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Latest news of China US trade war in 2018

Original title: Forecast of the consequences of China US trade war in 2018

Latest news of China US trade war in 2018

At a glance of the forecast of the consequences of the Sino US trade war in 2018, what is the impact of the Sino US trade war on the common people? What is the impact of Trump's restrictions on the investment of Chinese enterprises on China's taxation? See the following for details.

At around 0:50 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, President trump formally signed a memorandum of understanding on trade with China at the White House. Trump announced that it is possible to impose tariffs on $60 billion of goods imported from China and restrict Chinese companies' investment in the US.

According to the memorandum signed on the same day, the USTR office will work out a specific plan to impose tariffs on Chinese goods within 15 days. At the same time, the U.S. trade representative office will also sue China at the World Trade Organization on related issues. In addition, the U.S. Treasury will issue a plan within 60 days to restrict Chinese enterprises from investing in and acquiring U.S. enterprises. According to the White House press release, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on aerospace, information and communication technology, machinery and other products.

After the announcement of tariff measures, trump signed a memorandum and said that plans for tariff action against China due to intellectual property issues had been in the pipeline for a long time. This is only the first step in many measures. He had asked China to immediately reduce the US trade deficit with China by $100 billion.

Trump said: 'we have a lot of intellectual property disputes with China. "He pointed out that China affects hundreds of billions of dollars of trade every year.

Latest news of China US trade war in 2018

What is the impact of the Sino US trade war on the common people?

It's going to crash.

Since January 2007, China's total money supply, M2, has surpassed several major economies of Japan, Europe and the United States in a row. At present, it is twice and half that of Europe and the United States, and more than three times that of Japan. China's M2 is equivalent to about 80% of the total m2 of the three major economies. Such a high M2 needs two important drivers: the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet and the credit expansion of the banking system. China's central bank has the largest balance sheet in the world, surpassing the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

However, under the trade war, trade is bound to shrink dramatically, and foreign investment will also retreat. China's foreign exchange accounts have declined sharply, and foreign exchange accounts are the basis of RMB issuance, which also means that currency issuance will be reduced. The pressure on the devaluation of the RMB is even greater, while the currency is still issued with a bang to protect the unemployment rate. How long can this situation last? If not, what will be the consequences? You can see the performance of Japan's bubble economy after the explosion.

Latest news of China US trade war in 2018

Prediction of the consequences of China US trade war in 2018

There is no doubt that when a trade war breaks out between China and the United States, both economies will suffer.

Ian & middot; Bray, President of Eurasia Group, an international relations think-tank based in New York, defaults that if a trade war breaks out between China and the United States, China will suffer greater losses in the early stage; however, he also points out that trump has seriously overestimated the international influence of the United States. For example, with the exception of Japan, most of the U.S. allies are reluctant to see the Sino-U.S. conflict, and begin to alienate U.S. policies to hedge risks. In addition, Trump and his team did not realize that China's ability to bear the loss of trade war is far greater than that of the United States. '

According to the financial times, for the Sino US trade war, Soros also made four shocking conclusions: the trade war with China will slow down the economic growth of the United States, and Trump's China policy will ultimately 'help China enormously'. '

'I think trump will greatly help China to be accepted as a leading member of the international community, and he will even play a more important role than the Chinese themselves. 'said Soros.

Latest news of China US trade war in 2018

"Even if China and the United States fight a trade war, the dominant power of the negotiations is in China. Zhu Min, former vice president of the IMF, said: 'the top five products exported by the United States to China are all greatly influenced by policies, such as aircraft, raw materials, agricultural products, etc.; while the top five products exported by China to the United States are all market-oriented behaviors, such as manufacturing, machine tool equipment, chemical products, etc. Therefore, in terms of negotiation, it is easier for China to retaliate than for the United States. In terms of policy, this is also a very simple fact. '

Some institutions have found that the nominal data shows that in 2015, the US merchandise trade deficit with China was 366 billion US dollars, accounting for almost 50% of the total US merchandise trade deficit, but this figure is misleading: most of China's exports to the US came from processing trade, about 37% of which actually came from parts imported from other countries in the global supply chain.

Zhang Zhiwei of Deutsche Bank and Zhu Min are similar. In his view, the actual effectiveness of the US trade war should be greatly reduced. If the United States launches a trade war with China, it will give priority to the following industries: electronic products (including computers and mobile phones), electrical equipment, textiles and clothing, furniture and automobiles. But after detailed deduction, it is difficult to launch a trade war in these key industries against China: raising tariffs on furniture, textiles and clothing may push up the deficit of the United States against other developing countries; the scale of China's automobile export is limited; electrical and electronic products are mostly made by multinational companies using imported parts.