What is the eighth rise in oil prices this year? Why does it cost 2 yuan more to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline? According to the survey, this refined oil price will usher in a new round of adjustment. According to the news released on the official website of the national development and Reform Commission, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products, the same below) will be increased by 50 yuan per ton from 24:00 on May 27, 2019. Equivalent to 0.04 yuan per liter of No. 89 gasoline, 0.04 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline, 0.04 yuan per liter of No. 95 gasoline and 0.04 yuan per liter of No. 0 diesel.
It is noteworthy that the current round of price increase of refined oil has been the eighth price increase since this year. Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong information, said that after the price adjustment, based on an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, car owners will spend about 2 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil; According to the models with fuel consumption of 7l-8l for 100 kilometers in the urban area, the average cost per 1000 kilometers will increase by about 3 yuan. For large logistics transport vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost increases by about 16 yuan for every 1000 kilometers. " This price adjustment will increase the cost for private car owners and logistics enterprises. "
According to the statistics of the Beijing News reporter, after the current round of oil price rise, the total increase of gasoline and diesel per ton in China has reached 850 yuan and 835 yuan respectively since this year.
Oil prices are still in the game of long and short factors
The reporter noted that during the current round of refined oil price adjustment (from May 14 to May 27), the international crude oil price is still in the game of long and short factors.
During this period, the production reduction agreements of OPEC member states and non OPEC major oil producing countries are still in progress. In addition, Baker Hughes, a US oil service company, released data showing that the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased by 5 to 797 as of the week of May 24, hitting a new low since March 2018. In addition, the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran has remained tense recently. According to Xinhua news agency, India and other countries have announced to stop buying Iranian crude oil. These factors have pulled the relationship between supply and demand in the crude oil market to the side of tension.
On the other hand, the US crude oil inventory continued to rise. According to the data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of the week of May 17, the US crude oil inventory was about 477 million barrels, an increase of 4.74 million barrels over the previous week, and the US daily average crude oil production was 12.2 million barrels, an increase of 100000 barrels over the previous Sunday. At the same time, the international economy is under great downward pressure due to a variety of uncertain factors. Therefore, the international demand for crude oil may also slow down. These events are bad factors for the crude oil market.
It is noteworthy that although China's current round of refined oil prices are up, wind data show that during the current round of refined oil price adjustment, Brent crude oil and NYSE crude oil showed significant declines, with range declines of 3.67% and 4.41% respectively. Why is there such a 'contrast'? A senior refined oil analyst explained to the Beijing news that the oil price adjustment mainly depends on the overall trend, and the rise and fall of a day or two actually has a limited impact.
It is more likely that the price of refined oil will fall in the next round
It is reported that the next round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on June 11, 2019. Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong information, said that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a downward trend at the beginning, with a range of about 150 yuan / ton. At present, the negative factors in the international crude oil market have become prominent, the worries about global trade risks have intensified, the expectation of crude oil demand has weakened, and the US crude oil inventory has risen to a new high in the past two and a half years, all of which have brought negative inhibition to the price.
From the perspective of COFCO Futures Research Center, the current crude oil market is similar to the early stage of last year's sharp decline in terms of the landing of sanctions, the anti seasonal rise of U.S. inventory, the weakening of macro expectations and the rising volatility of risky assets. Although history will not simply repeat, these signs have been very worthy of attention and evaluation. The time point of short selling (i.e. short selling) may have come.
On May 24, SSE futures released its view that the sharp increase in EIA crude oil inventory announced above also exacerbated the panic of the crude oil market to a certain extent, but more importantly, in the case of the expected decline in demand growth, the market needs new supply interruption factors to stimulate. Otherwise, even if the current market supply is tight, the beneficial effect on oil prices will gradually weaken. Iran's export volume so far in May has fallen to less than 300000 barrels / day. Although there may be some export volume that cannot be tracked, the space that can be reduced in the future is very limited. " In addition, OPEC + is already in a state of excess production reduction, so it is difficult to hope to expand the scale of production reduction in the second half of the year. We have not seen new supply contraction potential yet. "