China's aging is accelerating, and more and more provinces have crossed the aging standard line. In 2018, the population aged 65 and above in Sichuan exceeded 14% for the first time, reaching 14.17%, according to the Sichuan Provincial Population Statistics Bulletin released by the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of statistics on the 19th. After sorting out the statistical communiques of various provinces in 2018, first finance found that six provinces across the country crossed the 14% line in 2018 and entered the deep aging stage. China's aging problem has become increasingly prominent and worrying.
Six provinces enter into deep aging
According to the international standard, when the proportion of the population aged 65 or above in a country or region exceeds 7%, it means that it will enter the aging society; when it reaches 14%, it means that it will enter the deep aging society; when it exceeds 20%, it means that it will enter the super aging society.
According to Sichuan Province's 2018 demographic bulletin, in 2018, there were 11.819 million permanent residents aged 65 and above in Sichuan, accounting for 14.17% of the total population, 2.23 percentage points higher than that of the whole country, 0.23 percentage points higher than that of 2017, 3.22 percentage points higher than that of 2010, with an average annual increase of 0.4 percentage points.
Sichuan is a province with a large population. Its population once ranked first in the country for a long time. Moreover, its economy is still in the developing stage. Why is it aging rapidly and getting old before getting rich?
Chen Zhixiang, deputy director of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of statistics, first, the fertility rate and natural population growth rate have been lower than the national average for a long time; second, a large number of young and middle-aged people go out to work; third, the medical and health level has improved, and the life expectancy of the elderly population has increased; fourth, Sichuan's livable environment has attracted retirees from Tibet, Xinjiang and other western provinces to settle in Sichuan.
Chen Zhi believes that young and middle-aged migrant workers are the biggest reason for the rapid aging of Sichuan, and a large number of left behind elderly people at home have a great impact on the age structure of Sichuan population.
Guo Xiaoming, a researcher at the Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China first finance and economics that Sichuan's aging is closely related to the export of labor services, which is reflected in the fact that rural aging is higher than urban aging. At present, the normal family population gradient is 4-2-1 structure, but a large number of young workers go out to work in Sichuan, resulting in the separation of the working population in the family population gradient and the emergence of a large number of left behind elderly.
According to the analysis of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of statistics, from 2010 to 2015, the proportion of elderly people aged 60, 65 and above in rural areas of Sichuan Province increased by 4.61 and 2.85 percentage points respectively, and the increase rate was 2.04 and 1.34 percentage points faster than that in urban areas respectively. From this, we can see that the proportion of rural elderly population in Sichuan is not only higher than that in cities and towns, but also the growth rate is fast, and the situation of rural population aging is more severe than that in cities and towns.
Chen Zhi also said that the total population of Sichuan Province aged 65 and above is second only to Shandong and fourth only to Liaoning, Shanghai and Shandong.
According to the statistical communiques issued by China first finance and economics, Jiangsu and Chongqing also crossed the line of deep aging in 2018, and their population aged 65 and above accounted for 14.03% and 14.1% respectively.
Ding Jinhong, Dean of the school of social development of East China Normal University, told China first finance and economics that there are two main reasons for the rapid aging of these provinces. One is the low fertility rate since the implementation of family planning, and the other is the large outflow of young and strong population. If the two factors are combined, the aging will become more advanced.
This is most obvious in Liaoning. According to the statistical bulletin of Liaoning Province in 2018, according to the 1 & permil; population sampling survey, the permanent resident population at the end of the year was 43.593 million. The natural growth rate of population is - 1.00 & permil;. There were 10.446 million people aged 60 or above, accounting for 23.96%. Among them, there are 6.613 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.17%. This is the highest in the country.
On the contrary, a large number of labor force rush to the coastal areas, which makes the population structure of the coastal areas younger. Take Guangdong as an example. In 2018, Guangdong's labor force population accounted for the highest proportion in China. At the end of 2018, the population aged 65 and above accounted for 8.62% of the total population.
Is the demographic dividend over?
The acceleration of population aging will have an impact on economic and social development, especially in the northeast and central and western regions. Chen Zhi also said frankly that in 2018, Sichuan Province has entered the stage of deep aging, which brings challenges to economic development and social security.
Ding Jinhong said that for these regions, the foundation of social security system is relatively weak and is still in the accumulation stage, and the acceleration of aging will make these provinces face challenges. In addition, he also said that behind the six provinces, there are still many provinces with a small gap in the level of aging. This means that in the next few years, more provinces will step into deep aging.
Facing the severe situation, Liaoning Province issued the population development plan of Liaoning Province (2016-2030) last year, which took the lead in exploring more incentive policies for families with two children, and implementing a gradual delayed retirement policy.
The aging of the population also brings a problem, that is, whether China's demographic dividend will end? According to the 2018 statistical bulletin on national economic and social development released by the National Bureau of statistics in February, China's population aged 60 and above has exceeded the population aged 0-15 for the first time.
However, Ding Jinhong said that although the proportion of the elderly population is growing, the proportion of the working population is still relatively high. China's demographic dividend is only shrinking and has not yet reached the window closing stage.
According to Chen Zhi's analysis of Sichuan's population data, both domestic and international statistics, Sichuan's total working age population is still more than 50 million, its total employment population is still more than 48 million, its labor resources are rich, and its demographic dividend still exists in a certain period of time.
He said that in terms of China's recognized working age (domestic statistical caliber), in 2018, there were 52.01 million people aged 15-59 in Sichuan Province, accounting for 62.35% of the total population, an increase of 330000 people over 2017, with an increase of 0.1 percentage point. According to the internationally recognized working age (international statistical caliber), the population of Sichuan Province aged 15-64 was 57.81 million in 2018, accounting for 69.31% of the total population, an increase of 190 000 over 2017.
According to Chen Zhi, "demographic dividend" refers to the fact that a country's working age population accounts for a large proportion of the total population and its dependency ratio is relatively low, which creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development. 'total dependency ratio 'is the ratio of the number of non working age population to the number of working age population in the population. It indicates how many non working age population should be borne by every 100 working age population. When the total dependency ratio is less than or equal to 50%, it is called the 'demographic dividend period'.
From 2016 to 2018, the total dependency ratio of Sichuan was 43.06%, 44.08% and 44.29%, less than 50%, indicating that Sichuan is still in the demographic dividend period. With the accelerating process of population aging in Sichuan, the traditional quantitative demographic dividend will be reduced.
However, the continuous improvement of the employment environment, the impending delay of the retirement age of workers, a large number of migrant workers and entrepreneurs returning home for entrepreneurship and employment, and the great development of education have improved the quality of the population. All these make the new structural dividends that Sichuan's high-quality economic development depends on still exist for a long time.