What's going on when Goldman Sachs raised Maotai's share price? How much did Maotai's share price go up? Many partners still don't know. Let's take a look with Xiaobian.
How does Goldman Sachs raise the stock price of Maotai
Guizhou Maotai (600519) is worthy of the title of A-share 'King'. On the morning of March 29, Goldman Sachs, an American century old investment bank, announced that it would raise the target price of Guizhou Maotai to 1016 yuan. CITIC Securities, a leading domestic securities firm, said in the latest research report that it would give Guizhou Maotai a target price of 1000 yuan.
Stimulated by the fact that the annual report data released yesterday exceeded market expectations and that the securities companies were optimistic, Guizhou Maotai opened high in the morning on March 29, reaching a record high of 861.20 yuan per share. By midday, Guizhou Maotai closed up 6.72% at 861 yuan per share. There is still 16% space to the target price of 1000 yuan.
Driven by Guizhou Maotai, the liquor sector also ushered in a collective rise, Wuliangye (000858) also set a new record, Yanghe shares (002304) rose, Luzhou Laojiao (000568), yingjiagong liquor (603198), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Kouzijiao (603589), Jiugui Liquor (000799), Laobaigan liquor (600559) and other stocks also followed the rise.
Under the capital chase, is Guizhou Maotai far from becoming the first thousand yuan stock of a shares?
Analysts have looked at the high stock price target price to four figures
Although the stock price of Guizhou Maotai is constantly reaching new heights, in the eyes of securities analysts, the stock price of Guizhou Maotai is' not the highest, only higher '.
After the release of the annual report of Guizhou Maotai, on March 29, a number of securities analysts issued comments and raised the target price one after another.
According to the research report released by CITIC Securities, Guizhou Maotai's performance in 2018 exceeded expectations, and 2019 is the year of marketing failure, which will help the company achieve revenue growth of more than 14%. As the leader of the liquor industry, the company has built a solid competitive barrier with brand as the core, and has the logic of volume and price promotion. It will continue to benefit from the upgrading of the industry and the improvement of concentration. In the long run, it has the space to double. Raise the company's EPS forecast for 2019-2020, and give a target price of 1000 yuan.
In addition, Huachuang securities analysts gave Guizhou Maotai a target price of 1000 yuan, Goldman Sachs analysts gave 1016 yuan, and Huatai Securities Analysts gave a reasonable price range of 951.44 yuan to 1019.40 yuan. For the first time, Guizhou Maotai's stock price was called up to a record four digit.
According to the incomplete statistics of China Securities Journal, more than 30 securities companies have issued research reports on Guizhou Maotai so far this year, giving Guizhou Maotai a 'buy' or 'increase' rating. A number of brokerage analysts raised the target share price of Guizhou Moutai in its research report.
Make 100 million a day
This is where analysts come from
Analysts of Guizhou Maotai shout out 1000 yuan stock price, confidence from the company's performance growth. In 2018, the company achieved an operating revenue of 73.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.49%; an operating profit of 51.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.85%; and a net profit of 35.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.00%. In 2018, the earnings per share was 28.02 yuan. During the reporting period, the net cash flow from operating activities was 41.385 billion yuan, an increase of 86.82% over the same period of last year.
Previously, the company had issued an announcement on production and operation, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of about 34 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2018. According to the annual report data, the performance of Guizhou Maotai once again exceeded expectations. Analysts of CITIC Securities pointed out that the fourth quarter performance of Guizhou Maotai exceeded market expectations mainly because the company increased the investment of non-standard products to achieve a steady rise in volume and price. At the end of 2018, the advance payment was 13.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4 billion yuan over the previous quarter, mainly due to the active payment of dealers in the Spring Festival peak season.
At the annual working meeting of Maotai Group in 2019 held at the beginning of this year, Li Baofang, Secretary of the Party committee, chairman and general manager of Maotai Group, clearly assigned the task that Maotai Group should ensure that its operating revenue will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2019. As for the core product of Maotai liquor, he believes that the characteristics of tight supply and demand and product shortage of Maotai liquor will not be improved or changed in the short term. The fundamentals of the market in 2019 will still be stable and will still be in the rising period. It will continue to maintain the momentum of stable, orderly and healthy development and will not be "downplayed".
According to the previous announcement, the sales plan of Maotai liquor in 2019 is 31000 tons, which is an increase of 3000 tons compared with the sales plan in 2018, with a year-on-year growth of about 11%, exceeding the market expectation. On the issue of production capacity, Li Baofang said at the Boao Forum on March 28 that according to the current calculation, the production capacity of Maotai still has 6600 tons to expand, which can be almost completed by the end of this year. In the future, expansion will not be considered for quite a long time. Environmental, resource and other factors can not support the expansion of Maotai's production capacity. The gap between supply and demand of Maotai liquor may always exist or even expand. Li Baofang predicts that the current supply of Maotai can only meet one third of the demand.
