In the structure of pension expenditure, in addition to the first pillar pension system sponsored by the government, the expenditure of the second pillar held by enterprises and the third pillar participated by individuals should be increased, so as to truly form a diversified pattern of retirement income sources. So what does the future depend on? What changes will China have in the future? Let's take a look at it.
Recently, the article "how to maintain growth momentum in the long run from international experience" published in the people's Daily has been transferred on the Internet. The article points out that China has entered the upper middle income stage, and there is no great suspense for China to cross the "middle income trap" and enter the ranks of high-income countries in six or seven years. While encouraging China's development prospects, we are also very concerned about what new 'sense of gain' will be brought to people by economic growth and social development. For example, after entering the ranks of high-income countries, what changes will the pension security present? What will happen to the pension model? On the above issues, our reporter interviewed Zheng Bingwen, the author of the article and director of the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of social sciences.
Will pension level be higher?
New theory of Liberation: according to the United Nations forecast, China's elderly population aged 60 and above will reach a peak around 2040, with 431 million people, accounting for about one third of the total population. This number even exceeds the current population of the United States. When China enters the ranks of high-income countries, will the pension level be higher?
Zheng Bingwen: from the middle-income stage to the high-income stage, the per capita pension level usually increases correspondingly. There are rules behind this. Not only the pension level will be improved correspondingly, but also the welfare level in all aspects will be improved accordingly. However, the evaluation of a country's pension should not only focus on the number of pension, but also on whether the pension income structure has changed, whether the pension system is healthy and sustainable, and whether the pension service is sound.
Taking the pension income structure as an example, even if the pension level is improved, if the pension security fund source is single, it is still unstable. A good pension security structure should be diversified, which is the meaning of the so-called multi-level and multi pillar. That is, in the pension expenditure structure, except for the first pillar pension system sponsored by the government, the expenditure of the second pillar held by enterprises and the third pillar participated by individuals should be increased, so as to truly form a diversified pattern of retirement income sources. In this way, the depth and density of pension security will be improved, and the stability and sustainability of pension security will be stronger. In addition, China has not established a pension system from fiscal transfer payment, which is widely known as' zero pillar '. At the same time, China's local government has established the old age subsidy, but it has not formed a nationwide basic unified system network. This also needs to be considered after entering the high-income stage. It should be noted that high-income countries are not equal to developed countries. After China entered the ranks of high-income countries in 2024, it can only be regarded as "small local tyrants". At this time, we must not be complacent. We must also strengthen the design of the pension system, the optimization of the pension structure, and the improvement of pension services. What is more profound is to promote the reform of the pension security system.
Which model will become the mainstream?
New theory of Liberation: under the new situation, which pension mode will become the mainstream, home-based pension and institutional pension? Will more people accept the more controversial old-age housing?
Zheng Bingwen: "pension by housing" refers to the source of funds. It is a kind of pension financial product provided by the market. In other words, if the financial market can provide housing reverse mortgage, the elderly will have an additional product choice. The reason is closely related to the legacy culture of western families. Chinese people pay more attention to intergenerational bequests, so they are not very receptive to housing endowment. But if we change it, it is not reverse mortgage housing, but rental housing. In fact, from the source of funds, it is also a kind of pension with housing. Isn't this in line with the idea that we can both bequeath and earn money by housing? Therefore, the prospect of housing for the elderly should not be "beaten to death".
In addition, we should not over interpret the old-age housing. For example, there are some misunderstandings about the role of the government in it. The purpose of the government's appearance is to maintain the market order, protect the rights and interests of consumers, and strengthen market supervision. This is because in the complex reverse mortgage market, a single consumer is often the weak side. Therefore, it is of positive significance for the government to come forward. At present, there are mainly two pension modes in the world, namely home-based pension and institutional pension. From the perspective of international comparison, home-based care is the main mode in the world. Even in the United States and Europe, the proportion of institutional pension is only a single digit. After entering the stage of high income, the proportion of institutional pension in China will increase, but it will still be home-based. In addition, we also have a relatively special pension model, namely community pension. My understanding is that traditional Chinese culture pays attention to neighborhood friendship. We also have Street grass-roots organizations. In the process of aging, communities should play a corresponding role. For example, the functions of day care and door-to-door services. Generally speaking, in a long period of time, home-based care will still be a mainstream pension model in China. This requires that, in the policy design, more attention should be paid to the supply of home-based care services to improve the supply capacity of elderly care services.
Efficiency first or equity first?
New theory of Liberation: some people hold that the efficiency of China's old-age security is not high, and the amount of money paid is devalued in the end; some people also think that the money paid by people who work now are used to pay the pension of retirees, which is not fair. Although these views may not be accurate, they more or less affect people's enthusiasm to pay pension. Looking forward to the future, in the strategic direction and system design, should we pay more attention to efficiency or fairness?
