Will the future trade war escalate? How should China deal with it? Yesterday, CCTV news has made it clear that China will never be afraid of trade war and will accompany it to the end. So how can China deal with the Sino US trade war? What measures will China take?
Treat him in his own way,
Finally, the US side will return to the negotiation table
Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center
In view of the trade disputes initiated by the United States, China obviously can not sit idly by and should take corresponding countermeasures. Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China Center for international economic exchanges, believes that we should treat people in their own way. We can consider the following aspects:
Restrictions on US soybean exports.
China is one of the largest importers of American agricultural products, and the most important agricultural product is soybean. This is due to the high subsidies given by the US government to its own farmers. Xu Hongcai said that if China restricts it and imports soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and other countries, American soybean farmers will be most directly affected.
Meanwhile, a large part of President Trump's vote came from farmers. I believe that the loss of this part of the vote is something trump does not want to see. In fact, this move is a radical solution.
The automobile industry in the United States is also the direction of policy.
According to the data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. has a trade surplus of 8.9 billion U.S. dollars in automobile trade between China and the United States, China Economic Net reported. At present, American auto companies are still lobbying trump government officials to reduce tariffs, lest the Chinese government take retaliatory measures to hinder its efforts in the world's largest auto market.
John bozzella, chief executive of GMA, said: 'the problems Mr. President wants to solve do exist, but there are better solutions. In the end, trade wars will hurt American producers and consumers. In a statement, Ford said: 'we hope that the two governments can work together to solve the problems between the two major economies. '
Xu Hongcai said that if China imposes restrictions on the US auto industry and chooses to cooperate more with Japan and European countries, then US auto companies will be affected.
Restrictions on the export of large aircraft to the United States.
In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping said when he visited the United States: "Boeing is a model of mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the United States. Boeing announced on the spot that it has signed 300 aircraft orders with China, including 250 single aisle Boeing 737 aircraft and 50 wide body jetliners, with a total value of about US $38 billion.
If the U.S. loses the "big customer" of China, Boeing will have a big impact. China can choose to import aircraft from Airbus.
Monetary means can be adopted appropriately.
Xu Hongcai analyzed that in addition to trade means, we can also take some monetary means to counter. For example, we can appropriately devalue the RMB and put pressure on the US dollar.
This is not an unconventional measure, and it can even be said to follow the trend. Xu Hongcai explained that with the increase of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the appreciation of the US dollar is justified, and the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, which has appreciated rapidly in the past year, is also reasonable.
However, it should be noted that although China is passively responding to the trade war initiated by the United States, it should also grasp the yardstick and implement it in small steps to prevent the escalation of the trade war out of control, because negotiation is the best solution to solve trade disputes. China's response measures should be reasonable, favorable and disciplined, so as to eventually bring the United States back to the negotiating table.
Implementing equal retaliation in the process of expanding opening up
On March 22, us time, the White House announced the results of the 301 investigation on China, and announced the measures to be implemented: levying 25% ad valorem tariff on the goods on the list of goods to be published and publicized for 30 days in 15 days, initiating WTO dispute settlement on the so-called discriminatory technology licensing practices in China, and implementing investment restrictions.
I believe the Chinese government will seriously deal with the disputes that the United States is ready to submit to the WTO for settlement. It is a normal way to settle trade disputes in WTO.
Since China's accession to the world trade organization, it has been prosecuted 39 times so far. China strictly abides by every ruling it has made. During the same period, the United States was sued 80 times, but the implementation of the ruling was not satisfactory.
Judging from the measures announced by the United States, the tariff measures and investment restrictions that the United States plans to implement are discriminatory and specifically targeted at China. The US side claims that its measures are based on the principles of 'fairness' and' reciprocity '. However, such discriminatory sanctions against China directly violate the basic principle of the most favored nation treatment of the WTO. First of all, MFN treatment should be given equally. In this case, if China does not retaliate against the United States on an equal footing, it will objectively form a situation in which China gives the United States one-sided MFN treatment.
However, we should be soberly aware that we should not interrupt or delay the process of opening up because of the actions of the United States. It is an established national policy to create a new pattern of comprehensive opening up. Under the current situation, the opening-up measures we have announced should be implemented as scheduled. The opening-up of the financial industry, the opening-up of investment in special purpose vehicles and new energy vehicles, and the reduction of automobile tariffs should be promoted gradually.
However, while the opening-up measures are generally implemented, the relevant opening-up treatment should not be given to the countries that discriminate against China. On the one hand, we should improve the level of opening to the outside world as a whole; on the other hand, we should implement discriminatory treatment equally; at the same time, we should draw up a retaliation list according to the other party's sanctions. On the whole, I suggest that we should implement reciprocal retaliation in the process of expanding opening up.