Buying a house is something that almost everyone has to experience. The former is to settle down and the latter is to invest. If you want to buy a house, you should be most concerned about the house price. Will the house price drop in 2019? What's the trend of house price in 2019?
According to the data of house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2018 released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, the prices of second-hand houses in Xiamen, Shanghai and other cities fell all year round. Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen four first tier cities from October, second-hand housing prices at the same time into the decline channel.
Especially in Xiamen, according to the data provided by Xiamen Zhongyuan Research Center, from January 7 to January 13, 2019, 87 first-hand residential buildings were sold in Xiamen, down 15.5% on a month on month basis, 12 on a daily basis, with a weekly area of 12800 ㎡, down 3.0% on a month on month basis. More news said that the house price of Vanke in Xiamen fell by 50%, and some real estate enterprises reduced by 60%.
Objectively speaking, at present, there are still a few or even a few cities where house prices are falling more. Xiamen is one of the cities where house prices are falling the most. Even so, the house price drops by 50% and 60%, which is still only an individual real estate in an individual city. As far as the overall house price is concerned, it is difficult to think that such a phenomenon will occur. To appear such a phenomenon, now the real estate market is definitely a mess, speculation tenants cry, developers capital chain fracture, local risk is frequent.
So, through the changes in house prices in 2018 and the relatively loose policies in a few places at the end of the year, what's the view on the house prices in 2019, especially the house prices? Is the house prices going up or down in 2019? What's the extent of the decline?
My point of view is that the basic style of house prices in 2019 is - stable, the basic trend is - more falls, less rises, and the basic goal is - an average price drop of 3-5%.
Some people may say that such a goal is not too optimistic. Judging from the current house prices, it is still rising in general, and some places still maintain a relatively high rate of rise. The prediction of housing prices by relevant agencies in 2019 is also rising, and the rise rate is equivalent to GDP. Why should I say that housing prices will fall? The main reason is that: in terms of the overall economic environment, especially the external environment, there will be great uncertainty and many problems. Therefore, it will have a negative impact on house prices in 2019. From a small point of view, developers as a whole are in the tight pattern of the capital chain, and even some have appeared the risk of capital chain fracture. In order to maintain the stability of the market and keep the enterprise from risk outbreak due to the rupture of the capital chain, we must increase the strength of capital return and speed up the speed of capital return. Then, we can only choose to reduce the price. In this way, it will also lead to the decline of house prices.
From the point of view of residents' attitude towards purchase of houses, after several years of regulation and control, with the house prices gradually becoming stable, residents' psychology is gradually recovering, and the past kind of psychology of buying up and not buying down is becoming less and less. Young people, in particular, have moved from having to own their own houses in the past to having a house to live in. Then, the impact on market demand has also produced a strong expectation.
From the perspective of real estate speculators' psychology, many real estate speculators face the downturn of the market, especially the continuous non relaxation of policies, which have no morale, and the number of real estate speculators who want to throw their houses is increasing. After the Spring Festival, some speculators are expected to start selling houses. Especially through the leverage of real estate speculators, in the case of profit, it has reduced the profit expectation, so it will also drive the price down.