with the improvement of living standards, the aging problem is becoming more and more serious. How serious is the aging problem in China predicted in 2019? Netizens call the future of aging more serious than Japan! What are the reasons behind the rapid aging trend? Let's take a look with Xiaobian.
The first is the trend and causes of population aging;
Second, some consequences of the aging population;
The third is what measures have been taken to deal with the aging of the population and what measures should be taken in the future.
Let's first look at the trend of aging.
The important index to measure the aging trend is the proportion of the elderly. Here is an indicator of the percentage of the population aged 65 and over in the total population. The above picture shows the change trend of the percentage of the whole aged population from 1953 to 2015. From less than 5% at the beginning to more than 10% in 2015.
But the speed of aging change is not stable with time, it is faster and faster.
Over the 60 years from 1953 to 2015, this percentage point only increased by 0.1 percentage point per year on average. Over time, from 1953 to 1995, the average annual growth rate was 0.04 percentage points, and from 1996 to 2005, the average annual growth rate was 0.14 percentage points, which accelerated a lot; from 2006 to 2015, the average annual growth rate was 0.29 percentage points, which increased faster and faster.
It's not only the proportion of the elderly in the total population is growing faster and faster, it's just the proportion, the whole population base is also rising, the proportion is also increasing, the number of the elderly is actually accelerating. If there is no negative population growth in the next 10 or 20 years, the proportion will continue to grow and the number of the elderly will continue to rise.
From the perspective of China's own history, this speed is getting faster and faster. If we make an international comparison, we will find that China's aging rate is also relatively fast. The proportion of people aged 65 and over has a world ranking. The data comes from the world bank's statistics of more than 200 countries and economies around the world. China ranked around 75th in 1960 and 60th in 2015. China's aging population is faster than the average trend, so the ranking is going up. The proportion of people aged 65 and over rose from 5% to 10%.
How long did it take for several major aging countries? Now the most serious problem of aging is Japan, which has spent 35 years from 5% to 10%. Second place is Italy, which has spent at least 100 years from 5% to 10%, which is very long. What about China? It only took 30 years, five years shorter than Japan. Our aging is also very rapid from an international perspective.
Think about the trend of aging in the future. There is a universal indicator in the world. If the proportion of people aged 65 and above reaches 7%, it is an aging society; if it reaches 14%, it is an aged society; if it reaches 21%, it is a hyper aged society. Since 2000, China has accounted for more than 7% of the population aged 65 and over, when it entered an aging society. But if the speed of aging in the future continues the average speed of the past 10 years, China will enter the aging society in 2027 after 10 years, and enter the super aging society in 2047 after 20 years. It's a very simple assumption that the pace of aging in the future continues at the pace of the past decade. If it is faster than the speed of the previous decade, the time to reach an aging society and a super aging society may be further advanced. This is the basic outlook for the future.
What are the reasons behind the rapid aging trend?
There are two reasons:
The first is that fewer people are born;
The second is that people's age and life expectancy have increased and their mortality has decreased.
One is low birth rate and the other is low mortality rate. If in a society with high birth rate and high mortality rate, the age structure of the whole population should take on a positive pyramid shape. At the top of the pyramid is the proportion of older people, and at the bottom is the proportion of young people. The people at the top of the high mortality rate die very quickly, the proportion will not be very large, it will be relatively small and sharp; and the birth rate is very high, the bottom teenagers will continue to join the total population, the chassis is very large, which is the case of the right pyramid. If the birth rate is low and the mortality rate is low, the top tip will disappear more and more slowly, so the top tip will become fatter and fatter. Fewer people are born below, more and more people are filling in slowly, the tower base becomes narrower and narrower, and the pyramid will change. The proportion of the elderly is large.
The chart above shows the trend of birth rate and mortality in the past decades. The bar graph inside still shows the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and above, refer to the coordinate axis on the right. The first solid dot line represents the birth rate, with an average of 1000 births. The second hollow dot line represents the death rate, with an average of 1000 deaths.
The picture of birth rate is not very complete. Before the early 1970s, except for three years of economic difficulties, the birth rate had been in a relatively high position. It fell very fast in 73 years, and then fell further in the 1980s, and was in a very low position in 2000. The mortality rate dropped earlier than the birth rate, and it basically dropped to a relatively low position in the middle and late 1970s, about 7 / 1000. In the last ten years, the death rate has gone up again. The main reason is that the proportion of the elderly in every 1000 people is increasing. The elderly are particularly vulnerable to death, which will drive the overall social mortality rate up. This increase in mortality is not a sign of social retrogression, but a sign of the changing trend of social aging.
