The Sino US trade war is now in a state of tension. Who can win the most? On April 3, 2018, the United States released a list of 1300 Chinese products proposed to levy tariffs based on the results of the "301 survey", covering aerospace, information and communication technology, robotics, medicine and machinery industries, with a total scale of about $50 billion.
The second round of trade friction between China and the United States has begun.
On April 3, 2018, the United States released a list of 1300 Chinese products proposed to levy tariffs based on the results of the "301 survey", covering aerospace, information and communication technology, robotics, medicine and machinery industries, with a total scale of about $50 billion. The U.S. trade representative proposed imposing an additional 25% tariff on Chinese products on the list to compensate for the technological losses suffered by the United States.
China fought back quickly. On April 4, with the approval of the State Council, the tariff Committee of the State Council decided to impose a 25% tariff on 106 commodities of 14 categories, including soybeans, automobiles and chemicals, originating in the United States. The implementation date will be separately announced by the Tariff Commission of the State Council according to the implementation of the US government's additional tariff on our goods.
On the same day, China also filed a request for consultation under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism on the US tax proposal under the 301 investigation against China, and officially launched the WTO dispute settlement process.
Open door to negotiation
Before that, China and the United States have made a great effort.
On March 8, President trump of the United States signed an announcement that the import of steel and aluminum products threatened the national security of the United States. He decided to impose tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum products (i.e. 232 measures) from March 23. On March 23, China's Ministry of Commerce released a list of products subject to the suspension of the 232 measures for the import of steel and aluminum products from the United States and solicited public opinions.
China also filed a request for trade compensation consultation with the United States in the WTO on March 26 in accordance with the safeguards agreement, but the United States refused to respond. In view of the possibility that the two sides did not reach an agreement, on March 29, China informed the WTO of the suspension of the list of concessions, and decided to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States, so as to balance the loss of interests caused to China by the US 232 measures.
On April 2, the State Council of China officially announced the decision to impose tariffs on 128 imported goods of 7 categories originating in the United States, which came into force on the same day.
Xiong yuan, a senior researcher of Pangu think tank, said in an interview with the international financial news: 'the official start of the Sino US trade war should be on March 23, when the Ministry of Commerce issued a list of products that were suspended from concessions in response to the 232 measures for US imports of steel and aluminum products. China's response to the US 301 investigation is the symbol of the full opening of the Sino US trade war. China does not want to fight a trade war, but it is not afraid to fight a trade war. '
Compared with domestic experts, Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance, and Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce, were more cautious in their wording at the press briefing held on April 4.
In response to questions from foreign media, Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance, pointed out that at the beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, the trade volume between China and the United States was only US $2.5 billion. By 2017, the trade volume between China and the United States had reached US $580 billion, an increase of 232 times. With such a rapid development of economic relations and such a large amount of trade, there are inevitably trade frictions. Trade frictions have always been emphasized on the principle of mutual respect, through policy communication and consultation, and in accordance with the rules of the WTO. This is a principle that both China and the United States, as important members of the WTO, should abide by.
In response to questions from the media, Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce, said: 'we have been forced to take these measures, and we have been restrained. '
Wang also pointed out that "China is not willing to fight" trade war ", because there are no winners in" trade war ". But we are not afraid to fight & lsquo; trade war & rsquo;. If someone insists on fighting & lsquo; trade war & rsquo;, we will accompany them to the end. '
'China's consistent position is that the door to negotiation and consultation is always open. If the US side is willing to talk, we are willing to negotiate and resolve differences on the basis of equal consultation and mutual respect. 'Wang Shouwen stressed.
On the same day, President trump tweeted that "we are not fighting a trade war with China".
Made in China 2025
On April 3, the United States Trade Representative Office released a list of proposed Chinese goods to be subject to tariffs. In fact, as early as March 22, President trump of the United States signed a presidential memorandum. According to the 301 investigation results, the United States Trade Representative Office was instructed to formulate a specific plan for the collection of tariffs on Chinese goods within 15 days.
The so-called 301 investigation originated from section 301 of the U.S. trade act of 1974. The clause authorizes U.S. trade representatives to initiate an investigation into 'unreasonable or unfair trade practices' of other countries, and to recommend unilateral sanctions to the president of the United States after the investigation.
After the announcement of this proposal, there will be 60 days of public consultation period, and the final sanctions list of 301 investigation will be published when it expires. The U.S. public may submit written comments on the contents of the list and tax rates to the office of trade representative before May 11. In addition, the 301 investigation committee will hold a hearing on the contents of the list on May 15 and accept the public opinion again before May 22.
It is worth noting that the USTR said in its announcement that 'China has been forcing us enterprises to transfer high-tech and knowledge patents to domestic enterprises. The purpose of China's doing so is to achieve the goal of "made in China 2025" and occupy a dominant position in the future economic competition. The starting point of this list is to crack down on China's manufacturing industry and minimize the harm to the U.S. economy. '
Made in China 2025 is a document released by the State Council in 2015, and it is the first ten-year program of action for China to implement the strategy of building a strong manufacturing country.
