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When will Beijing officially implement the cancellation of auto purchase restrictions in Guangdong

Recently, Guangdong issued the implementation plan for improving the consumption promotion system and mechanism in Guangdong Province, which proposed to promote the optimization and upgrading of automobile consumption, gradually relax the automobile lottery and bidding indicators in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, expand the purchase scale, and other cities shall not issue automobile purchase restrictions.

The news triggered a heated debate. The current automobile purchase restriction policy in big cities has been implemented for many years. Does a new deal in Guangdong mean that the cancellation of purchase restriction will be gradually promoted nationwide? Under the current economic situation, what impact will the cancellation of automobile purchase restrictions bring? Will Beijing be far behind after Guangdong's deregulation?

New demand

"The national automobile purchase restriction policy was mainly introduced because the city's road management ability was relatively weak at that time, and the pressure of urban traffic and environmental protection was relatively large. The purchase restriction helped to alleviate these two pressures." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, told reporters that China is a through train.

Cui Dongshu pointed out that with the strengthening of urban road management capacity, the automobile purchase restriction policy is of little significance to improve urban congestion and has an inhibitory effect on automobile consumption. As a phased product, it should gradually withdraw from the historical stage.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counselor's office of the State Council, believes that the problem of traffic congestion can not always be solved by 'vehicle restriction'. We should change our thinking and create better conditions for vehicle driving through scientific planning, construction and management of urban roads. Now, technical means such as big data and cloud computing have the conditions to solve the problem of congestion.

Last year, China's auto market suffered a 'cold winter'. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2018, the national automobile sales volume was 28.08 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 23.71 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, the first negative growth since 1990.

In 2019, the cold winter of the auto market has not yet ebbed. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national automobile consumption fell by 3.4% in the first quarter of this year.

In order to boost the development of the automobile industry, at the beginning of this year, the national development and Reform Commission and other ten departments jointly issued the implementation plan for further optimizing supply, promoting steady growth of consumption and promoting the formation of a strong domestic market (2019), which listed expanding automobile consumption as an important measure. The general direction of the state to promote automobile consumption has been clarified.

In this context, the state has made further efforts to cancel the automobile purchase restriction policy.

In April this year, the implementation plan 2019-2020 (Exposure Draft) for further expanding the updated consumption of automobiles, household appliances and consumer electronics products and promoting the development of circular economy prepared by the national development and Reform Commission was circulated at the market level, in which the measures to cancel the purchase restriction of automobiles attracted wide attention.

According to media reports, the exposure draft clearly prohibits all localities from issuing new regulations on car purchase restrictions, and the number of license plate increment indicators in 2019 and 2020 must be increased by 50% and 100% respectively on the basis of 2018; Cancel the restrictions on car purchase for families without cars, and set no quantitative restrictions on the application for updating indicators of passenger cars.

In addition, the exposure draft also requires that all localities shall not implement traffic and purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles, and the implemented similar policies must be cancelled.

In this regard, the national development and Reform Commission responded on April 18 that it is learning about the relevant situation. The introduction of all policies should be repeatedly demonstrated and fully solicited the opinions of relevant parties.

"Under the current situation, relaxing the purchase restriction policy is conducive to stimulating automobile consumption and stabilizing consumer confidence and expectations. With the continuous improvement of residents' living standards and consumption ability, it is an inevitable trend for the government to encourage automobile consumption. " Cui Dongshu said that the cancellation of automobile purchase restrictions is a policy trend that the state is trying to promote. The automobile sales in the areas where the purchase restrictions are cancelled are bound to increase, especially the increment of new energy vehicles will be very obvious.

As the forefront of reform and opening up, Guangdong has made exploratory work in canceling automobile purchase restrictions. After Guangdong, will Beijing's car purchase restriction policy be relaxed?

In Cui Dongshu's view, Beijing, as the national capital, has strong administrative functions, which has its particularity compared with Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Therefore, this can not be regarded as a signal that BAIC motor's purchase restriction or will be cancelled, 'it's hard to say whether Beijing will cancel the purchase restriction at present'.

fresh impetus

In addition to the cancellation of car purchase restrictions, the implementation of the second-hand car export policy also provides new growth space for the auto market.

On May 5, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of public security and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced the start of the export of second-hand cars. The first batch of regions to carry out second-hand car export business include 10 provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai.

The three departments said that carrying out the export of second-hand cars is conducive to stimulating the vitality of the domestic automobile consumption market, promoting the healthy development of the automobile industry and promoting the steady improvement of foreign trade.

Luo Lei, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Circulation Association, pointed out that China's automobile market has entered a period of slow growth, but there is still much room for growth in the overall ownership, and the scale of eliminating and replacing used cars will continue to grow in the future. At this time, opening the second-hand car export market will become an effective way to boost the overall market.

According to statistics, at present, the average cycle for consumers to update vehicles is 4-6 years. After the second-hand car market is revitalized, it will release the energy of demand for new cars.

In addition, the data show that in 2018, the trading volume of second-hand cars in China reached 13.82 million, less than half of the new car sales (28.08 million), while the trading volume of second-hand cars in developed countries is twice that of new cars, and the export of second-hand cars accounts for 10% of the trading volume. In contrast, China's second-hand car export has great potential.

Where is the main destination of China's second-hand car export? One belt, one road, is the key to the development of the export trade. Therefore, the industry one widely believed that one belt, one road, and the other countries will become an important potential market for second-hand car exports.

According to the analysis one in the industry, one belt, one road, the country and region along the border, the number of thousands of people is low, and the demand for high cost and used cars is strong. Although the purchasing power is weak, the automobile consumption power is still growing.

The data of China Automotive Technology Research Center also proves the great potential of the target market. Data show that the global demand for cars in developing countries and regions has reached $100 billion, of which used cars account for 60% - 80%.

The second-hand car export business will play a driving role in China's export trade. Li Xiang, President of the chamber of Commerce of automobile dealers of the all China Federation of industry and commerce, said that if the export of second-hand cars is liberalized, the export volume of 60 billion will be realized based on the annual export of 1 million vehicles and the average price of 60000 yuan / vehicle. At the same time, the export trade of second-hand cars will also drive the export of auto parts and maintenance services, and continue to increase the total trade volume.

Although the prospect is broad, China's second-hand car export still faces many challenges when opening the overseas market at the initial stage due to the cumbersome export procedures of second-hand cars, complex vehicle conditions and different standards of various exporting countries.