Zheng Bingwen: fairness and efficiency is a basic problem in the old-age security system, and it is very important to handle this relationship well. Generally speaking, efficiency and fairness are not complementary. If we have to find a breakthrough in both, I think it should be efficiency. For example, it's time to adjust the pension contribution base again. Beijing has just announced the pension payment base for 2016, which is 7086 yuan per month. However, some people complain that the annual increase in the base is too heavy, and even a few people will try their best to pay less. At this time of the year, the payment base of the housing provident fund will also be announced, but not the base, but the upper limit of payment, so as to prevent each unit from paying more than the upper limit. Why do you give preference to one another for pension and housing provident fund? This shows that the incentive of housing provident fund is better. So what is good motivation? That is to say, pay more and pay more. Then there may be a question of fairness. Is it fair to pay more, or to rob the rich and help the poor? Some people may suggest that paying less for more reflects social equity. But the real problem is that it sounds good to pay less and pay more, but it is difficult to operate in the actual system operation. For example, how can the poor 'own' the rich's contributions more accurately? This is hardly done in the current system. Even if it can, the result may be that it will affect the enthusiasm of high-income earners to pay, and even these people will gradually evade their fees over time.
Can reform be a relief?
New theory of Liberation: when China enters the ranks of high-income countries, what are the directions and priorities of pension reform?
Zheng Bingwen: after entering the stage of high income, there are two aspects of pension reform that can not be abandoned
First, we should always attach importance to the financial sustainability of pension insurance and solve the problem of money. As the first pillar of social basic endowment insurance, we should continue to follow the reform direction of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, that is, adhere to the basic endowment insurance system of combining social overall planning and personal account, improve the individual account system, improve the incentive mechanism for paying more, ensure the rights and interests of the insured, adhere to actuarial balance, and realize national overall planning. These key points of reform determine whether China's endowment insurance system will be healthy in the future. We should develop a multi-level old-age insurance system, strive to develop the second pillar of enterprise annuity, issue preferential tax policies for the third pillar as soon as possible, and establish the third pillar. It is easier said than done to establish a multi-level endowment insurance system. It is only 10 years since the first formal operation of the second pillar in China. However, only 23 million people have been covered in the whole country, less than 10% of the basic endowment insurance. The third pillar, such as the deferred retirement type commercial endowment insurance, has been calling for its launch since 2007, and has been calling for nearly 10 years. However, no one comes down after listening to the sound of stairs. The reasons are all related to the system design: the threshold of the system design of enterprise annuity is too high and it is not easy to popularize; the design of the third pillar has not reached a consensus completely, which delays the reform process. We should choose the system of pension mode. From the perspective of pension model, there are mainly European model and American model. In the choice of pension system mode, we should take the strategy for our own use. Generally speaking, China is more suitable for the US model, but we can learn from the advantages of the European model in the system design. This involves top-level design, so it's time to do top-level design.
The second is to establish and improve the old-age service security system to solve the problem of whether they can buy services after they have money. The core is to deal with the relationship between the government and the market
Let the government play a good role. This means that the government wants to cover the vulnerable groups. At the same time, the existing public nursing homes should be reformed. Otherwise, the private capital will not be able to enter, because it will be unequal and treated differently. We should give full play to the role of the market. At present, in the field of pension services, the market gap is still very large. For example, home-based care needs to find a nanny or a nanny with medical functions, but the reality is that it is difficult to find a suitable nanny. Therefore, we must play the role of the market. As long as private capital flows into the market fairly, it can play a good role. What needs to be specially pointed out here is that we should take tax as an important lever, design corresponding tax policies, and encourage the development of corresponding markets. We should give full play to the strength of social organizations. The pension system in developed countries is generally better, and the common reason behind it is that social organizations can play a better role. This role cannot be replaced by the government and the market. After China becomes a high-income country in the future, this problem cannot be bypassed. It is the key factor to establish a healthy pension service system.
What other supporting facilities are needed?
New theory of Liberation: what preparations should be made for China's pension security? What are the supporting facilities?
Zheng Bingwen: pension is not only related to people's livelihood, but also related to national competitiveness and development potential. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term development, we should strengthen the top-level design of pension system.
First, establish cooperation channels between departments. At present, China's financial transfer payment is managed by the Ministry of civil affairs, and social insurance is managed by the Ministry of human resources and social security. But for national welfare, the two are actually a whole. One of the key issues in the choice of pension security mode is to determine the proportion of payment type and non payment type. Insurance belongs to payment type, and financial transfer payment belongs to non payment type. If the two are fragmented,