whose new house prices rose month on month in the past four years.

Especially in the first tier cities, the rise of new and second-hand housing prices has expanded. In addition, the rise of new housing prices in second tier cities expanded, while the rise of second-hand housing prices fell; the rise of new housing prices in third tier cities fell, while the rise of second-hand housing prices slightly expanded.

'in 2019, the real estate market will show a trend of stable correction, the annual growth rate of commercial housing sales is likely to slow down, the rise of house prices will fall as a whole, and the land market transactions will return to rationality. "Said Wang yeqiang, executive editor and researcher of blue book.

Policy may be relaxed moderately

What changes will real estate regulation and control policies have in 2019?

According to the blue book, in 2019, the real estate policy will still adhere to the principles of "no speculation in real estate and housing" and "implementing policies according to the city", but it may be moderately relaxed under the influence of internal and external demand factors of the industry.

A screenshot of the TV series all very well.

Specifically, the first and second tier cities focus on protecting the rigid demand and improving the demand, and appropriately loosen the tight administrative control measures. Under the marginal improvement of policy, the market transaction activity will be improved, and the sales area may achieve a small growth year on year.

The third - and fourth tier cities will treat the housing reform and resettlement differently, and the areas that have completed the inventory removal will gradually withdraw or reduce the monetary resettlement. Due to the loss of strong policy backing and the overdraft of market demand, market sales are likely to fall further.

'the real estate regulation policy differentiation is the general trend. &"One city, one policy" reflects the flexibility of policy, and pays more attention to the expansion of the main responsibility and autonomy of local governments in real estate regulation. According to the blue book, it is expected that the policy adjustment will be carried out in a structured way, and all localities will give full play to the main responsibility of city governments, and implement local exploratory fine-tuning from bottom to top.

In addition, Wang yeqiang said that the general tone of moderate tightening of the prudent monetary policy has been basically determined, and it can not be a trend of "flooding". In 2019, the space for monetary policy to continue to relax gradually shrinks, and its role in stimulating the property market is relatively limited.

There is still much room for real estate development

In the future, the development of the real estate market is closely related to the construction of urbanization, because population growth and migration, improvement of living conditions, urban renewal and transformation will produce housing demand.

The blue book points out that the continuous improvement of urbanization is still the fundamental driving force for the development of China's real estate market. The new urbanization plan (2014-2020 years) proposed that by 2020, the level and quality of urbanization will steadily increase, the rate of urbanization of permanent residents will reach 60%, the registered residence population will reach 45% of urbanization rate, and the urbanization rate of registered residence population will be reduced by 2 percentage points, and the efforts to achieve one hundred million of the population of agricultural transfer and other permanent residents in towns will be reduced. settle.

In 2018, the total population of Chinese mainland was 1 billion 395 million 380 thousand, of which 831 million 370 thousand were urban residents, 17 million 900 thousand more than the end of 2017, and 59.58% of the total population of cities and towns (urbanization rate), 1.06 percentage points higher than the end of 2017. The rate of urbanization of registered residence population was 43.37%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points over the end of last year.

'in the short term, it can be predicted that in 2019, the urbanization rate will still be more than 1% higher than that in 2018, and there is still a large space for the development of the real estate market. 'the blue book shows.

Rent increases in several cities

However, not all people choose to buy houses. With the continuous improvement of the housing rental system, renting houses will become an important way to "live and have a home".

58 a previous report issued by the same city and anjuke pointed out that the increasing proportion of rental population is the general trend, and the proportion of rental population in the first tier and some new first tier cities may reach more than 40% in the future.

Renters will naturally be concerned about the rise and fall of rents. According to the blue book, rents in many of the top ten cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have risen. The reasons for the rise are closely related to the continuous inflow of population and urban renewal in recent years. At the same time, the influx of a large number of capital into the rental market is also a factor driving the rise of rents.

Among them, the monthly rent of Shenzhen in 2018 will remain above 4000 yuan, that of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Nanjing will be between 3000-4000 yuan, and that of Chengdu, Wuhan, Chongqing and Tianjin will be between 2000-3000 yuan.

From the perspective of enterprise layout, Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou are the most popular cities for long-term rental business, and 70% - 80% of typical enterprises are located in these three cities. On the whole, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Pearl River Delta are hot areas, especially the Yangtze River Delta.

What about you? Which city do you choose to live in?

Are you going to buy a house in 2019?