For the car owners, is this year a year of endless complaints? Is it desperate to face soaring oil prices? At 24:00 on July 9, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel will usher in a new round of price adjustment window. Many institutions expect the oil price to rise for the eighth time in the year, which is likely to be the biggest increase in the year. So, the car owners may as well fill up the fuel in advance.
Price adjustment of domestic oil price or the biggest increase in the year
According to the estimation of Longzhong information, it is estimated that the corresponding increase in the price of domestic refined oil is 270 yuan / ton. The range estimated by Zhuo Chuang information is 265 yuan / ton.
'this price adjustment will be the eighth increase since 2018, and it is likely to be the biggest increase in the year. "Said Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong information.
The reporter of zhongxin.com noted that since this year, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel has been increased by a large margin twice. On April 26, 255 yuan per ton of gasoline and 245 yuan per ton of diesel were increased; on May 25, 260 yuan per ton of gasoline and 250 yuan per ton of diesel were increased.
According to calculations of Zhuo Chuang information, if the oil price is increased this round, it will increase by about 0.21 yuan per litre, a large margin.
At present, the retail price limit of No. 92 gasoline in most regions of the country is 7.1-7.3 yuan / liter, which is still in the era of "7 yuan". If the increase is implemented, the retail price limit of No.92 gasoline will be moved up to 7.3-7.5 yuan / litre.
Li Yan said that there is little change in the current gas station preferences. The main gas stations, such as Sinopec, have more preferential ranges of 0.5-0.7 yuan / liter, while private gas stations have more preferential ranges of 0.5-1.2 yuan / liter.
The future oil price fluctuation and the game among oil producing countries
According to the measures for the administration of oil price, the maximum retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel is linked to the international oil price. The price increase is related to the recent turbulent international crude oil market.
In the past month, the United States has been pressing the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase production in order to stabilize oil prices. On June 23, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an agreement at the meeting to appropriately increase crude oil production from July, which is expected to increase the daily supply of international crude oil market by nearly 1 million barrels in the second half of the year.
However, analysts generally believe that in the context of warmer demand in the international crude oil market, this increase in production may not change the trend of tight market supply. Therefore, instead of falling, international oil prices rose sharply after the meeting.
On June 26, the U.S. State Department said that companies importing crude oil from Iran must reduce their imports to zero before November 4. As the third largest oil producer of OPEC, Iran currently exports more than 2 million barrels of crude oil per day.
According to a June 27 announcement by the U.S. energy information administration, the national commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 9.9 million barrels, far more than the market expected.
"The United States requires many countries to stop importing crude oil from Iran, which brings the expectation of tight supply. In addition, the downward expectation of U.S. crude oil inventory and the instability of Libya's export have all brought strong impetus, which eventually led to a substantial increase in international oil prices. "Li Yan pointed out.
On July 3, WTI crude oil futures price in the United States broke the $75 / barrel threshold for the first time since November 2014, and Brent crude oil futures price also rose to an intraday high of $78.30 / barrel.
Xue Shan, an oil product analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, believes that the current US crude oil production has stagnated, and the increase in North American crude oil demand will provide some support for oil prices. As a result, oil prices are likely to remain high in the short term.
Another analyst said that the future oil price fluctuation still depends on the game between oil producing countries. Under the trend of the United States and Russia tending to stabilize the oil price, the international oil price will probably have a high volatility in the future.