Industrial Securities pointed out that Maotai is extremely scarce in the long run, and it will still be in tight balance between supply and demand in the future. In the long run, the increase of the proportion of direct marketing and direct supply will have limited impact on the market price of Maotai. At present, the internal environment of Maotai is becoming stable, and the construction and promotion of direct marketing channels will be implemented in an orderly manner. It is suggested that the delivery data, price and inventory level of Maotai should be viewed from a long-term perspective.
Guotai Junan analysts believe that the stable operation of Guizhou Maotai will continue to benefit from the upgrading of consumption and the leading effect, with both quantity and price promotion logic, certainty and growth. Maotai stands at the commanding height of the industry, with both volume and price promotion logic, weakening performance fluctuation, and is expected to obtain the leading valuation premium. Analysts of CICC said that the long-term growth logic of Maotai is still clear, and the mass high-end consumption is the main support point. They believe that the main growth points of Maotai in the next three years are direct price increase and moderate volume expansion. It is expected that the growth rate of the company's revenue can maintain 15% - 20% in the next three years.
Holding a huge amount of cash
Changes in interest income cause controversy
Aiming at the annual report of Guizhou Maotai in 2017, zhongzhengjun once wrote an article "100 billion cash deposit in the bank to buy wealth management of liquor enterprises", pointing out that Guizhou Maotai has more than 80 billion yuan of monetary capital on its account, but the cash yield is not high. The interest income of Guizhou Maotai with more than 80 billion yuan of monetary capital in 2017 is 60.6874 million yuan. According to the 2018 annual report, the interest income from bank deposits received by Guizhou Maotai in 2018 dropped again, to 14.4108 million yuan, compared with 60.6874 million yuan in 2017, only a quarter of the previous year.
The financial expenses in the financial statements, in addition to exchange earnings, are mainly related to the interest and expenses of deposits and loans. If the financial expense is negative, it indicates that the company has abundant cash flow. The larger the negative, the stronger the ability of maintaining and increasing the value of cash. However, from the perspective of financial expenses, the efficiency of cash management of Guizhou Maotai is really puzzling. However, Guizhou Maotai clearly stated in its annual report that "the financial expenses in the current period were - 3521200 yuan, and in the previous period were - 55722300 yuan. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to the fact that most of the company's funds were not directly deposited in commercial banks, but were centralized managed by Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary of the company To make the capital run better and maximize the income under the premise of controllable risk. '
An investment bank financial personage once pointed out to Zhongzheng Jun that for Guizhou Maotai, in addition to paying attention to the interest income in financial expenses, it should also consider the factors of its financial company. In the 2013 annual report, the interest income of Guizhou Maotai's financial expenses was as high as 430 million yuan, which began to decrease significantly since then. In 2012, Guizhou Maotai invested 408 million yuan with related parties to establish a financial company, in order to improve the efficiency of the company's capital use and obtain certain investment income. The above-mentioned people pointed out to the reporter that since 2013, Guizhou Maotai began to have interest income in its operating income. Considering the factors of the financial company, Guizhou Maotai's cash income, in addition to the interest income in its financial expenses, should also consider the interest income in its operating income, which is more reasonable.
In terms of this part of income, the current period was 3.560 billion yuan, up from 2.844 billion yuan in the previous period. From this point of view, Guizhou Maotai is a step closer to the goal of 'better capital operation and maximum income'.
Generous dividend into a good heart fund
According to the 2018 annual report, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 145.39 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares based on the total share capital of 1.256 billion shares at the end of 2018, with a total profit of 18.264 billion yuan, accounting for 51.88% of the total profit of the year.
According to the dividend plan announced by Maotai, holding one hand (100 shares) of Guizhou Maotai stock can get a cash dividend of about 1450 yuan. You can buy a bottle of 53 degree ordinary Feitian Maotai. At present, the official guidance price of a bottle of Pufei Maotai is 1499 yuan, and the actual retail price is about 2000 yuan.
Guizhou Maotai also disclosed in its 2018 annual report that since its listing in 2001, the company's total accumulated cash dividends have reached 57.468 billion yuan, accounting for 43.33% of the total net profit, which is a dividend for the development of the company. In the past three years, the dividend situation of Guizhou Maotai is as follows, which can be said to be one of the most generous enterprises in the A-share market
As a big white horse stock in the consumer goods industry, Guizhou Maotai has always been a favorite of institutional investors for its steady performance growth and long-term generous dividends. From the perspective of the top ten shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Co., Ltd., Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. and China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. are still among the top ten shareholders; the national social security fund 101 portfolio withdraws from the top ten shareholders, and Shenzhen Ruifeng Huibang Asset Management Co., Ltd. - Ruifeng Huibang No. 3 private securities investment fund becomes the new member of the top ten shareholders.
Beishang capital has always been partial to Guizhou Maotai. Data show that at the beginning of this year, Beishang capital held 99.9538 million shares in Guizhou Maotai. As of March 27, Beishang capital's shareholding in Guizhou Maotai has reached 119.4131 million shares, and its shareholding proportion in Guizhou Maotai has increased from 7.95% to 9.50%.