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China's population situation in the next 30 years

Nowadays, with the rapid development of society, people have no big obsession about giving birth to boys and girls. Boys and girls are the best gifts for parents. But even so, in the demographic gender survey, the number of men is still much more than that of women. Let's take a look.

In the future, the population of the mainland will present five prominent characteristics

In 2018, the number of newborns hit a 40-year low, and in terms of gender structure, there are 31.64 million more males than females. In this regard, Li Xunlei, vice chairman of the forum of chief economists of China, predicted that in the future, the population of the mainland will show five prominent characteristics, namely, "the total population will show negative growth in the fastest 10 years", "the population will enter deep aging in two years, and it will approach Japan in 2050", "the marriage rate will continue to decline, and the number of" singles "will increase", etc.

Economist Li Xunlei said in an article in "21 finance and economics" on the 20th that the judgment of the future population situation of the mainland is more based on the prediction of the United Nations, but the structure and details of the prediction of the United Nations are less considered, and the disclosure of the prediction results is relatively limited.

Prediction of population situation in China in the next 30 years

He went on to say that "we have used the classic Leslie age and gender prediction model to predict the population situation of China in the next 30 years." the future population will show five prominent characteristics, and these changes will have a profound impact on many areas of the economy.

Trend 1: after the fastest 10 years, the total population will show negative growth

The proportion of population in the world will gradually decline, and the population of India is expected to surpass that of China in 2024.

Trend 2: the number of young and middle-aged people is decreasing rapidly, reaching over 10 million every year at the peak

In the next five years, the number of working age population will decrease by more than 3 million annually, and the number will decrease by more than 10 million annually from 2028 to 2039.

Trend three, the impact of the second child has passed, newborn babies will fall below 13 million

It is estimated that the number of new born people will drop to about 14 million in 2019, with a high probability of falling below 13 million in five years.

Trend four or two years later, it will enter into deep aging, approaching Japan in 2050

Or it will reach Japan's current level in 2037, and it will be close to Japan's aging level in 2050.

Trend 5: the marriage rate continues to decline, and the number of "singles" increases

In 2015, there were 40 million more unmarried men over 15 years old than unmarried women. The generation with the most serious sex imbalance at birth has not entered the marriage market in large quantities, and the marriage rate will further decline in the future.

Population statistics in 2018. (photo / 21st century economic report)

Li Xunlei pointed out that challenges and opportunities coexist, and it is urgent to take measures. "The change of long-term population trend will continue to put pressure on China's economic growth, which may bring some economic and social problems, which need us to make policy preparations and reflect. 」

However, behind the challenges, he said, there will also be some structural opportunities. For example, aging will increase the demand for pension, medical and other related industries, and the "Bachelor wave" will stimulate the demand for "single economy".