On March 23, 2018, the trump government announced that it would impose tariffs on US $50 billion worth of goods imported from China every year, and restrict China's investment in the US science and technology industry. A trade war between China and the US is about to break out. The Sino US trade war is now in full swing. How does it affect China? What kind of attitude should China take?
Once a trade war breaks out, in what form? What impact does it have on China's economy? What industries or enterprises will it have the greatest impact on? Only by carefully studying these problems and doing a good job of 'responding' can we strive for the initiative and prevent the expansion of trade risks.
Who is bad in the domestic industry? Who is good?
From the perspective of China, once Sino US trade war appears, it will inevitably bring direct negative impact on China's economic growth and labor market stability in the short term. In 2016, China's exports to the United States accounted for 18% of China's total exports and 4.4% of GDP. The export of goods to the United States is not only concentrated in traditional labor-intensive industries, such as toys, furniture and textiles, accounting for about one-third of the total export of the industry. With the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, the export of capital intensive industries such as electronic machinery to the United States has also increased significantly, and the export volume has surpassed that of labor-intensive industries.
In addition, what other industries will be affected?
Financial industry: A-share bears pressure and avoids risks
In terms of direct investment, US direct investment in China has accounted for 3.3% of China's total FDI in the past decade. In the past decade, the number of us enterprises in China has exceeded 1 million. The proportion of China's major export commodities in other major export countries has been quite high. There is very limited space to further improve the export proportion and market share. Finally, it is estimated that it is difficult to find a substitute market for the US market Field.
Ping An Securities believes that the upgrading of Sino US trade war will also bring fluctuations to China's financial market.
By comparing the market share of A-share (Shenwan class II) which is greatly affected by the trade war, it can be found that the market share of chemical industry (including plastic rubber), machinery, non-ferrous metal and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, home appliances, steel and textile clothing (including footwear and leather products) is more than 1%, the market share of furniture is 0.5%, and the total market share of each industry is 21.1%.
If the market value is used to measure the impact coefficient of the sector on the whole market, the U.S. will launch a trade war in the fields of chemical industry (including plastic rubber), machinery, non-ferrous metal and non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, home appliances, steel and textile clothing (including footwear and leather products), which will not only bring negative effects to the relevant sectors, but also have a significant impact on the whole stock market of China.
Guangzhou Wanlong believes that in the short term, the index is more likely to weaken under pressure. If there is a large-scale panic diving under the pressure of short selling, then Unicorn concept stocks will also have a strong make-up drop, so the current investors involved in concept speculation should keep an eye on it. And investors who haven't eaten this cake game and other subjects should not rush to copy the bottom, let alone fill up their positions at once, and for the time being, control their positions and guard against risks.
But at the same time, the decline in risk appetite is good for safe haven products such as gold and bond markets. As of 11 yesterday, London gold was up nearly $10.7 from its opening.
Agriculture: benefit from China's anti system action
China plans to impose tariffs on US imported products, tentatively including 7 categories and 128 tax products. According to the statistics of 2017, it involves about 3 billion US dollars of exports from the United States to China. The first part includes 120 taxes, involving US $977 million in exports to China, including fresh fruits, dried fruits and nut products, wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng, seamless steel pipes and other products, with a 15% tariff to be imposed. In the second part, there are eight taxes in total, involving US $1.992 billion in exports to China, including pork and products, recycled aluminum and other products, and a 25% tariff is proposed.
The sharp increase in the tariff on pork products has not only boosted the concept of pork in the stock market, but also brought positive news to the enterprises engaged in pig breeding. In addition, some fruit growers will also benefit from higher tariffs.
Furniture industry: output scale may decrease by 15%
The gross profit margin of furniture, electronic products, textile and clothing, leather products and electrical equipment manufacturing is almost all lower than 45%.
Therefore, if the United States imposes a 45% tariff, exports to the United States may be mostly or even completely stopped. Among them, the furniture industry is the most seriously affected, with the output scale dropping by 15%, and the output of the other three industries will also drop by more than 5%.
High tech industry: will be impacted
China also relies on the United States for technology import and financing. For example, many high-tech products imported by China, the key technology only held by the United States, once the United States stops exporting such core technology to China, it may have an impact on China's industrial supply chain. For example, Intel and AMD are very popular in the use of personal computer CPU. The vast majority of Chinese mobile phones are also equipped with GPS global positioning system. Once there is a trade war, it will take some time for China to find an alternative to such technology.
According to the fixed income research team of CITIC Securities, the reasons behind the trade war are: both Trump's political demands and the purpose of restricting the development of China's high-tech industry, and the relevant industries will be affected to some extent.
On February 28 this year, the trump Administration issued the 2018 trade policy outline and 2017 annual report, which said, "to ensure the leading position of the United States in research and technology, and to protect the U.S. economy from unfair access to our intellectual property competitors.". In response, the United States launched a 301 investigation to prevent China from acquiring technology and intellectual property through unreasonable and discriminatory measures.