Wang pointed out at the briefing that "made in China 2025" is in line with China's obligations under the WTO framework. The purpose of "made in China 2025" is to provide some strategic guidance and information guidance for the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. The "made in China 2025" initiative is transparent, open and non discriminatory. Not only Chinese enterprises, but also foreign enterprises, not only state-owned enterprises, but also private enterprises can participate. Therefore, American enterprises are welcome to participate in the "made in China 2025" initiative.
Wang stressed that "made in China 2025" has some indicators, which are predictive, guiding and not mandatory. In fact, many countries have similar guiding indicators and guiding plans. During the Clinton administration, a national infrastructure plan was formulated to take the information superhighway as an important measure to revitalize the U.S. economy. We think "made in China 2025" is similar to this. During the Obama administration, the Obama administration also formulated a "export doubling" plan, announcing that exports will double within five years. The European Union also has plans for an 'industrial Renaissance'.
Xiong Yuan pointed out to the international financial news: 'the list of proposed tariffs on Chinese goods released by the US trade representative's office mainly involves China's information and communication technology, aerospace, robotics, medicine, machinery and other industries, which to a large extent refers to China's high-end manufacturing industry that is to be vigorously developed in the future. It is the us that is really trying to contain China and China's rise strategically Positive purpose. '
To reverse the trade imbalance requires the cooperation of the United States
In addition to the "made in China 2025" plan, another big excuse for the United States to provoke trade disputes is the huge trade deficit between China and the United States.
In response, Wang said at the briefing that it is absolutely unacceptable for us president trump to ask China to reduce its US $100 billion trade surplus with the US.
Wang said that the trade surplus deficit is determined by market forces, by the overall economic policy and economic structure of the United States, and that the Chinese family cannot reduce the surplus. Only through the joint efforts of the two sides, can the trade surplus or deficit be gradually alleviated. It is impossible to determine any absolute number. If the government intervenes artificially, it will not work in practice or in theory.
Wei Shangjin, chairman of the academic committee of the Oceanwide School of international finance of Fudan University and Chair Professor of Columbia University, also told the international finance news: "China's trade surplus and US trade deficit ultimately reflect the imbalance of savings and investment between the two countries. Many of the non market & lsquo; trade measures & rsquo; being considered by the two governments may reduce bilateral trade imbalances, but at the same time, they will increase their imbalances with the rest of the world. Such a solution would cost consumers and even businesses in the two countries and the rest of the world. It is more sustainable and beneficial for China to increase household consumption and the United States to increase domestic savings. '
Wang pointed out that one of the important reasons for the imbalance in Sino US trade is the self restriction of the United States. If we do not export to China, there will be less exports, so there will be a deficit. Such as the high-tech industry in the United States. It is hoped that the US side can relax the export control of high-tech products to China. Only through the joint efforts of both sides can the trade surplus or deficit be gradually eased.
Direct attack on trump ticket warehouse
In China's two rounds of anti system list, agricultural products occupy an important position.
Americans actually know it. Before that, Bloomberg had predicted that because the United States exports more agricultural products to China than any other country, China may impose tariffs on bulk commodities such as soybeans and pork in the United States, and some agricultural products planted in the rural hinterland of the United States, such as cotton, alfalfa, sorghum, are also under consideration.
In the second round of the anti system list, China has offered some trumps such as soybeans and cotton.
Soybean and cotton play an important role in agricultural trade between China and the United States. According to the data, 62% of soybeans and 14% of cotton exported by the United States are sold to China. China is the largest soybean exporter and the second largest cotton exporter of the United States.
According to an editorial in the Wall Street Journal, the US sells US $12.4 billion of soybeans to China every year, which could be replaced by Brazil in the event of a trade war. A recent report released by the U.S. soybean export Commission pointed out that if China responds to U.S. tariff sanctions with tariffs, U.S. soybean exports to China could plummet by 71%.
Hays doffer, President of the American Soybean Association, said that agricultural income in the United States has declined significantly compared with 2013 and is in a difficult recovery period. The trump administration's targeting of the largest trading partner in the U.S. soybean industry is' extremely frustrating '. In terms of changing the trade imbalance between China and the United States, American agriculture is promising, because China is expected to increase soybean imports substantially in the next 10 years. "We should explore how to take action to expand exports to China, rather than risk losing this important market.".
In response to the reporter's questions, Zhu Guangyao pointed out that in 2017, the U.S. exported 32.854 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 34.39% of China's total imports. The export volume was too large. Chinese soybean farmers appealed to the relevant associations. The subsidies of the U.S. government have affected the interests of Chinese soybean farmers. The Chinese government should respect the requirements of Chinese farmers and respect the big China The policy appeal of pea Association. So soybeans are an option for us to reverse this time. But now these products