On January 3, 2019, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and the social sciences literature press jointly released the "green paper on population and labor: report No.19 on China's population and labor problems". In this report, will China's population grow negatively in 2019? What's the future like eight years from now? Let's have a look.
The reason for this prediction is the scientific assessment based on the current changes and growth of domestic population
The number of women giving birth to babies continues to decrease
Since the founding of new China, the number of Chinese women giving birth to children has been in a downward trend. From 1949 to 1969, the average fertility rate was about 6. Since the implementation of family planning in 1973, this number has continued to decline. By the end of 1980, it had dropped to 2.31. By 1996, the birth rate of women had dropped below 2, becoming 1.8. According to the data analysis in 2018, the average number of women giving birth to children was only about 1.6.
The number of new students is decreasing year by year
According to the data disclosed by experts from the National Research Center for flow of people and development, the number of new students in 2018 is about 15-16 million, while the number in 2017 is 17.23 million, that is, in a year, the number of new students will decrease by at least 1 million.
Authoritative forecast of UN data
According to the United Nations Population Program, China's population will reach a peak of 1.442 billion by 2029. After entering the era of negative growth, the population will decline at an alarming rate. From 2030 to 2050, the population will decrease by 78 million, and by 2065, the population will shrink to the size of 1996, to 1.248 billion, that is, 200 million in 35 years. This data is only from the United Nations It's a conservative estimate. If the negative population growth comes ahead of time, China's population will drop to the 1990 level in 2065, which is only 1.172 billion.
From the above data analysis, the trend of negative growth of China's population is obvious. Some experts say that the time point of negative growth may be earlier than 2027. For China, with its outstanding demographic dividend, this is probably the biggest problem to be faced in the 21st century.
The future in eight years:
The burden of providing for the aged is increasing
The birth rate has decreased and the dependency ratio has increased, especially for the elderly. With China's entering the era of negative population growth, the middle-aged people will have to bear more responsibilities. In addition to raising children, they also need to bear the problem of providing for the elderly. During this period, the first batch of family planning children are about 50 years old, and their parents are generally between 70 and 80 years old, which is the time when they need support, that is, the three generations will face a heavy burden of providing for the aged.
Economic growth slows down
Due to the increase of dependency ratio, many people with working ability have to work for the aged or support the elderly at home, which will lead to a more serious shortage of labor for economic development, which is also the main reason for the slowdown of economic speed in the future.
Coping strategies:
Reduce the burden of two child families and encourage childbearing
At present, about 20% of the families who are fertile but refuse to have a second child are those who give up giving birth mainly because of nursing pressure, parenting cost and lack of energy. In order to improve the fertility rate, the key is to issue more favorable fertility policy in the later period of national policy.
The state bears part of the pension expenses
In 2019, in the new birth subsidy policy, the state will give some economic support to the elderly of many one-child families, reduce the burden of supporting their children, and try to ensure that the social labor force is sufficient.
Develop science and technology, let artificial intelligence replace part of labor force
Let science and technology help Chinese people overcome the crisis brought about by negative population growth, which is the most direct and effective strategy proposed by the experts of the Academy of social sciences. Through the innovation of science and technology, let artificial intelligence gradually penetrate into all fields, reduce the employment pressure, and develop professional intelligent aging service platform, reduce the country's pension pressure, and liberate more labor force.
In recent years, the rise of artificial intelligence technology in China makes the world look at it with new eyes. Especially in dealing with the aging service problem, many professional aging service platforms and supporting products using artificial intelligence to provide intelligent services have emerged. The successful construction of these national intelligent service systems is inseparable from the support of these policies. In order to promote the development of artificial intelligence, in recent years, the state has introduced a number of preferential policies for the development of science and technology enterprises.
With the launch of these platforms and products, they began to make use of their technical advantages to provide a full range of medical care, health care, life and entertainment services for many elderly people who need to provide for the aged. While reducing the burden of their children's pension, they can also better improve the quality of life of the elderly in their later years. At the same time, the efficient and intelligent service also greatly reduces the employment pressure of pension institutions.