These days, the cold air suddenly came, people living in the north have been rummaging for autumn pants. At the same time, there are more and more rumors about "cold winter" on the Internet. Many netizens say that 2018 is cold winter? The National Climate Center gave the right answer.
Is 2018 a cold winter?
Climate prediction is a professional and scientific business, which needs a large number of climate observation data as the basis, high-resolution numerical prediction products as the support, dynamic and statistical diagnosis and analysis, in order to draw scientific conclusions carefully. In late October of each year, the National Climate Center organizes climate experts from national scientific research institutes and business units to conduct scientific consultation and judgment on the winter climate situation and issue official forecasts. With regard to the winter climate trend in 2018-2019, the National Climate Center preliminarily predicted in the near future that the temperature in most regions of China is expected to be high in winter, and the possibility of cold winter is unlikely.
Reasons why cold winter is unlikely in 2018
First, since June 2018, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean has become warmer and has been developing continuously. This warming will continue to develop and an El Nino event will be formed in the winter of 2018-2019. In the event of El Nino, the winter monsoon intensity in East Asia is weak, and the temperature in China is generally high; secondly, the winter temperature in China is affected by the synergy of the circulation systems of the winter monsoon in East Asia. According to the consistent prediction of climate models at home and abroad, the general atmospheric circulation in Europe and Asia in winter 2018-2019 is mainly latitudinal, which is not conducive to frequent cold air activities and large-scale warming of temperature in China. With the approaching of the forecast time limit, the forecast results of each model tend to be warmer than before.
As the official Department of climate monitoring, prediction and assessment services, the National Climate Center has been closely monitoring the evolution of the climate system, including the impact of the evolution of the ocean, ice and snow and the atmospheric circulation system on the climate, as well as the prediction and update of dynamic climate models, and timely releasing the latest prediction products.
Because of the complexity and scientificity of climate prediction, the meteorological law of the people's Republic of China clearly stipulates that the competent meteorological departments at all levels shall, in accordance with their duties, issue public meteorological forecast and disastrous weather alarm to the society, and timely supplement or revise them according to the weather changes. No other organization or individual may issue public meteorological forecast and disastrous weather alarm to the society. The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration is the only official department for the release of short-term climate prediction products in China.