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What's going on with Boeing 737's global grounding? Why Boeing 737 series grounded

What's the matter with Boeing 737's global grounding? Boeing 737max's global grounding has entered its seventh week, and its market value has evaporated more than $30 billion, but the way to go around is still a puzzle. On the one hand, Boeing is eager to go around. After the announcement that the software update has been completed, the official investigation and audit time given by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is 90 days (from April 29). On the other hand, the panic of Boeing 737max from consumers to pilots has not abated. On the contrary, it has been exposed by the media along with various omissions in the manufacturing process of Boeing, which is growing day by day.

In addition, on April 24 local time, Boeing will release its first quarter financial report, after some shareholders of Boeing filed a lawsuit against Boeing for "suspected securities fraud".

How can Boeing promise its shareholders not to make mistakes in the future and regain public confidence

Henrich Greve, a professor at INSEAD, told reporters that what Boeing is doing is the best they can do: they have finished updating their software, are working with airlines, and are improving their documentation so that pilots can know exactly what will happen.

'the Boeing 737max needs to be able to operate for at least a few years without accidents and dangers. He judged, 'so now the only thing that can help Boeing is time. '

It's not easy to restore external confidence

Earlier, Boeing announced that it had carried out flight test after upgrading the software of the mobility enhancement system (MCAS), which focused on the accident, and completed the 127th test on April 17, indicating that it was preparing to advance the certification process.

Huang Jun, a professor at the school of Aeronautical Science and engineering of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, said in an interview: "in terms of the number of aircraft delivered by Boeing, if we patch and upgrade the software of each aircraft, I think the problem can be solved within six months at most. '

However, it is easy to upgrade the software, but it is by no means easy for the public to restore their confidence in Boeing and even FAA. American Airlines and Southwest Airlines pilots who attended the FAA meeting recently told the outside world that there are still many problems to be discussed before Boeing 737max go around.

"Given what has happened, the work [Boeing] is actually not enough," Griff told reporters. '

"We had to give up confidence in the plane," said Dennis tajer, a spokesman for the pilots' Union, which represents American pilots. "We took off our watch and put the calendar in the drawer. 'it may take some time to rebuild confidence in the aircraft, he added.

Not only do pilots dare not fly, but consumers dare not ride. Recently, the US media even revealed that retired employees of Boeing's factories in South Carolina also dare not fly their own planes, and often find debris near the lines under the cockpit.

Richard Aboulafia, vice president of tealgroup, a US aerospace and defense industry market analyst, said: 'I don't think the most time-consuming thing so far is to upgrade the software itself, but to prove to regulators that it's OK. '

At the same time, there are many objections to the go around requirement of 737max in the world. Just a day after the FAA's pilots Committee suggested that the United States should not conduct simulator training on the max8, Canadian transport minister Marc Garneau said that no matter how long it takes to ground, pilots should be trained on the max8.

The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) also said in an e-mail reply: "we will carefully review any sustainable repair proposal and its implementation, and take any necessary measures to ensure passenger safety before allowing 737max to go around in Europe. '

Generally speaking, the leading position of FAA in certification is recognized by aviation safety organizations of other countries in the world. However, after EASA's absence from the regulators' meeting held by FAA at the end of March, galno quickly and firmly expressed his opposition to the recommendations of the FAA sub committee. The focus of the debate is whether it is necessary to conduct simulator training for pilots of 737max.

Shen Haijun, a professor at the school of Aeronautics, astronautics and mechanics of Tongji University, explained to the reporter that compared with its competitor Airbus, Boeing is more inclined to "people-oriented" and relies more on the pilot's manual control than the automatic operation of computers and machines. Therefore, the MCAs system on the 737max model has become a more obvious exception, but Boeing has not mentioned it in the flight manual or provided it Extra training.

However, Huang Jun told reporters that adding automation devices is not a mistake in itself. He said: 'people are the most important factor to ensure the safety of the aircraft. The application of automation equipment and technology in the aircraft is to reduce the workload of the pilot, maintain the energy to fly the aircraft in the whole process, reduce the possibility of errors and ensure the safety of the aircraft. So automation is not the cause of the accident, but it should be more comprehensive. '

"When AI software is updated, its behavior may violate human expectations & hellip; & hellip;, so if you add a new button, you have to teach people how to use it. '

Will Airbus make a profit

Since the air crash in Ethiopia on March 10, Boeing's market value has evaporated $34 billion, and its share price has dropped to $380 from the highest value of $440 on March 1.

As the go around certification can not be solved in a short time, American Airlines announced the third time to postpone the grounding period, extending the date to August 19. Since American Airlines announced the announcement of extending the grounding earlier this week, Southwest Airlines and united airlines have joined the queue, extending the grounding of 737max to August 5 and early July respectively.

At present, FAA has announced that it will form a global team of experts from nine countries and regions and three U.S. agencies to jointly rent cars, and begin to certify the flight control system of Boeing 737max from April 29. The certification time is 90 days, which means that the certification process can be completed as early as the end of July and the beginning of August.

In addition to extending the grounded period, some airlines choose to cancel the undelivered orders directly. Garuda, Indonesia's largest airline, has informed Boeing that it wants to cancel 49 Boeing 737max8 aircraft worth US $4.9 billion. A spokesman for Eagle Airlines said that this was due to "customers' concern that the air crash would damage its business". According to foreign media reports, Jet Airways of India has also proposed to cancel orders for 75 Boeing 737max.

Previously, there were more than 4600 orders for Boeing 737max aircraft. The market had predicted that this type of aircraft would bring about one-third of Boeing's revenue in the next five years, and almost all the new 737s to be delivered in 2019 were Max type aircraft. Just before the air Egypt crash, Boeing also planned to increase the production of 737max aircraft from 52 per month to 57 per month. However, under heavy pressure, Boeing announced earlier this month that it would reduce the production speed of Max models from 52 to 42 per month.

In the report, the Oxford Institute of economics pointed out that the Boeing 737max production reduction may last for at least six months, which will lead to a reduction of more than 5% in the total US aircraft production this year, but will gradually recover from 2020 and 2021.

In reality, we have to raise the question that Boeing and Airbus are always facing fierce competition for aircraft orders, and Boeing is afraid that it will face serious challenges in single channel aircraft orders in 2019. Airlines are still waiting to see how Boeing can solve the safety problem of 737max, and the winner will be in the world's largest professional air show, Paris air show 2019 We have come to the conclusion.

It is reported that the Paris air show 2019 will be held from June 17 to 23, but according to FAA's current schedule, Boeing 737max may not be able to go around at that time.

Griff told reporters that he believes many airlines regret the current (Boeing) orders. But it's different from cancelling an order: cancelling an order actually costs a lot.

In addition, this means that they need similar aircraft from other aspects, which means that these airlines can only choose Airbus, because Airbus a320neo is the only aircraft with similar fuel efficiency. Griff told reporters that Boeing Max and a320neo are actually very popular aircraft, so they usually have a long waiting list.

So the first consequence of cancellation is to lose money: usually you have to pay to cancel. At the same time, you have to wait longer to get the same fuel-efficient plane, Griff told reporters. 'so regret is one thing, cancellation is another. '

However, Griff also pointed out that there are other options, and the airlines may also be considering these alternatives. For example, they may buy less fuel-efficient aircraft, but it will consume more fuel.

In addition, 'they can maintain the order but postpone the delivery date, so that they can wait for other airlines to fly with 737max to see if it is safe enough and whether to accept delivery. '

Griff told reporters: 'because of the waiting list, there should be no cost to delay delivery. '

The above is the reason why Boeing 737 is grounded all over the world. Thank you for your reading.