At present, there are as many as 16 provinces where pension can not be paid. If financial subsidies are not considered, the current balance of national pension will be negative this year. Even if financial subsidies are included, the current balance will be negative in 2028, and the accumulated balance will be exhausted in 2035. How is pension 2035 going to run out? Why will pension 2035 run out?
On April 10, the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the actuarial report on China's pension from 2019 to 2050, which shows that the system maintenance rate will double in the next 30 years, and the current balance will be in deficit and continue to expand in 2028.
This is the second pension actuarial report issued by the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of social sciences. Compared with last year's China pension actuarial report 2018-2022, this year's report extends the forecast period from five years to 30 years.
First of all, let's look at the key points of the report sorted out for you by Mr. times
1. In the next 30 years, the system support rate will double. In short, in 2019, nearly two payers will support one retiree, while in 2050, almost one payer will need to support one retiree.
2. The current balance will be in deficit in 2028 and will continue to expand. In the case of 'large caliber' (including financial subsidies), the current balance will be negative for the first time (- 118.13 billion yuan) in 2028, and eventually fall to -11.28 trillion yuan in 2050. Regardless of financial subsidies, the current balance of national pension is negative this year.
3. The cumulative balance will peak in 2027 and run out in 2035.
4. Personal accounts continue to grow, but the proportion of GDP will tend to converge.
5. The current balance is seriously polarized. If we do not consider the central adjustment system, Guangdong, which ranks first in the current balance in 2019, will be as high as 200.07 billion yuan, which is almost the sum of the current balance of the provinces ranking second to tenth. The central adjustment system only delays the polarization of current balance to a certain extent.
6. There are as many as 16 provinces that can't make up for their expenditures in the current period.
7. The polarization trend of the number of months the fund can pay is still obvious.
8. In 2019, the number of months that pension funds can pay in five provinces is lower than the warning line. By 2028, the number will increase to 13.
In this regard, the report puts forward three suggestions
1. Taking the opportunity of fee reduction to expand individual account of endowment insurance
2. As soon as possible to realize the national overall planning of endowment insurance
3. Reasonable design and close cooperation of various parameters