The second round of price adjustment window of domestic refined oil in 2019 will open at 24:00 today (28th), which is the last price adjustment of domestic refined oil before the Spring Festival. A number of institutions expect oil prices to rise again before the Spring Festival 2019 due to factors such as OPEC production reduction! Will it return to the 'age of 7'?
Oil price may rise again before Spring Festival
At 24:00 on January 14, the first round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil in 2019 was opened, with an increase of 105 yuan per ton for gasoline and 105 yuan per ton for diesel. According to the principle of "ten working days and one adjustment", a second round of price adjustment will be carried out for domestic refined oil products at 24:00 on January 28.
Liu Xia, an oil product analyst at jinlianchuang, said that in the current pricing cycle, international crude oil futures showed a high volatility trend. OPEC cut production by 751000 barrels per day in December to 31.6 million barrels, the biggest monthly decline in nearly two years.
In addition, the number of active oil drilling in the United States recorded a decline for three consecutive weeks, the largest weekly decline since February 2016, and international oil prices were supported. Affected by this, the crude oil change rate continues to extend to a positive range.
According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day on January 25, the average price of reference crude oil was 58.78 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of 7.71%. The corresponding price of gasoline and diesel was increased by 245 yuan / ton, and the price adjustment window was January 28.
Zhongyu information also believes that domestic oil prices for finished products will rise at 24:00 on the 28th. Zhongyu information predicts that the retail price of refined oil will be increased by 250 yuan / ton at 24:00 on the 28th.
If the prediction of the above institutions is realized, the price of domestic refined oil will be raised again since 2019, achieving "two consecutive rises" before the Spring Festival.
Will it return to the 'age of 7'?
Talking about the trend of oil price after the Spring Festival, Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong information, thinks that, as the favorable factors of the international crude oil market continue to prevail, it is expected that the overall international oil price will remain optimistic after the Spring Festival, and there is still room for small increase.
Tong Lixia, deputy researcher of research and Prediction Center of important commodities of Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that from the current level of international oil prices, there is still room for growth in 2019. As far as supply and demand are concerned, although the gap between supply and demand will gradually narrow, there is no strong factor supporting the sharp rise of oil prices for the time being this year.
On the supply and demand factors of international oil prices, jinlianchuang analysis said that, on the supply side, although OPEC production reduction eased some of the pressure brought by the oversupply, the U.S. API crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased significantly, while the product oil inventory also maintained an increase, which weighed on the confidence of crude oil bulls;
On the demand side, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year and next, which rekindled concerns about the demand side of crude oil, leading to a weak upward trend in oil prices.