Original title: how much negative impact does the Sino US trade war have on the lives of Chinese people?
Last night, CCTV news made clear its position on China's trade war. It was not afraid to fight a trade war, and had to fight it when necessary. It showed China's strength and determination. What is the impact of the Sino US trade war on China?
The risk of the escalation of the Sino US trade war is increasing seriously. Once the worst situation of the United States comprehensively imposing tariffs occurs, it will have a certain impact on China's economic operation. This impact can neither be ignored nor exaggerated.
According to Washington's threat, the United States will eventually impose a 25% tariff on all Chinese exports of nearly $600 billion. In practice, this is certainly not possible. And even if some products are taxed, it doesn't mean they can't be sold to the United States. If half of the goods cannot be exported to the United States, this estimate is already very high.
China's exports to the United States account for about 16% of China's total exports. In other words, if the United States imposes a comprehensive tariff, in a very bad situation, 8% of China's exports may need to be digested through different channels. According to the analysis of economists, half of them can be digested with a high probability. In this way, 4% of China's exports will be affected. Since the share of China's economy driven by exports has been declining, this impact will certainly be very small after it is translated into GDP, which is more than 0.0%.
The above analysis is based on the full evaluation of the impact of the US tariff war on China. But can the U.S. government impose tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S. for more than a year? It's very difficult.
A 10% tariff on US $200 billion Chinese products is totally different from a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods. The United States imports more than one fifth of its total imports from China. The Chinese might as well try to think about how much negative impact our government will have on the operation of China's economy and people's lives if it imposes a 25% tariff on more than one fifth of its imports?
The price of imported products will rise, and many enterprises and commercial sellers need to change their suppliers urgently. This will be an annoying and chaotic process. Most of the electronic goods, sports equipment, toys, pet products, all kinds of bicycles and children's cars in the U.S. market will increase their prices on the basis of last year's price increase. The federal government has more tariff revenue, but the people have to pay more. Think about how many complaints there will be.
China will not fail to respond. First of all, American farmers will not see the hope of resuming their exports to China. No matter how hard it is to export automobiles and ordinary machinery and equipment produced in the United States to China, the rapidly growing U.S. exports of service trade to China will also be in difficulties. The U.S. energy industry revitalization plan will lose the impetus to export to China.
At present, both parties in the United States support a strong fight against China, but the new general election will soon begin. At that time, it will be everyone's responsibility to be patriotic. However, the responsibility for disrupting the U.S. economy and irritating consumers will all be shifted to the Republican government. In recent days, the American soybean farmers association and the industry committee have strongly urged the government to reach an agreement with China and take part in the re-election campaign with a comprehensive trade war with China, which will be a huge political risk for the Republican Party.
China is a mountain that the US' extreme pressure 'policy can't bring down. Until an agreement is reached with China, Washington's plan for strong negotiations with big economies such as Europe and Japan will be almost impossible to implement. In addition, the North Korea issue has also reached a deadlock, the situation in Iran is extremely tense, and the offensive diplomacy that the current US government is proud of will encounter obstacles everywhere, which will become a laughing stock in the election campaign.
The comprehensive trade war between China and the United States is irrational, and the U.S. government is its initiator. Washington does not want to do business with China, but thinks that it can arbitrarily determine the rules of U.S. - China trade, and promises to the public that China will make greater concessions and achieve a more favorable trade mode for the United States through the extreme trade war. If the trade war continues until the U.S. general election in 2020, the United States will pay nothing but the price, and the financial market will be in serious turmoil, it will indeed be the biggest political joke in economic history.
China has the strong leadership of the party and the huge institutional advantage of maintaining unity in the face of difficulties. We are fully capable of digesting and controlling the losses brought about by the reduction of exports to the United States to the maximum extent. If the US government forgets itself and refuses to deal with Sino US trade disputes realistically, we will have to send the political jokes mentioned above to the present US government. The Chinese are confident that they can do this.
We don't want to fight a trade war with the United States. We hope to reach an agreement as soon as possible. But Washington shouldn't force us to fight. We have to get to the situation of "who is afraid of who". China is really not the China that Washington's current policy circle thinks. So far, the Chinese government has not spoken harshly to the US side, but we are the only country to fight a trade war with the us to the level of US $200 billion or US $300 billion. If the US side wants to see the endurance of this great oriental country, please help yourself.