Every time high-speed free traffic, highway traffic will increase significantly, followed by accidents. So which roads are most likely to be congested on Qingming Festival? Let's find out. From 0:00 on April 5 to 24:00 on April 7, the toll free policy for minibuses with 7 seats or less will continue to be implemented on expressways across the country.
1、 Holiday weather is generally conducive to road traffic, and the traffic volume of the national road network is expected to be basically the same as last year
Forecast of traffic volume and trend of national highway network during the Qingming Festival in 2019
According to the forecast of China Meteorological Administration, during the Qingming Festival in 2019, the weather in most parts of the country will be mainly sunny, the temperature will be close to the same period of the year or on the high side, and the precipitation will be less. The holiday weather is generally conducive to road transportation. Public travel mainly includes tourism, visiting relatives, ancestor worship and tomb sweeping. Due to the relatively short holiday time, long-distance travel tends to be by plane and high-speed rail, while road travel mainly focuses on short-term travel, and the proportion of self driving by passenger car is relatively high. From the perspective of traffic composition, the change of the proportion of passenger car flow to the total traffic volume shows a trend of the highest on the first day of the holiday and gradually decreasing in the next two days.
During the Qingming Festival in 2017, the traffic volume of national trunk roads increased by 5% year-on-year, and decreased by 3% in 2018. Considering the weather, the growth of the number of motor vehicles, the expansion of road network and other factors, it is estimated that during the Qingming Festival in 2019, the traffic volume of national trunk roads is basically the same as that of last year, but significantly higher than that of working days.
2、 Time variation analysis of traffic flow and congestion degree of national highway network
（1） The tidal characteristics of traffic flow in the national highway network are obvious.
Forecast of congestion trend of Qingming national highway network in 2019
During the holidays, the traffic flow of the national highway network and the national highway network is expected to be significantly higher than that of the working day. The hourly traffic flow is generally tidal, with obvious morning and evening peaks. The peak traffic flow occurs at 9-11 am and 15-17 pm every day. It is estimated that the traffic flow of the national highway network will reach the peak from 9:00 to 11:00 on April 5 (the day of Qingming Festival, also the first day of the holiday), and there will be a holiday travel peak; a small return peak will be formed from 17:00 to 19:00 on April 7 (the last day of the holiday), and it will return to the daily level on April 8 (the first working day after the holiday).
（2） The change of congestion degree of national expressway network is characterized by "two high and one slow".
As shown in Figure 3, during the Qingming holiday, the congestion trend of expressway network presents the characteristics of "two high and one slow". Affected by the traditional activities such as ancestor worship and tomb sweeping during the Qingming Festival, the travel demand on the first day of the holiday (April 5) is significantly higher than that on weekdays. It is estimated that the crowding degree will reach the peak from 9:00 to 11:00 on that day, which is about five times of that on weekdays. On the second day of the holiday, the crowding degree will be alleviated; On the last day of the holiday (April 7), there was a return peak from 17:00 to 19:00, and the crowding level was about four times that of the normal day. The first working day after the holiday returned to the normal level.
（3） The freight flow of the national highway network has declined.
Compared with the historical data, combined with the weather, holiday characteristics and other comprehensive factors, it is estimated that the freight flow of the national highway network will decrease during the Qingming holiday. On April 6 (the second day of the holiday) and April 7 (the last day of the holiday), the traffic decreased significantly, and gradually returned to the normal level after the holiday.
3、 Spatial variation analysis of traffic flow and congestion degree of national highway network
During the Qingming Festival, the areas with large traffic flow and serious congestion are mainly concentrated in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu Chongqing and other places, and the sections with large traffic flow are mainly concentrated in some sections of the highways leading to the mausoleum and popular scenic spots, such as the expressways of entering and leaving the city in big cities, the expressways of urban airports. In the stage of departure and return, it is expected that there will be different degrees of congestion in the main channel sections of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing and other big cities, the inbound and outbound sections of the surrounding expressway network, and some bottleneck sections with low traffic capacity.
（1） Regional distribution of large flow.
As shown in the figure, during the Qingming holiday, the regional distribution of traffic flow in the national highway network is quite different. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Chengdu Chongqing regions with large population, developed road network and high economic level are still the regions with large traffic flow, mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan, Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and other provinces (cities).
（2） High speed channel with large flow.
There is a high degree of crowding in the cemetery, popular scenic spots and the surrounding areas of big cities. As shown in the figure, it is estimated that the sections with large traffic flow and prone to congestion during the Qingming Festival mainly include: G5 Beijing Kunming Expressway Xi'an section, G15 Shenhai Expressway Nantong section, Ningbo section and Shenzhen section, g15w Changtai Expressway Suzhou section, g1501 Shanghai Ring Expressway Yanggao North Road interchange to Gaodong toll station section, g2501 Hangzhou Ring Expressway Dajing hub to nanzhuangdou hub section, g5011 Wuhe Expressway Hefei section, and g5011 Wuhan Hefei section Shanghai Kunming Expressway Hangzhou section, Shaoxing section and Guiyang section, G72 QUANNAN Expressway Nanning section, G75 Lanhai Expressway Chongqing section, g78 Shankun Expressway Kunming section, G93 Chengdu Chongqing Ring Expressway Xiyong interchange to Qingmuguan tunnel section, g9411 guanfo Expressway Guangzhou section and Dongguan section, S32 Jingping Expressway Beijing section, S28 Qiyang Expressway Yangzhou section, etc.
