In the face of the most severe trade conflict between China and the United States, it is understandable that the common people pay attention to asset prices, house prices and the trend of RMB exchange rate. So what will be the impact of the Sino US trade war on ordinary people?
On the evening of April 1, the official website of the Ministry of Finance announced that, with the approval of the State Council, the Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to suspend the duty reduction obligation on 128 items of 7 categories of imported goods originating in the United States from April 2, 2018, and to impose duties on 120 items of imported goods, including fruits and products, 15% on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate, and 8 importers, including pork and products The additional tariff rate is 25%. The current bonded and tax relief policies remain unchanged.
After China takes the initiative, the United States may increase its efforts to impose tariffs on China and expand its projects. It may indicate that the trade negotiations between the two sides are in deadlock or collapse completely. In this trade war, China chose 128 products of the United States to terminate the tax preference or increase the tariff rate, which equals to increase the tariff rate in disguised form. From the list of China, the project is relatively miscellaneous and trivial, but it focuses on two categories of commodities: first, agricultural products including fresh frozen meat, etc., and second, steel and aluminum products, etc. The detailed analysis of these products has no direct impact on China, especially the people, but the indirect analysis will bring some impacts. For example, after the preferential tax rates on agricultural and sideline products in the United States are imposed or cancelled, the import prices will directly increase, and the consumption costs of domestic consumers will inevitably rise. However, as China is a large agricultural country, its agricultural and sideline products are highly replaceable, which will not cause product shortage, and may also bring benefits to domestic agricultural and sideline product production and sales enterprises. However, it is certain that consumers' consumption cost will increase. Because many agricultural and sideline products imported from the United States are cheaper than those produced in China.
For steel and aluminum products, tariff concessions or increases, from the current project point of view, it is very likely to pass on to ordinary people. For example, the increased tariff on stainless steel oil and gas casings will enter into the cost of oil and gas sales price, which will eventually lead to higher oil and gas prices, and consumers will bear this part of the tariff. In economics, there is a concept of tax destination, that is, it must depend on who is the ultimate tax payer? Generally, tax will enter the terminal goods, and ultimately be borne by consumers.
This time, though, it looks like 128 kinds of goods, but the total is only $3 billion, which is just symbolic. The impact on American agricultural industry, farms, steel and aluminum products enterprises will not be too great, nor will it affect Chinese consumers.
However, we need to remind that we are most worried about domestic agricultural product dealers and oil and gas operators taking the opportunity to raise prices under the guise of higher import tariffs on raw materials, and taking the opportunity to raise prices beyond the range and within the scope of commodities to seek 'unjust gains'. In this regard, the regulatory authorities must strengthen supervision.
According to Reuters, U.S. government officials said the government will release this week a list of tariffs on China's exports to the United States. The list is basically for high-tech products, corresponding to exports of $50 billion to $60 billion, and will take effect in about two months.
From the perspective of the US $50-60 billion tariff to be imposed on China, the list is basically oriented to high-tech products, namely the "made in China 2025" project previously mentioned. This has a great impact on the entry of Chinese high-tech enterprises into the United States, including Huawei and other enterprises. Both direct and indirect impacts are on Chinese enterprises with strong innovation ability, whose purpose is to weaken the competitiveness of Chinese high-tech enterprises and the goal of occupying the global market. In the final analysis, it is to weaken China's future scientific and technological strength, and hinder China's economic structural transformation and the most fundamental economic development foundation in the future. America's plan is a lot more vicious.
At the same time, in terms of quota, the United States is $60 billion, while China is $3 billion, 20 times of that. This determines that China will have more follow-up measures in the future. If the United States continues to follow up, the problem will be serious if there is a vicious circle of tariff retaliation.
Ma Guangyuan: how the Sino US trade war affects people's asset security
Why do you say that the United States is not fighting a trade war. Back to the sanctions list currently listed by both sides, China sanctions American agricultural products, because this is the main product exported by the United States to China, while the United States does not sanction clothing, shoes and hats, ordinary mechanical and electrical products, but directly to industrial robots, new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, aviation products, high-speed rail gear Prepared for key development areas of "made in China 2025". Obviously, there is a significant gap in the pattern. China aims at the major export products of the United States, while the United States aims at the industries that can pose a huge threat to the manufacturing industry of the United States in the future. One is to focus on the present and the other is to focus on the future. That is to say, in fact, since the beginning of the trade war, China has been in the downwind, and its understanding of the conflict is obviously low.
Of course, in the face of the most severe trade conflict between China and the United States, it is understandable that the common people pay attention to asset prices, house prices and the trend of RMB exchange rate. After all, the trade war has not yet begun, and the global capital market has been bloodied. For the Chinese people, it is entirely understandable to pay attention to the safety of their assets. Based on my own analysis and judgment, I can tell the Chinese people:
First, the trade war between China and the United States is unlikely to start. It will probably end with China's concession. But China's concession does not mean that it is bad for China's economy. I think it is good for China's market-oriented economy and the common people;
Second, the RMB exchange rate will not fall, but will maintain a rising trend. For China and the United States, one of the ways to reduce the trade deficit is to appreciate the RMB, which may be a helpless choice;
Third, if the appreciation of RMB is the trend, it means that China's asset prices will not fall substantially, so don't worry about the collapse of China's house prices;
Fourth, in order to deal with the trade friction between China and the United States, the pace of deleveraging should be greatly slowed down to avoid the risk of artificial adjustment.