original title: how will the Sino US trade war develop when China and the United States formally introduce trade protection measures
According to us statistics, in 2017, the US trade deficit in goods with China reached US $375.2 billion, accounting for 46% of the total US trade deficit in goods. In recent years, trump government has introduced a variety of trade and investment protectionist measures against China's export and investment to the United States. It has also launched "301 investigation" against China, refused to abandon the practice of "substitute country" in the anti-dumping investigation, etc., and asked China to take measures to reduce the bilateral trade deficit by 100 billion US dollars.
Lu Feng believes that the US trade sanctions against China reflect the change of US policy towards China. Since Trump came into power, American economic and trade policy towards China has undergone a systematic transformation, which is the result of comprehensive factors, including not only the pressure brought by the strong development of China's economy to the United States, but also the influence of factors such as the anxiety of the United States about the lack of its own economic growth momentum and the position orientation of the domestic political and government team of the United States.
At the same time, Lu Feng analyzed that the U.S. economic and trade policy to China and the overall strategic phased adjustment are the result of a series of complex factors such as the relative change of economic strength between China and the United States, the evolution of domestic political situation and social ideological trend, and the position preference of the government's main political team. China's economic rise has put pressure on the United States in many ways and led to anxiety.
In addition, Lu Feng believes that under the environment of loss and crisis caused by insufficient economic growth, the U.S. government tries to find a way to deal with it by adjusting domestic economic policies and external economic and trade relations, especially by adjusting Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations to change the adverse situation. 'at present, some key members of Trump's main political team hold a more conservative or even hawkish position, which also plays an important role in explaining the change of us China policy. '
There are five possibilities to fight or not to fight a trade war
On the day when the United States announced the "301" investigation result and announced the tax increase of 60 billion US dollars on Chinese imported goods, China fought back. The Ministry of Commerce issued the list of suspended products with concessions for 232 measures on American imported steel and aluminum products and solicited public opinions. It plans to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States. Wei Jianguo, vice director of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the first batch of products was announced After the suspension of the list of concessional products, China is studying the second and third lists. For example, the measures China can take in the field of aircraft and chips are not limited to the field of commodities, and other industries such as tourism may also have no specific implementation time for the US measures.
As the Sino US trade war intensified, the communication between the two sides did not stop. On March 24, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, director of the China finance office and Chinese leader of the China US comprehensive economic dialogue, spoke with US Treasury Secretary manuchin at his request. According to foreign media reports, mnuchin is considering coming to Beijing to continue in-depth negotiations.
In the future, which side will China US trade go to? What impact will it have on China? Lu Feng mentioned that there are five possibilities for us to fight against trade war. First, although China and the United States have a strong voice now, the trade war is more unfavorable to us. With China's active solution, conflicts can be avoided, and finally the outcome of non trade war will be formed, which is better. Second, in the event that the domestic political and economic situation of the United States is going to change more than expected, it is difficult for the U.S. government to focus on the issue of China's policy change. This is also possible, although it is a very small probability, but it cannot be completely excluded. In both cases, there is no trade war. Third, if there is a trade war, it may affect foreign demand. He will sanction you five hundred and you will sanction him five hundred. But we have more exports than them, so from the perspective of the whole economy, we can bear more than the United States. Fourth, if the trade war breaks out, will some radical emotions prevail in China, affect the process of our reform and opening up, or even force politics to turn left? This may be a very big wave of concern. We need to guard against it, but the probability is very small. Fifth, if there is a trade war, China can consider accelerating the process of reform and opening up, giving the United States more room to accept China and recognize China strategically. This probability is also small.
'as long as the fourth possibility is avoided, I don't think China will lose. Other possibilities, I think China will win. It's just a matter of winning more and winning less. In this sense, I think China's policy is not to be afraid of anything, and I think it's right, "said Lu Feng.
Lu Feng believes that 'there are no winners in the trade war, and China's current policy of restraint is reasonable. It is still possible to avoid a trade war, which should be fought for. At the same time, I think there are some changes in the dialogue, economy, trade and overall policy of the United States. Observing the aggressive momentum of the 301 survey and comparing the characteristics of the survey in history, we can not exclude that the two countries may have a trade war for the first time. We should have a pragmatic and sober understanding of this.