（3） Busy toll stations and service areas.
Some toll stations and service areas in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Chengdu Chongqing regions are under great pressure of operation and service guarantee. As shown in the figure, during the Qingming Festival, it is estimated that: Guangzhou Guangqing toll station, Guangyuan toll station, Benghu toll station, Wuxi toll station, Suzhou toll station, Beijing Xihongmen Nanqiao toll station, Zhangjiawan toll station, Shanghai G60 Xinqiao toll station, G15 beiqinggong road toll station, Chengdu Ring Expressway Chengguan toll station and other traffic operation pressure is large, which is prone to congestion In order to block and slow down traffic, it is necessary to ensure the operation in advance and focus on monitoring.
During the Qingming holiday, the busy service areas in China are expected to include: Chizhou Jiuhuashan service area, Wuxi Meicun service area, Zhongshan public service area, Suzhou baiyanghu service area, Zhaoqing Langgang service area, Foshan Huayong service area, Changzhou fangmaoshan service area, Shanghai Fengjing service area, Beijing Tugou service area, Nantong Sutong Bridge service area Service area, etc.
（4） The road network around popular scenic spots and parks is expected to be congested or slow for a short time.
Qingming holiday, the weather is good, suitable for self driving travel, popular scenic spots and parks and other surrounding roads, traffic pressure is expected to rise significantly compared with normal, need to do a good job in advance of security and monitoring work.
As shown in the figure, popular self driving scenic spots mainly include: Hangzhou West Lake scenic spot, Jiaxing Xitang ancient town scenic spot, Wuzhen scenic spot, Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Fenghuang ancient city scenic spot, Bijie China Baili Azalea scenic spot, Luoyang Longmen Grottoes scenic spot, Huangshan Huangshan scenic spot, Wuxi Taihu Yuantouzhu scenic spot, Jinzhong Pingyao ancient city, Jinhua Hengdian shadow As (26.630, 1.12, 4.39%) city, etc.
The most popular cemeteries are: Shanghai Binhai ancient garden, Fushou garden, Songhe garden, huatingxi garden, Chang'an cemetery, Hangzhou Banshan cemetery, Anxian cemetery, Wuhan yushushan cemetery, Guangzhou Xintang cemetery, Foshan Xiqiao Mountain Fuyin garden, etc.
4、 During the Qingming holiday, the rain, snow and fog in some areas may have adverse effects on some road sections
According to the forecast of China Meteorological Administration, during the Qingming holiday, the weather in most parts of the country is mainly sunny, while the weather in northern China is windy and cool, which is generally conducive to road traffic.
There are light rain or sleet in Northern Xinjiang, eastern Tibet, central and western Gansu, western Qinghai, northeastern Inner Mongolia and Northern Northeast China; there are light to moderate rain in southern and Eastern Jiangnan and southern China, and heavy rain is expected to affect some sections of Yunnan Guizhou border and Eastern Guangxi; In addition, some road sections in southern Jiangsu, southern Zhejiang, Southern Anhui, southeastern Fujian, northern Jiangxi, eastern Hunan, Northern Guizhou, most of Chongqing, Eastern Sichuan and central Yunnan are expected to be affected by heavy fog; the rain, snow and fog weather in the above areas may adversely affect the traffic of some road sections.
G7 Beijing Xinjiang Expressway Dabancheng Urumqi section
G10 Suiman Expressway in Shangzhi, Heilongjiang Province
G1011 hatong Expressway in Binxian County, Heilongjiang Province and Jiamusi County, Heilongjiang Province
G11 Hegang Jiamusi section of Heilongjiang Hegang Dalian Expressway
G1111 HeHa Expressway in Suihua, Heilongjiang Province
G30 Lianyungang huoguan Expressway Gulang Wuwei Zhangye Jiuquan Jiayuguan section
The main sections affected by heavy rain are as follows:
G4 Beijing Hong Kong Macao Expressway in Ruyuan, Guangdong Province
207 National Highway in Hezhou, Guangxi
National Highway 324, Jiuzhou, Guangxi to Anlong, Guizhou
Main sections affected by fog:
G2 Beijing Shanghai Expressway Jiangsu Gaoyou Jiangdu section
G4 Beijing Hong Kong Macao Expressway Hubei Chibi Hunan Linxiang Yueyang Kaihui section, Changsha Hunan Hengyang Leiyang section
Sichuan Guangyuan Deyang section of G5 Beijing Kunming Expressway
G15 Shenhai expressway: Jiangsu Dongtai Rugao Nantong section, Zhejiang Taizhou Wenzhou Pingyang section, Fuzhou section, Fujian Putian Quanzhou Xiamen section
G25 Changshen Expressway (10.870, 0.16, 1.49%) in Nanjing, Yixing in Jiangsu and Lishui in Zhejiang
G40 Shanghai Shaanxi Expressway in Nantong, Jiangsu Province and Jiuhua Taixing Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province
Yangzhou Zhenjiang Runyang section of g4011 Yangli Expressway in Jiangsu Province
G42 Shanghai Chengdu expressway section in Shanghai, Jiangsu Wuxi Changzhou Danyang section, Chongqing Wanzhou Fenshui Liangping section, Sichuan Linshui Guang'an Nanchong Section
G4211 Nanjing to MAANSHAN section of Nanjing Wuhu Expressway