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Ministry of housing and urban rural development issues warning warning warning to guard against risk

Original title: the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued an early warning that buyers need to look at the housing market coldly

If investors still hold the inherent thinking of 'buy a house and go up', they will inevitably encounter the risk of 'hold up'.

According to Xinhua News Agency on May 18, in order to further implement the main responsibility of regulating the real estate market, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development (MOHURD) has given warning to Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, which have increased the price index of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in the past three months.

The reason why the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued early warning is closely related to the recent trend of house prices. According to the statistical data on the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2019 released by the National Bureau of statistics on May 16, the price of newly-built commercial housing in 67 cities rose month on month in April, compared with 65 cities in March. Among them, Qinhuangdao was the city with the largest increase, up 1.8%; Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were up 0.5%, 0.3%, 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. In addition to Qinhuangdao, Guangzhou, Kunming, Xi'an, Jinan, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Luoyang, Chongqing and Beihai also increased by more than 1%.

This is accompanied by the resurgence of various "little spring" arguments in the housing market, and the rising expectations of "a large-scale rebound in house prices" and "whether it is a good investment opportunity at present", which shows that subtle changes have taken place in the market sentiment.

In recent years, the state has established the basic trend of China's real estate market in the future, and made it clear that the first function of the house is to meet the living needs of the general public. By increasing the supply of land, promoting the "same right for rent and sale" and moderately strengthening the regulation and control of transaction links, we can regulate the development, sales, intermediary and other links, and regulate the reasonable operation of real estate prices. On April 19, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, and once again mentioned the contents of "no speculation in housing" and "implementing policies according to the city". In view of the recent situation of the real estate market, it reiterated that the overall direction of macro-control will remain unchanged, so as to avoid the recurrence of speculation in individual areas.

After nearly two years of regulation and control, the national real estate market has finally entered a stable operation situation, and the results are hard won. Therefore, under the dual effects of the current policy environment and market environment, the possibility of a sharp rise in housing prices in large and medium-sized cities is low. Recently, developers in some regions and cities have become more and more interested in land acquisition, mainly due to the resource reserve actions made by developers based on the development needs of this year and next year. For example, Suzhou recently issued the "supplementary opinions on further promoting the sustained and healthy development of the city's real estate market" in response to the sharp rise in the land premium rate, which imposed "sales restriction" on new commercial housing in the whole industrial park and some key areas of the high-tech zone, stipulating that new housing can only be transferred after obtaining the property certificate for three years; The second-hand houses in the park can only be transferred after 5 years of real estate certificate.

Predictably, with the warning of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development on hot cities, it has released a clear signal to the market: we hope that everyone will be rational about the real estate market, and the government regulation will not be relaxed. According to the real estate situation, all localities will adjust relevant policies in a timely manner. For those cities that do have signs of overheating, they may increase the regulation to reduce the false fire in the real estate market. In recent years, the central government has always stressed that "one city, one policy" is to give local governments more autonomy in real estate regulation. According to the trend of house prices and changes in market psychology, they can implement control at any time through the entrance of transaction links (such as the qualification of house buyers) and export (interest rate leverage, sales period, etc.) to ensure the healthy development of the local real estate market.

Therefore, in the face of the "xiaoyangchun" argument of the housing market, buyers still need to be rational and treat it coldly. If it is from the perspective of the rigid demand for improved living, we can intervene in the housing market from the actual needs of life, and choose the right house. But for the demand of investment type and even investment type, the price of China's real estate market is still at a high level after the continuous surge in previous years, and the potential appreciation space is very limited.

More importantly, with the advancement of China's urbanization strategy, a large number of young people are mainly flowing to the economically developed eastern first and second tier cities. In the future, the trend of regional differentiation of the real estate market will become increasingly obvious, and the 'cabbage price' similar to Hegang's real estate market may also appear. If investors still hold the inherent thinking of "buy a house and go up" and ignore the influence of deep-seated factors such as structural adjustment of the real estate market and regional differences, they will inevitably encounter the risk of "hold up".