What is the economic center of the earth? "Two years ago, I inferred that Shenzhen would surpass Silicon Valley in the United States in ten years. Although China's economy is not good at present, there are still eight years left. I don't think this inference needs to be changed in terms of time. On April 20, at the summit forum of "Dawan district and the future of Shenzhen", Zhang Wuchang, an internationally renowned economist, mentioned it in his speech.
On the same day, Zhang Wu, known as "the first person to analyze China's economic system", delivered a speech entitled "is Shenzhen a phenomenon?" in Cantonese. In his nearly one hour speech, he reviewed the development of Shenzhen in the past 40 years of reform and opening up, Shenzhen's future development, Dongguan's important role in Shenzhen's development, zero tariff and other related issues.
At the end of the speech, Zhang Wuchang asked himself: 'is Shenzhen a phenomenon? It should be. If Qianhai can successfully push the RMB out of the international market, no matter which method it uses, it must be. '
Shenzhen will become the economic center of the whole earth
In nearly an hour's speech, white haired Zhang Wuchang made no secret of his confidence in the future development of Shenzhen: "Shenzhen will become the economic center of the whole earth. '
In his speech, Zhang Wuchang recalled a meeting held in Shenzhen two years ago with some old American colleagues and students on his doctoral dissertation "theory of tenant farmers". During this period, he led his friends for a walk by the sea and predicted the future of Shenzhen: in ten years, Shenzhen will surpass Silicon Valley in the United States.
'I said at that time: remember what I said. This is the land you are standing on at that moment. It will become the economic center of the whole earth one day. Exaggeration? Of course. Will it come to light? This kind of inference is rarely wrong. Thirty years ago, I inferred that the economy of Shanghai would surpass that of Hong Kong; today, I infer that Shenzhen would surpass that of Shanghai. There are many difficulties, but in time, I should be right. '
Zhang Wuchang said that it is not difficult to make such an inference. The center of international economic development has always depended on a bay area. Of course, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao are also a bay area, but the word "deep" is not in it. There is no doubt that Shenzhen, whose name cannot be entered into Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, will be the leading city in the bay area. Today, the economy of Shenzhen, which is still developing, has surpassed not only Hong Kong, but also Taiwan as a whole.
The existence of Dongguan is decisive to Shenzhen
Zhang Wuchang believes that an important reason for Shenzhen's rapid development is its geographical advantages. Another important factor is Dongguan next door.
Zhang Wuchang said that Dongguan is not an ordinary industrial zone, unlike Wenzhou, which specializes in small commodities, Suzhou Industrial Park, or Yangjiang, which specializes in one or two industries. Dongguan (to some extent, including Huizhou, which is also next door to Shenzhen) is a city where countless kinds of products can be made, which is good, fast and cheap.
'I know many friends who set up factories in Dongguan. They are very familiar with each other. They make toys, molds, tableware and exhibition stands. They work hard, but I know from them that in Dongguan, the convenience of mutual distribution between factories and between factories and cottages is the only thing I have ever seen in my life. When it comes to the diversification of the industry and the convenience of mutual distribution of work, there should be no doubt that Dongguan ranks first in the world. "Zhang Wuchang said.
Zhang Wuchang said that he would definitely infer that the reason why Shenzhen will surpass Silicon Valley is that there is no industrial zone like Dongguan in Silicon Valley. 'not only today, but never. Today, the minimum wage for professional employees in a factory in Dongguan is about one-third of that in the west coast of the United States. The minimum market wage in Dongguan is much higher than that in Jiangxi, Henan and other places I know. This is due to the difference of geographical location. '
Zero tariff, zero procedure is zero
On the issue of tariff, Zhang Wuchang suggested starting with Britain. He thought that zero tariff between China and Britain was good for Britain.
"Britain has always been close to zero tariff. China and Britain have zero tariff on each other. Of course, Britain will laugh with joy. What's more, the implementation of zero tariff between China and Britain will solve all the problems in their current predicament of brexit. This is timely help. Moreover, if Beijing told the advanced countries in Europe that they would all work together for zero tariff, and at the same time asked them to draw zero tariff from Britain, they would certainly accept it. Zhang Wuchang thinks.
Zhang Wuchang stressed that China's import tariff is zero, and zero procedures are zero. Import and export procedures should learn from Hong Kong and be as simple as possible.
'China's zero tariff will shock the world. Although China is not a rich country, its market is surprisingly large. If we don't count the high-tech products with high value and just look at the daily necessities, China's market accounts for about half of the world. With such advantages, of course, we have the right to speak. Zhang Wuchang said.
Zhang Wuchang recognized that if China and the advanced countries in the West propose zero tariffs on each other, the problem of Sino US trade friction will be easily solved. 'because there are not many famous consumer goods like French perfume or Rolex watches. They have airplanes, agricultural products, advanced medical drugs, and university education much better than China. Let the United States sell knowledge to earn money for the Chinese people, isn't it a pleasure for everyone? "
Lifting the manifold is the future of Qianhai
When talking about the future development of Qianhai, Zhang Wuchang said: "the establishment of Qianhai is to build an international financial center and push RMB out of the international market. It's not so easy to push RMB out of the international market, because the United States must oppose any currency to replace the US dollar in the international market. '
Zhang Wuchang believes that, however, the introduction of RMB into the international market will certainly replace the US dollar to some extent. In this way, there will be a conflict of interest between China and the United States. "You sell peanuts in the market, and I sell peanuts in the same market. How can there be no conflict of interests?"
If we want to push RMB out of the international market, it is necessary to lift all foreign exchange controls. We should also note that the United States does not have any foreign exchange reserves because the international community accepts us dollars and they do not need to have foreign exchange reserves. Not long ago, I read about 62% of the US dollar reserves in the world and only about 2% of the RMB. Such a big separation is not conducive to the development of China's foreign trade. Zhang Wuchang said that as early as 1988, Friedman mentioned that China would lift all foreign exchange controls and let the RMB introduce international currency,
Zhang Wuchang analyzed the economic logic of pushing RMB out of the international RMB Market: to push RMB out of the international RMB market, it is necessary to lift the foreign exchange control in an all-round way; at the initial stage of lifting the foreign exchange control, the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will be lost; foreigners will accept RMB, and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will rise; One way to adjust the import and export of RMB and the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank is to adjust the exchange rate of RMB against foreign currencies.
Because of the above reasons, RMB is far from the general acceptability of the US dollar, so RMB should be the next anchor before it is launched internationally. 'after years of thinking about the important topic of RMB anchoring, I finally came up with a safe way to use the price index of a basket of goods as an anchor, which costs nearly zero. "Zhang Wuchang said.