Technology intensive industries are the most seriously affected by intellectual property disputes. This is confirmed by the information disclosed by Robert lethezer of the US Senate Finance Committee, who mentioned that the tariffs were levied on aviation, modern railway, new energy vehicles and high-tech products. In recent years, China's high and new technology has further developed, and it is in an advantageous position in the fields of high-voltage transmission, high-speed rail, alternative energy vehicles and supercomputing. However, as far as China's high-tech industry is concerned, there is still a need for a broad overseas market at this stage. If the Sino US trade war is further fermented, China's high-tech industry will be impacted and affected to some extent.
Turbulence faced by domestic enterprises
The industry turmoil will certainly affect many domestic enterprises, especially those with close economic ties with the United States.
According to the "double anti" investigation launched by the United States, in addition to the highly competitive steel industry, there are also electronic equipment industry and mechanical and electrical industry damaged in the Sino US trade war. China's electronic products are not only ranked second in the proportion of export products, but also the product categories exported to the United States are the most sensitive to policy. Therefore, the impact of the trade war is likely to be known to China Famous electronic enterprises bring great turbulence.
Iron and steel enterprises
Shanghai Baosteel, Shougang, Anshan Iron and steel, Wuhan Iron and steel and other well-known state-owned enterprises and listed companies.
On March 21, China's iron and steel enterprises won the 337 investigation in the United States (a quasi judicial procedure conducted by the U.S. International Trade Commission in accordance with Section 337 of the tariff act of 1930 to investigate the infringement of intellectual property rights and other unfair competition in import trade and decide whether it is necessary to take remedial measures) It avoids a big crisis in China's iron and steel industry, but at the same time, the ensuing trade war makes the iron and steel industry fall into a complex situation again.
Chemical enterprise
Famous state-owned enterprises and listed companies such as Sinopec, CNPC, CNOOC, Sinochem, Wanda holding, Shanghai Huayi, Rongsheng petrochemical, etc.
Chemical enterprises and iron and steel enterprises are often mentioned at the same time, and this Sino US trade war is no exception. However, compared with the steel industry, the chemical industry is slightly damaged, and its sensitivity to policy is not as good as the electronic industry in the export industry.
Paper products enterprises
Chenming paper, Fujian HengAn paper, Guangzhou Weida paper, Guangdong Zhongshun paper, etc.
The sudden increase in the price of paper products in China is obvious to all consumers, and the famous brands such as "Qingfeng", "xinxiangyin", "Vida" and "jierou" used in daily life are all from the above-mentioned well-known enterprises. Compared with the export of textile and agricultural products, the export of paper products is relatively disadvantageous, but due to the low sensitivity of the industry, the negative impact is limited. Major paper products enterprises may need to adjust policies or transform to cope with difficulties.
Clothing enterprise
Youngor Group Co., Ltd., Hongdou Group Co., Ltd., Hailan Group Co., Ltd. and Shanshan Group Co., Ltd.
The clothing industry is the top one in China's export industry, but in this Sino-U.S. trade game, due to the high sensitivity of the industry, it has attracted much attention, and its export prospects are grim.
China's trade war has brought more than negative effects. To some extent, we can turn this bad thing into a good thing. For a long time, most of China's products exported to the United States are labor-intensive products and low value-added products. Due to the labor cost, such products are indeed easy to impact similar enterprises in the United States. Chinese enterprises can take this opportunity to improve the value of knowledge and the technological content of products through technological upgrading and transformation, so that the competitiveness of enterprises' products is no longer only dependent on price, which is not bad for the long-term development of Chinese enterprises.
Military enterprises
China nuclear industry, China nuclear construction, aerospace science and technology, aerospace science and industry, China shipbuilding industry, China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, China Electronics, etc. are basically among the top ten military enterprises in China, and are state-owned enterprises.
To some extent, the advantage of trade war to military enterprises is based on the pessimistic prediction of trade games or diplomatic relations, but it is undeniable that the escalation of trade conflicts will bring business opportunities to military enterprises.
New energy enterprises
Wuxi Suntech Power Holding Co., Ltd., BYD Automobile Co., Ltd., Sinovel wind power technology (Group) Co., Ltd., etc.
The optimistic situation of new energy is like the optimistic prediction of "intelligent manufacturing upgrading" inspired by the pressure of trade war. New energy covers a wide range, such as photovoltaic industry, wind power industry, solar energy industry, nuclear energy industry, etc. are hot projects.
How will China respond?
Some experts have analyzed that China may target its counterattack on agricultural products, such as soybeans, which account for a large proportion of U.S. exports to China, and may also impose tariffs on imports of high-tech products such as automobiles and airplanes from the United States. In fact, China's Ministry of Commerce has taken action. On March 22, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it will continue to levy anti-dumping duties on imported photo paper from the EU, the United States and Japan.
What do experts and businessmen think at this time?
Guan Qingyou (a famous economist):
President trump and the U.S. government launched a trade war against many countries. This is just the beginning, not the end. After the financial crisis in 2008, the United States has similar behavior to China, which is a case in point, a tactical behavior. This is a systematic strategic act.
The United States has been trying to contain China since the late 1990s. Unfortunately, because of the global anti-terrorism triggered by the September 11, 2001 incident, there was a "miscarriage". After China's accession to the WTO, the United States did not expect China to become the "world"