With a rapid decline and very low birth rate and mortality, the two data together promote the rapid change trend of population aging in China. Both are causes, birth rate and mortality.
From the data point of view, the decline of birth rate and maintaining a low position are more important factors in the aging population. The figure above shows the proportion of the whole population in three parts each year. The black part is the elderly aged 65 and above, the gray part is the labor force, mainly aged 15-64, and the bottom white part is the youth aged 0-14. It can be seen that the proportion of the elderly is higher and higher, and the black pillars are longer and longer, but in the long process, which part of the population is intercepted? At the beginning, the gray pillars are also increasing, although the growth rate is not as fast as the elderly. This is mainly reflected in the rapid decline of the relative proportion of 0-14-year-olds. The growth of the above two parts comes from the decrease of the proportion of the following youth. The main factor for the decrease is that there are fewer people born, and the speed of supplement is much slower than that of supplement.
After 2010, the proportion of teenagers has basically stabilized, compared with the proportion of the elderly has increased, which is mainly from the middle part of the population. Why does this happen? The speed of becoming an intermediate group at the age of 14 is much slower than that of becoming an old person at the age of 64. Why do 14-year-olds become slow in the middle? 14-year-olds are born when family planning is strict, and the base number is less. When they turn 15-year-old into labor force, the transformation is slow. In the final analysis, it is because of the decline in early fertility. This is a basic situation.
The figure above shows the population pyramid in three years, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Each pyramid is composed of two pyramids, one with a border and the other without a border but with a gray background. The border is the actual population structure, and the gray one is the pyramid assuming that the current parameters have changed. If the birth rate is raised, assuming that each person has one more child on average, how will the population pyramid change? It depends on the gray color. We found that even if we increased the birth rate, because our mortality rate is still relatively low. We see that the proportion and width of the elderly are getting wider and wider, and the base is also gradually narrowing down, even though it is still the shape of a pyramid in 2010. However, the actual population pyramid with frame has been severely corroded since 1990, which is not quite like the pyramid. By 2000 and 2010, the pyramid had become a zero shape.
The comparison of these three figures shows that the fertility rate largely determines the transformation and change process of population age structure.
These are the trends and causes of population aging.
What are the consequences of population aging
The first is the burden of providing for the aged;
The second health burden;
The third is the impact of labor market;
The fourth is economic development.
These four perspectives are closely combined.
First of all, look at the elderly care. The dependency ratio of the elderly is the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and above to the population aged 15-64. In 1953, the figure was 7.4, with an average of 100 workers supporting 7.4 elderly people. This proportion quickly went up, doubled from 1953 to 2015, and changed from 7 to 14.
Not only the pressure of people, but also the pressure of money. The figure above shows the proportion of basic endowment insurance fund expenditure of urban employees in GDP. This is not a complete response to the situation, but at least the trend can be seen. Since 2005, the proportion of pension fund expenditure to GDP has been increasing.
The overall burden of providing for the aged has become heavier, and the regional and regional imbalance has also intensified. For example, beishangguang is the best place for economic development, with low death rate and low fertility rate. If there is no population migration, beishangguang should be the most aging area, while other areas are not so serious. It is precisely because the trend of population migration to the aging of these areas has been alleviated, not so serious.
This logic is shown in the figure above. Each point in it represents every province in China, and the abscissa represents the proportion of the population with household registration above 65 years old. If there is no proportion of population migration, the vertical axis is the immigration rate of foreign population, which is a positive correlation. If the aging population of a local household registration is very high, at the same time, this place may also have a large number of immigrants. The reason may be that this place has a high aging population, but its economic development is good, so it attracts people. The abscissa on the right is the immigration rate, and the ordinate is the aging rate of resident population. When there are more people moving in, the resident aging population will come down. For cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, population mobility can alleviate the aging trend.
If there is an inflow, there will be an outflow, so the trend of aging in the outflow area is worsening. The color of each province is marked in the figure above. The lighter the color, the milder the aging degree changes with time, less intense, and even the aging degree will decline. The darker the color is, the aging rate of the permanent population in this area is rising rapidly with the change of time. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and coastal areas are relatively light colors, that is to say, their aging rate does not increase rapidly with time. But look at the northeast, West and southwest provinces, the main areas of population outflow, are very dark in color, and the aging trend of their permanent population changes dramatically. This is the imbalance of population flow to the aging of the region, resulting in such a trend.
In addition to the imbalance of population, there is also the imbalance of pension expenditure between provinces. The pressure of the province's endowment with the net outflow of population